Reading this made me a bit sad. So many people were optimistic, and many predicted exciting things... but few if any of that happened.
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Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)
131–140 of 462 posts
Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)
#132Fun read but humans are not very good at making predictions.
I beg to differ, humans are the best at making predictions. There is nothing better than a human.
Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)
#133Earlier quoted context omitted.
> - The next big thing will be something totally unknown and unpredictable now, as user-generated content and social networking were in 1999. However, when it does appear, various 'experts' on it will spring from nowhere to lecture us all about it. It will still be really cool, though. I think this basically describes AI.
I thought about virtual assistants and deep fakes
Regarding deep fakes, I don't think you're wrong, just early. I think we are just getting a glimpse of what is unfortunately possible as this decade closes out, they could introduce some real chaos as in this new decade.
Edit: spelling
Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)
#134IsaacL nailed it the best https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1027093 And surprisingly the WoW one is the most off :D
I think the Microsoft prediction is even more off...
My gut response to his thought of MS pivoting to consulting a la IBM was way off but after thinking about it for a minute you could kind of make a case that Azure is a form of "self-serve operationalized consulting", he was just off on it's impact and success by a factor of 50 or 100.
Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)
#135RMS owes someone money.
Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)
#136What’s amazing is how little changed. - Apple and Google are still the only two mobile operating systems that matter and they are still in relatively the same position. iOS still controls the high end where the money is and Android has the market share but the OEMs are not making any money. - Facebook is more profitable and popular. - Amazon is still the number one online retailer, the Kindle is still by far the most…
I think Microsoft was the biggest surprise. In 2010 MacBooks were starting to become very popular, and it looked like Microsoft’s monopoly on consumer computing was coming to an end. It was common to think Microsoft was on a long decline in 2010.
Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)
#137RMS owes someone money. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025795
I don't think it's the RMS
Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)
#138I ranked all of these, and gave the rate of correct predictions. I might have missed one or two, though.
----- Winners:
'icefox https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1026549
ChromeOS. Based on Linux kernel. Entirely different security system/deployment/upgrades, no legacy applications.
3/3 percentage correct: 100%
'jaquesm https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025696
Pretty sure all are correct, though can't find statistics for the first on hand.
5/5 percentage correct: 100%
'jacquesm https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025709
laarc, though laarc failed.
1/1 percentage correct: 100%
'adw https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025703
No explanation needed.
1/1 percentage correct: 100%
'slashed https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025702
1/1 percentage correct: 100%
No explanation necessary.
'jeromec https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1026044
Correct. Would have been incorrect if U.S. didn't come back into Iran to start another war. Details a bit blurry.
1/1 percentage correct: 100%
'jsz0 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1026022
No explanation needed.
2/2 percentage correct: 100%
'antirez https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025765
No explanation needed.
1/1 percentage correct: 100%
'rms https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025758
This happened, despite being far away.
1/1 percentage correct: 100%
'slvrspoon https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025943
Progress with cancer happened, wasn't a big thing. Growth of a Chinese middle class with a voice and independence didn't happen. Nuclear detonation didn't happen. Achievements in energy tech happened. Wi-fi data collection on everything happened, though not main change. Internet and software a snore; happened. Privacy did become an issue for the common user.
4/7 percentage correct: 57%
'IsaacL https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1027093
Facebook successful.
Facebook IPO happened in time allotted.
Twitter became profitable.
Microsoft didn't go anywhere.
Microsoft grew, claim of shrinking denied.
Desktop market shrunk.
Internet Explorer went away. Point denied.
Mobile phones have more or less replaced computers for most average users. Point denied.
Mobile phones did cause most of the big changes during this decade.
More successful startups.
Startups with Facebook/YouTube proportions didn't happen. Point denied.
Huge startups built on phones and web tech did happen.
Startup ecosystem has gotten worse. Point denied.
"Startup instead of college" has gotten more intense.
Languages slower than Ruby caught on. Was not because of Moore's Law but because developers have the attention span of small rodents. Point denied.
Moore's Law is dead.
Deal to limit warming did happen, though it was in six years, not five, and far less than what is claimed here. Point denied.
Traditional retail gave way to delivery; large shops weren't impacted as much as small, and the incentives were wrong. Point denied.
