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Ask HN: What can be done to prevent a climate catastrophe?

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Re: Ask HN: What can be done to prevent a climate catastrophe?

#131
post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How is that relevant? Areas where more than a billion people live today will become uninhabitable to humans if they warm up by 14 degrees. Actually, much sooner than that.

But why? Why can't we adapt to those environments using technology? This is what the OP comment is saying.

One immediate reason is our physiological limit (see wet bulb temperature), which is achieved at air temperatures as low as 45 degrees C depending on humidity.

Another is sea level rise. For +14C that's on the order of +30 meters as currently predicted.

And of course such drastic changes don't come alone. Weather patterns will change, food production will be threatened, governments will be destabilized, wars will happen.

We can tech our way out of some of this but who's to say that we will be given enough time and resources. The universe doesn't owe us anything.

Re: Ask HN: What can be done to prevent a climate catastrophe?

#132
We are past the point where we we can fix this with discussions & civil discourse. Not to say that we shouldn't try. But a leaflet campaigns and discussions aren't going to reduce emissions. The best solution would be not to have kids (too late for me) and adopt instead if you must, not to own a car, try to own as little as you can (it will make you happier too). Plant stuff, pick up gardening, go offline and go outside to reconnect with where you come from. Anything that contains batteries is probably toxic. Most shit we don't need we just are brainwashed into thinking we do.

An interesting read is Technological Slavery The Collected Writings Of Theodore J. Kaczynski, A.k.a. ' The Unabomber' which has been mentioned in Bill Joy's famous post "Why the Future doesn't Need Us" and my guess is that despite his infamy he might be heralded as some kind of "hero" in 50-100 years time.

Humans and society is in deeper in trouble than we think and stand "no chance of being saved". If you are of sound mental state, I suggest Thomas Ligotti's "The Conspiracy against the Human Race"

https://www.wired.com/2000/04/joy-2/

https://archive.org/details/TechnologicalSlaveryTheCollected...

https://www.amazon.com/Conspiracy-against-Human-Race-Contriv...

Re: Ask HN: What can be done to prevent a climate catastrophe?

#133
post #11

So I'm honestly not as concerned about this as I once was. Don't get me wrong: the climate is going to change, arguably we're in a mass extinction event already and people aren't going to suddenly start acting in the collective long term welfare of humanity. One of the things I like about futurism is the levelheaded optimism and pragmatism you tend to get. And I'll call out Isaac Arthur as a well-known example of thi…

Ah, techno utopianism. It ignores reality in many ways, here are two.

First, if we have clean energy, are we going to shut down fossil fuel plants that have already been built? If not, then fossil fuel will just become cheaper as demand drops, making burning fossil fuels attractive again. Countries currently plan to reduce their emissions, but none are planning to reduce their fossil fuel exports. They just hope it will show up on another country's emissions balance sheet.

Even if we did develop super cheap clean energy, that would only reduce emissions in the future. Past emissions hang around for centuries and contribute to warm the planet (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/jan/16/greenhou...). We would need to pay huge amounts to sequester that CO2 and I don't see anybody volunteering to foot that bill.

This paper summarises both issues well: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal...

Both are just aspects of the fundamental issue - although technological solutions perhaps could be developed, there is no political or economic will to do so, and no indication that will change.

Re: Ask HN: What can be done to prevent a climate catastrophe?

#134

I wrote a trilogy of long posts on this topic very recently so I'll just link to that. https://unop.uk/how-to-help-with-a-big-global-problem-as-a-t... In summary, it's not somebody else's problem. It's our problem and we need to take responsibility and fix it. We already have all the core technology required to solve this and we just need to make it happen. Everyone can help, particularly the talented crowd on here.

> Everyone can help, particularly the talented crowd on here.

I've been thinking about that for a while, is it possible to have a positive impact on the environment writing software?

Re: Ask HN: What can be done to prevent a climate catastrophe?

#135
post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How is that relevant? Areas where more than a billion people live today will become uninhabitable to humans if they warm up by 14 degrees. Actually, much sooner than that.

But why? Why can't we adapt to those environments using technology? This is what the OP comment is saying.

Most of the people who live in places that will become uninhabitable, can either not or can barely afford clear water and food. They will not be able to afford hi tech solutions. Since Humanity does not help them now, it is not reasonable to assume that we will help them in the future.

Re: Ask HN: What can be done to prevent a climate catastrophe?

#136
> Maybe corporations are the ones who can be pressured to take the lead.

