Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

* There will be a major and long-lasting global recession, likely within the first 5 years of the decade, that leads to significant sociopolitical shifts in multiple countries

* Major weather events become (even more) common, CO2 levels continue to rise, climate change becomes accepted as "real" across the board very quickly by the middle of the decade, but rather than just being the gateway to more funding for research/innovation or global accords and working together, also gives rise to at least one right-wing eco-fascist type party, open talk of eugenics/depopulation, and/or a rise of a strongly authoritarian but much more eco-friendly Chinese government

* "Anti-technology" fringe movements gain as BigTech becomes increasingly villified and understood as some of the most powerful trans-nationcal corps in the world - not only sabotage+hacker movements, but also a revival of "back to the land" type commune/monastic/retreat/cult movements

* A major breakthrough is made with regards to Alzheimers/dementia

* Religiosity continues to decline across the world, however smallish cults become much more popular

* The culture wars abate somewhat, and some things have permanently changed (ie; genderfluidity and identifying as multiple genders during one lifetime will be seen as relatively common by anyone that becomes a teenager during this decade)

* Extreme poverty will continue to be eradicated and more people will have access to things like basic antibiotics and drinking water by the end of the decade, even with climate change disruption to landbases/watersheds

* Systems science methods become more mainstream - things like agent-based modeling, etc. Basic machine learning stuff is taught in high school.

This is a list of things I hope come to be this decade. 1) The death of ads on the internet. Looking at advertisements becomes much less socially acceptable, and ad blockers become the norm. 2) A properly open source mobile OS takes over. 3) The Linux desktop hits 20% market share. 4) IPv6 replaces IPv4, all but the biggest websites switch over completely. 5) On the back of IPv6, fully peer-to-peer secure messaging takes over. I can now send a full movie to my friends within a group chat, no servers needed. 6) Self-hosting software becomes easy and mainstream (something like yunohost, but not necessarily that implementation). No more command line knowledge needed.

Would it be interesting to have another submission where each top comment is just one idea? Then we can vote on those ideas and see which ideas are more likely to be true.

Very broadly:

* Enjoying movies and series on a flat screen will be replaced by experiences inside virtual reality devices.

More specifically:

* All actors will be turned into 3D models.

* The experience will be mostly passive.

* They can be enjoyed by multiple people at the same time, which replaces going to the cinema.

* Manufacturers will be the same, ie. Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo.

* Disney either launches their own "console" (ie. a standardized PC like current consoles) or enter a partnership with one of the three large manufacturers (Nintendo being the most likely candidate).

* There will be lots of reboots of existing franchises in VR.

My prediction is most of these predictions will not come true as stated, but things that have not been discovered or are not obvious will dominate change. Having seen 4 decades now since I started I have seen so many technologies and changes appear that no one even thought of at the start of each decade. It might be different this time because the internet is so prevalent today and it's much more difficult to make something under the radar.