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Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?

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121–130 of 219 posts

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?

#121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't get this take. My knowledge and engineering has only gone up over time. I read significantly more and higher quality technical information and need to debug problems significantly harder. I think AI will in general make everyone a lot smarter. Maybe the people who use AI as a companion will melt? I'm sure there's some kind of repetitive addiction loop that could melt your brain just like anythibg else though.

I understand it. For example, with AI you don't need to remember stuff. Like there is a command in MacOS (two actually) to flush the DNS cache. I used to memorize it because I needed it like twice a week. These days, I can't remember it. I just tell Copilot to flush the cache for me. It knows what to do. And it's like that for many things. Complicated Git commands that I rarely need. I used to remember them at least…

Hm, perhaps a way to export all your chats from any AI provider you use + sending it back to an LLM to just sum up all the commands that you use in a text file that you can reference?

Like I am starting to use etherpad a lot recently and although I have proton docs and similar, I just love etherpad for creating quick pads for information

Or to be honest, I search it on the internet and ddg's AI feature does give me a short answer (mostly to the point) but I think that there are definitely ways to get our own knowledge base if any outage happens basically.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?

#122
post #11
post #6

Previous Years: - 2025: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42490343 - 2024: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38777115 - 2023: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34125628 - 2022: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29746236 - 2021: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25594068 - 2020: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21802596 - 2019: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18753859 - 2018: https://news.ycomb…

Read the 2025 prediction thread for some perspective. (Hope you didn't stake your retirement on bitcoin hitting $200,000!)

>>> There are even more restrictions aimed at stopping kids using social media. Restrictions on phone use in schools, who can sign up for social media, etc..

Additionally, that it'll eventually prove to be a wild success, with significant benefit to kids.

On the darker side, the same technologies and restrictions will be applied in various ways to adults (similar to the porn verification laws), which will have significantly more negative effects.

(source: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42490517)

There are some correct predictions it seems, a lot of this is happening around the world so it would be interesting to see how this pans out in 2026, thoughts?

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?

#123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I understand it. For example, with AI you don't need to remember stuff. Like there is a command in MacOS (two actually) to flush the DNS cache. I used to memorize it because I needed it like twice a week. These days, I can't remember it. I just tell Copilot to flush the cache for me. It knows what to do. And it's like that for many things. Complicated Git commands that I rarely need. I used to remember them at least…

Is that really a bad thing? It's like saying Google Maps makes you lazier, because you don't have to learn navigation. And, heck, why stop there: cars are just insanely lazy! You lose all the exercise benefits of walking.

Yes? It’s all true. It can be good in one axis and bad in another axis.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?

#124
post #107
post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You've left out an absolutely massive swath between "low level systems" and "crud app". There a lot more to the industry then just those two things. And as productivity rises, the complexity and ambition of the projects tackeled will continue to rise. The way we do the work might change, but things aren't going to look as different as people think.

Yeah, I think that's a fair point. I mean, we have SRE, which is a whole set of skillsets in itself and it does involve around maintaining "CRUD-apps"; Heck there is the cybersec industry as well, ensuring CRUD-apps aren't exploited. My para was certainly a bit more 2D, I was speaking more from what I might benefit learning now, to get a job, say end of 2026. I have observed many roles like SRE etc, require certain e…

> It's this paradox where in order to become a senior engineer, you must get hired as a junior engineer, to learn and observe how production software works, but that is pretty hard these days.

Yes that's true but I would argue this isn't because of AI itself. Sure it might have accelerated it but I have heard that in the 2020's a lot of people got a lot of jobs in the industry and then its that the market did feel saturated and in a sense, a lot of jobs feel this way in the economy where if someone has it, they continue having it but its becoming harder for new people to enter, there are financials reasons for this too mostly if i remember, interests rates are one of the core reasons

That being said, Even though I have used LLM's a lot, I do not agree with your opinion and I am even younger than you most likely (17)

A lot of people my age/people just going into college would use AI a lot to cheat but I will genuinely try to take it slow to learn things. I will try to use it as a learning tool and not as a crutch. Currently I am still in high school and I get ideas which I wish to implement but dont have the time because of exams so I test them out with LLM's but even I find the whole process frustrating at times and its just, maybe its me but there is a good ceiling that I can process. Some basic crud processes can definitely be in that but if your project is novel, even basic things can be hard

I will give you an example, I recently tried creating an api for proton docs which worked by having browser instances. I had two basic scripts that worked on one platform and converted them to puppeteer using LLM and after it worked, I then asked it to simply create a very basic crud api on top of it

Nope, I tried it 5-6 times on the best models on the market but they couldn't actively take two files which had read/write and have it work, either there was an issue in read or an issue in write

I am fine with the project as it is right now and I am fine with the templates it has given me and I am going to build it now on top of it

I had many ideas which could be considered basic crud apps like having a kanban app/github issues like ui on top of bitwarden after I saw a post here by simon saying how he uses github issues and that went semi-viral on hackernews

Another issue is that I think just as how sure writers and similar can generate AI generated, I feel like there would be more trust on the non AI generated code.