Yep. We need to somehow put pressure on every polluting institution (corporations, militaries, and so on) to either radically change or stop existing. Individual action won't work.

Here are some companies to start with: https://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2017/jul/10...

Re: Ask HN: What can be done to prevent a climate catastrophe?

#137
On the topic of geo engineering, I want to share a quote [0] from the physicist Joshua Bach:

"As long as we are still burning fossil fuels to generate energy, the idea of capturing the CO2 from the atmosphere is a joke. It would require more than all the energy we have generated since the beginning of the industrial age. Or millions of years of growing non-rotting trees."

[0] https://twitter.com/Plinz/status/1041881894995013632

Re: Ask HN: What can be done to prevent a climate catastrophe?

#138
post #11

So I'm honestly not as concerned about this as I once was. Don't get me wrong: the climate is going to change, arguably we're in a mass extinction event already and people aren't going to suddenly start acting in the collective long term welfare of humanity. One of the things I like about futurism is the levelheaded optimism and pragmatism you tend to get. And I'll call out Isaac Arthur as a well-known example of thi…

> Think we're dumping too much CO2 into the atmosphere? We no doubt are but that problem basically goes away immediately if we ever get economic fusion power.

That's an enormous "if". Fusion research has been underfunded for decades, we don't even know if we can sustain it, and for a reason I don't get, many ecologists are anti-nuclear. Plus fusion won't solve everything. You won't put a sun core into your car nor your plane, not in the next centuries.

> Even if we don't, the plummetting cost of wind and solar may solve that anyway (by "solve" I mean that as soon as non-fossil fuel power production is cheaper than fossil fuels it becomes economic to remove CO2 from the atmosphere and turn into hydrocarbons).

Oh, you mean the unreliable power sources that sometimes provide electricity, sometimes don't?

> The Earth has also been a lot warmer than it is now

Well yes but 5°C is also the difference between an ice age and a hot age. We're currently in a hot age and the 4°C increase we're heading to are not very engaging. (Remainder, during ice age North America down to NY and Northern Europe down to Paris were covered by enormous glaciers. So what will the climate be in 4°C?). https://xkcd.com/1379/

Also in human history the Earth has never been this hot.

> Too expensive to get to space? Eventually the cost of this will go down to dollars per kilogram.

Ha. To escape Earth gravity you still need to spend 6.2*10^7 J/kg. That's gonna be a long time before we get to 1$/kg given that rocket propulsion is extremely costly (and as far as we know can't rely on atomic energy either). We're still at ~25 000 $/kg. And anyway recent studies show that the human body is unlikely to bear a trip to Mars, let alone the health issues caused by weightless environment.

Edit, source: http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/09/26/1807522115. Basically the study suggests heavy ion irradiation is dangerous for the digestive system. The only thing is I'm not sure about the number of mice they used.

> We also seem to have a pretty poor history of predictions when it comes to climate change too.

I mean it's not as if oil companies conducted their own research and reached the very same conclusion in 1977. Oh wait. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/exxon-knew-about-...

I'm sorry but you're just burying your head in the sand, making the problem someone else's.

Re: Ask HN: What can be done to prevent a climate catastrophe?

#139
Indirect action idea (I wonder about it).

Gather with other persons to invest a few shares in the major groups responsible for CO2 emissions.

Not to have weight per se, but to be invited in shareholders assembly. And to be regularly loud about the topic of the group's responsibility. It's enough for 4, 5 distinct individuals to bring up related questions in the same assembly so that it bothers other investors.

Bothering from within is a start.

Re: Ask HN: What can be done to prevent a climate catastrophe?

#140
post #11

So I'm honestly not as concerned about this as I once was. Don't get me wrong: the climate is going to change, arguably we're in a mass extinction event already and people aren't going to suddenly start acting in the collective long term welfare of humanity. One of the things I like about futurism is the levelheaded optimism and pragmatism you tend to get. And I'll call out Isaac Arthur as a well-known example of thi…

> Think we're dumping too much CO2 into the atmosphere? We no doubt are but that problem basically goes away immediately if we ever get economic fusion power. That's an enormous "if". Fusion research has been underfunded for decades, we don't even know if we can sustain it, and for a reason I don't get, many ecologists are anti-nuclear. Plus fusion won't solve everything. You won't put a sun core into your car nor yo…

>> And anyway recent studies show that the human body is unlikely to bear a trip to Mars, let alone the health issues caused by weightless environment.

citations please..

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