China made no attempt to become democratic.
Rule of law in China got stronger, though civil liberties did not increase. Point denied.
Internet crackdowns have continued and increased in China.
12/21 percentage correct: 57%
'iamwil https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025885
Eugenics dating service from Harvard students was announced just a few days ago.
1/2 percentage correct: 50%
'DaniFong https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1026260
Solar and wind are now cheaper than alternatives. Is not sold to customers "when they want it, how they want it."
1/2 percentage correct: 50%
'bioweek https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1026279
Ubiquitous free internet did happen, wasn't a meshnet.
1/2 percentage correct: 50%
'borism https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025861
Web did not cease to be the delivery platform of choice for applications, it's gotten worse. Point denied.
Internet has become more restricted.
1/2 percentage correct: 50%
'zitterbewegung https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025906
PMCs have gotten more prevalent. Have not gotten more popular.
1/2 percentage correct: 50%
'brfox https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025855
Gene-therapy did become slightly more commonplace. Genome sequencing for chronic conditions is now commonplace (wouldn't have counted this if 'brfox didn't elaborate on the prediction in same thread).
2/5 percentage correct: 40%
'tommorris https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025771
GNU/Linux on the desktop didn't really happen, but Linux on the desktop did (ChromeOS).
Widespread adoption of LISP by developers sort of happened (Clojure), despite much adoption, still limited reach.
Cheaper hardware happened, and is the only thing I'm giving a full point for.
The rest didn't really happen.
1/6 percentage correct: 16.7%
----- Losers:
'varjag https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025740
Didn't happen.
0/1 percentage correct: 0%
'10ren https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1026574
Nothing right, though first two slightly mirror events that happened ("you inside" = VR; mobile devices have specialized processors like "organs in the body," though multi-core is far from dead).
0/4 percentage correct: 0%
'erikstarck https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1026088
Nothing accurate barring possibly the Google example, though not even it is really right.
0/3 percentage correct: 0%
'mojuba https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025706
Entirely wrong, unfortunately.
0/a-bunch percentage correct: 0%
'lallysingh https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025783
No substantial change in political bases, slight left-swing for demographic mentioned.
0/1 percentage correct: 0%
'artagon https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025790
Entirely wrong.
0/6 percentage correct: 0%
'andrewcooke https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025727
None of this was correct, though AMD did make steps in that direction, and so did IBM/Sony.
0/2 percentage correct: 0%
'samuel https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025853
It hasn't yet.
0/1 percentage correct: 0%
----- Honorable mentions:
'paraschopra https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025736
Half-point given because tablets rose to prominence and serve as partial e-Book readers, though they also killed dedicated ones.
.5/1 percentage correct: N/A
'Scott_MacGregor https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1026255
1. His company failed.
2. Didn't happen.
3. Half-point given; free for everyone, usually privately-funded.
4. It's gotten worse.
5. No explanation necessary.
6. Didn't happen.
7. It's gotten worse.
.5/7 percentage correct: N/A
'zacharypinter https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025867
All claims basically correct, though flawed. Not taking into final % calculation or ranking for that reason.
4/5 percentage correct: N/A
'motters https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025738
Both predictions correct with large picture, both wrong on most details. Half-point awarded for each.
1/2 percentage correct: N/A
'motters https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025817
Problems with pensions happened, were not as bad as claimed.
.5/1 percentage correct: N/A
Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)
#139Earlier quoted context omitted.
I disagree, I think anyone the put in charge would have done well. Satya came in during one of the biggest bull runs in history and just surfed the wave. Even Ballmer would have had a hard time to stop that.
Surface, Azure, Minecraft, Github, VSCode and the whole renewed developer focus... those seem like pretty strong shifts and not just 'surfing the wave'.
Not just that, but their core business is strong. Even with the rise of Apple and Google OSes, Windows and Office is still a humongous market.
Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)
#140> the end of 32 bit computing.
By itself hardly a bold prediction, but the top reply makes a caveat about mobile devices, which gets some nods about mobile taking much longer to transition to 64-bit.
Few might have imagined Apple would ship its first 64-bit phone only three years later, and a version of iOS before the decade was over that ended support for 32-bit phones!