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Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

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Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#131

Post by lultimouomo »

notyourday wrote: post #117
lultimouomo wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's patently false. Antivirals slow the reproduction rate of the virus giving your immune system the upper hand; monoclonal antibodies do exactly what your immune system would do, they bind to the virus either neutralizing it or allowing macrophages to detect and destroy it.

Except that CDC disagrees: Herpes: https://www.cdc.gov/std/herpes/treatment.htm Is there a cure or treatment for herpes? There is no cure for herpes. Antiviral medications can, however, prevent or shorten outbreaks during the period of time the person takes the medication. In addition, daily suppressive therapy (i.e. daily use of antiviral medication) for herpes can reduce the likelihood of transmission to partners.…

> During the 2018 eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo outbreak, four investigational treatments were initially available to treat patients with confirmed Ebola. For two of those treatments, called regeneron (REGN-EB3) and mAb114, overall survival was much higher. These two antiviral drugs currently remain in use for patients with confirmed Ebola.

How is this not a cure? If you mean that the cure doesn't save 100% of those who take it, than we have no cure for bacteria as well.

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#132

Post by scotty79 »

I think you just gradually make lockdown less strict to throttle number of cases so that it's on the level your healthcare can handle and do that till most of your population already had the virus. And hope for new treatments, vaccines and that immunity from already having the virus lasts at least a year or two.

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#133

Post by fspeech »

cperciva wrote: post #10

If social distancing can bring the number of cases down to a manageable level, you can switch to a traditional public health approach: Test anyone showing symptoms, and aggressively trace and test any contacts of known cases.

You also need universal mask wearing. South Korea had a huge cluster, but mask wearing practice saved it from spiraling out of control.

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#134

Post by milanove »

shock wrote: post #88
fuckknows wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's a pretty safe prior to have that our immune system will work effectively against this virus post exposure. This isn't the first time a virus has crossed the species barrier in all of our evolutionary history and we've survived so far.

I don't know we can count on that at this stage: https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-c...

The article said the patient showed signs of recovery and then later on started showing signs of the virus again. I don't know if that means they conducted an exit test to confirm that she was negative for coronavirus after her first bout with it. Maybe it died down in her system, but wasn't completely gone when she was deemed healthy again and later on it flared up again for some reason.

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#135

Post by throwaway894345 »

Touche wrote: post #127
neuronic wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Looking at the people happily strolling around and gathering in public cafes as if nothing was going on, I severely doubt it. (large city in Germany btw)

Those Darwin award winners will be the first to get it.

They’ll be the first, but almost all of them will be fine. They’ll just pass it onto the elderly, cancer patients, etc who won’t be fine. No Darwinian justice here, I’m afraid.

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#136

Post by agumonkey »

smacktoward wrote: post #15
aqme28 wrote: post #9

I thought this interview was illuminating for post-lockdown life in China https://twitter.com/MikeIsaac/status/1238604080571772928?s=2... It shows just how far behind we are. TLDW: Temperature checks everywhere. Fever clinics optimized for quarantining the potentially infected. China is trying to actually contain the virus. The only way out for us unless we significantly ramp up testing and lockdown is to admit defea…

> The only way out for us unless we significantly ramp up testing and lockdown is to admit defeat and simply optimize for slowing down the onslaught. This has already happened. “Flatten the curve” takes it as written that most people will be exposed to the virus, and thus aims instead to just spread those exposures over a long enough period to avoid overwhelming the health care system.

a globalized MOOC on over-capacitated system DDoS

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#137

Post by kevin_thibedeau »

dhosek wrote: post #106
adventured wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there any information on how many of the ~377 Australian cases originated outside versus inside their borders? I can't find much on that figure. South Africa only has 62 cases and New Zealand only has 8 cases. Not much there yet.

I haven't seen any statistics, but it appears that Rita Wilson and her husband contracted it in Australia from what I've read. That was the more worrying thing to me about that news than the celebrity connection.

Two global travelers with frequent contact to other global travelers doesn't prove much.

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#138

Post by agumonkey »

fspeech wrote: post #89

The South Korean model: 1. Build up testing and contact tracing capabilities. 2. Massive mask making, everyone required to wear a mask in public. 3. Hospitals reconfigured to deal with covid patients. People can then go outside and mingle again.

it seems obv that mask wearing would have slowed the spread immensely

they also have large distribution of sanitizer so you can shrink the contact vector too..

I wish europe went this way

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#139

Post by lozenge »

simonh wrote: post #101
smacktoward wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The only way out for us unless we significantly ramp up testing and lockdown is to admit defeat and simply optimize for slowing down the onslaught. This has already happened. “Flatten the curve” takes it as written that most people will be exposed to the virus, and thus aims instead to just spread those exposures over a long enough period to avoid overwhelming the health care system.

The UK government is revising its plan. A new simulation estimates that if we allow enough transmission to achieve herd immunity, it would cost about 260,000 lives. That’s not acceptable and would massively overwhelm health services. So it looks like we’re going to go for a strict lockdown strategy, but the problem with that is without a vaccine there’s no way out. If you relax the lockdown, you just get another outb…

If anybody is interested - report 9 here https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-ana...

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#140

Post by azhawkes »

hfufigivknog wrote: post #108
ztjio wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not that simple. First of all, most people do not develop permanent immunity to the cold which is usually one of the first 4 known human transmissible corona viruses. So there is no reason to think we'll develop long term immunity to this one either. Second, our reaction has be abysmal which, similar to the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic, massively increases the chance of a second or even third wave of massive infect…

Corona viruses are not “the cold.” Rhinovirus causes the common cold and corona viruses cause 10% of cold cases. Just like other corona viruses, they make a recurring appearance. But this is not because they mutate in the way the flu does. No corona viruses mutate in the way that the flu does. If you have some evidence to prove me wrong then produce it. You definitely develop immunity to viruses that sicken you. For…

That's my inclination as well. Isolate and protect the high-risk people, and let the rest of us get herd immunity quickly. Especially the kids, who are apparently unaffected by this thing. That's the silver lining here.

On the other hand, if you prevent the kids and young healthy people from getting it, you pretty much guarantee a large vector for continuous outbreaks well into the future, which may end up killing far more people in the long run and at a much higher economic cost.

I'm not an epidemiologist, so if anyone here is, please share why this approach isn't getting more consideration.

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