Personally I will try my best to create prototypes with AI and if I like them, I will see what it does and then rewrite them myself as an learning experience and also because people say spec driven development etc. but I just want to code things by hand at this point or convert the LLM generated prototypes of idea to something that I later code and understand by hand tbh (most likely when I get into college)

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?

#125
post #98

This is less of a prediction, more of how I see this industry progressing. I really feel "web dev" is going to get highly commoditized by GenAI, by web dev I mean 99% of building CRUD-adjacent apps, we are already seeing it now with tools like Claude Code etc, this pipeline is just going to get more refined, with tigther testing feedback loops, PR-workflows and a CI/CD deployment pipeline which the GenAI will control…

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Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?

#126
post #44
post #22

- EVs will be in the Early Majority group, and 2/3 of them will be Chinese. At least 1 in 4 of new cars purchased will be EVs. - AI will innovate towards visuals, personality, and tool use. AI tool use will start to innovate past just reading docs, maybe into more things like gaming and robotics. - Some AI products (not necessarily LLMs) will start competing on latency. Notably on voice/calls, but also things like dr…

I think EVs will head in the complete opposite direction in that sales will slow down and they will continue to be a minority. Ford just killed off the F150 lightning and EVs (but also new cars) are still expensive purchases in a time with a lot of economic uncertainty. While Chinese companies are making affordable options all the markets seem to love putting tariffs on them in order to keep their homegrown automaker…

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Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?

#127
post #84

Physical AI will make subversive discoveries that exceed everyone's expectations - space-time integrated computing, rather than the current three-dimensional spatial computing plus discrete time steps

We can't even make a robot that folds clothes yet ..

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Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?

#129
There would be very strong emphasis on financial superapps, I saw coffeezilla's recent video about how coinbase is expanding to stocks and other stuff too but they are also expanding to prediction markets themselves which are also eating away at gambling/basically are gambling apps itself

Coffeezilla (and me too right now) basically shout that its like a health app tried to give you junk food off the back alley basically

But I feel like these trends will continue to grow, I was partially interested in stablecoin markets and it seems that apps like paypal,venmo,cash app etc. would essentially just stand back as stablecoin and so there are chances that these financial superapps will do these too in the near future

There would be more emphasis on removing VPN's in countries. I feel like UK (and in extent other countries too) will have some influence on gatekeeping their populations from websites who dont comply to their arbitrary rules and VPN's being the last hope for many, I feel like a real crackdown on it is gonna come in 2026

I feel like centralization and extremism might continue slipping up in 2026 too perhaps. To me I just feel like we see things and this illusion that there are many players in any marketplace but it does feel like they are centralizing (some major tech apps, some major finance apps etc. which will influence a lot of average person's opinion) and we just saw something similar happen to dram prices which i also think wont really reduce even in 2026

I am seeing people fed up with centralization and big tech and more interested in homemade-alike solutions/created by normal people. Projects like clippy and others have made more people aware of such things and I think it will continue in 2026 when more people see this real "AI tax" of increasing prices of hardware

Centralized finance and decentralized finance (although I dont appreciate crypto) feel to me would kinda converge on stablecoins and then merge/already are merging and In my opinion the company with more ties to centralized finance could win. Tech and finance seem to me would have more coupling on a rate similar to 2025.

The AI bubble has chances of popping in 2026 but I am not sure about it but that being said, its a matter of when, not if in my opinion. But if AI bubble does pop, I feel like finance and tech would decouple most likely because it seems to me that if an offer as lucrative as "AGI" for the financial investors failed in their eyes, they would stray away from real tech businesses who make real life problems much easier but wont have the lure/lucrativeness if the bubble pops up

Else, we are gonna see the same thing where people will slap AI over anything to get funding. I do feel like if AI bubble pops then the companies who picked AI hype when there was no need might be shamed for it but It never really happened in the crypto space because those companies went straight to AI after crypto so I think we would need some time in between after AI bursting and another hype to give people some time to think what really happened and the scale of it if it does bursts.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?

#130

There will be a cliff in the number of people in this industry. There will be a bunch of senior people floating around the job market and no more junior talent. There will be fewer new grads and the pipelines will dry up. If they go down the route of automating as much as possible, it'll destroy the social pipelines that allow companies to reproduce themselves. I don't think that'll actually happen, but it'll be inte…

What are your opinions on accepting junior talent say, 4 years from now?

Would there be any changes because I feel like a lot of junior talent isnt picked because of AI but I feel like given a long enough timescope, AI bubble will burst and so taking that into account, what would you say about the job market?

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