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Ask HN: Aren't you afraid of a possible world conflict?

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Re: Ask HN: Aren't you afraid of a possible world conflict?

#121

Post by hkpack »

meiraleal wrote: post #116
hkpack wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not scared but acknowledge that the world in which there were long periods of peace and short wars is over. There will be long wars and short peace from now on for undefined time. Whether it will be wars on the periphery or a global war depends on which stage western democracies will wake up and collectively realise the reality of the situation.

is it really true tho? with the ceasefire in Lebanon and a potential desengagement in Ukraine, we would have no multi states active wars for the first since decades?

Israel-Hamas is nowhere close to the end, and ceasefire is probably only because it is too difficult for Israel to fight on two fronts. It is existential conflict which was thought to be short but is still ongoing without end in sight.

Both Hamas and Hezbollah are proxies of Iran - Russia - China alliance. They are going nowhere.

Disengagement in Ukraine is only possible if Russia decides that it needs time to regroup and heal. It is an existential conflict with no end in sight. If Ukraine falls, conflict will move on to the rest of eastern Europe after a short while, as Ukraine should have only been a first step of the plan for Russia to control Europe.

Re: Ask HN: Aren't you afraid of a possible world conflict?

#122

Post by hkpack »

mnky9800n wrote: post #119
hkpack wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the highest level it is the war for the world order between democracies and autocracies. On the level below it is a war for the spheres of influence between China and US. Next, it is Russian war for the control of the Europe and middle east. Below it is the wars by Iranian/Russian/Chinese proxies to help with the goals mentioned above. In all ongoing conflicts the parties are aligned with the China on top of the c…

that all sounds like a nice theory but i feel like it absolves the actors of their actions and doesn’t actually add any details to what i was saying like i asked. it offers very little explanatory or predictive power so im not really sure what the point of the theory is except to assume a structure that could also be more simply explained by gordon gekko, “greed is good.”

I don't know why you say that it doesn't have predictive power, as it absolutely does.

For example, I predict that as long as western democracies will continue to depend on autocracies (there is no sign for that to stop), the existing wars will continue to expand and conflicts multiply.

Re: Ask HN: Aren't you afraid of a possible world conflict?

#123

Post by meiraleal »

hkpack wrote: post #121
meiraleal wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

is it really true tho? with the ceasefire in Lebanon and a potential desengagement in Ukraine, we would have no multi states active wars for the first since decades?

Israel-Hamas is nowhere close to the end, and ceasefire is probably only because it is too difficult for Israel to fight on two fronts. It is existential conflict which was thought to be short but is still ongoing without end in sight. Both Hamas and Hezbollah are proxies of Iran - Russia - China alliance. They are going nowhere. Disengagement in Ukraine is only possible if Russia decides that it needs time to regrou…

Israel-Hamas is a civil war as Palestine is not a state. The rest is just your opinion.

Re: Ask HN: Aren't you afraid of a possible world conflict?

#124

Post by meiraleal »

aguaviva wrote: post #96
leviliebvin wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right. The English, the French, the Germans, the Dutch, the Swedish, the Spanish, the Portuguese, the Romans, the Greeks, the Austrians, the Belgians, ..., the Cossacks ... none of those ever did anything to show any kind of "cruel mentality". Right. This kind of completely unhinged dehumanizing nonsense is bordering hate speech.

The English, the French, the Germans, the Dutch, the Swedish, the Spanish, the Portuguese, the Romans, the Greeks, the Austrians, the Belgians, ..., All gave up their psychotic empire-building games (or at least sublimated into forms not involving large-scale military conflict) long ago. Russia's current regime, for some reason, has not.

> All gave up their psychotic empire-building games (or at least sublimated into forms not involving large-scale military conflict) long ago.

They did not. They were subjugated by the current empire, the US and are all just fiefdoms nowadays, some of them are even occupied by military forces, called bases.

Russia isn't in that list.

Re: Ask HN: Aren't you afraid of a possible world conflict?

#125

Post by meiraleal »

leviliebvin wrote: post #41
peepeepoopoo89 wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

NATO as it exists today is a welfare program where US taxpayers subsidize the defense budgets of European countries so they can afford lavish social benefits programs for their citizens while the US drowns in both personal and federal debt. You were never going to come help us, and the exploitative relationship between our countries is now over. Good luck.

This is a fascinating perspective. Because a lot of people would rather say that NATO is a US-led project intended to protect US hegemony.

You are both right, that's why this "partnership" stands.

Re: Ask HN: Aren't you afraid of a possible world conflict?

#126

Post by aguaviva »

meiraleal wrote: post #124
aguaviva wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The English, the French, the Germans, the Dutch, the Swedish, the Spanish, the Portuguese, the Romans, the Greeks, the Austrians, the Belgians, ..., All gave up their psychotic empire-building games (or at least sublimated into forms not involving large-scale military conflict) long ago. Russia's current regime, for some reason, has not.

> All gave up their psychotic empire-building games (or at least sublimated into forms not involving large-scale military conflict) long ago. They did not. They were subjugated by the current empire, the US and are all just fiefdoms nowadays, some of them are even occupied by military forces, called bases. Russia isn't in that list.

They're all just fiefdoms nowadays

Those countries are not "fiefdoms", by any stretch or interpretation.

Nor are they occupied, in any meaningful sense.

That's just delusional.

Re: Ask HN: Aren't you afraid of a possible world conflict?

#127

Post by 082349872349872 »

gsf_emergency wrote: post #112
082349872349872 wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, avoiding blowing ourselves up (or summering ourselves out?) means we had much bigger things to be afraid of than capital-t Terrorism. For what it's worth, I believe that instead of starting a war and an occupation, when the Taliban said they were ready to give ObL up on condition the US provide some evidence he was behind WTC, they could've simply been taken up on their offer. (Similar goes for "WMD")

Let's just (pace namer of the kwisatz haderech) call the true Shaitan by its name: meretrocracy :) [Fwiw I have not Figured out the right orthography (including case, number of R's etc)]

As in "the divided god"? not shoggoth but sandworm?

Re: Ask HN: Aren't you afraid of a possible world conflict?

#128

Post by Eddy_Viscosity2 »

> why aren't we so scared anymore?

Why bother being afraid if you can't do anything about? I have enough more immediate stressors to consume all my worry bandwidth that there's not enough left over for such things. Also, the inherent self preservation of people is always a factor. I mean, I have very deep concerns about the damage the second Trump administration will reek on US (and the rest of the world for that matter), but I am not afraid he'll press the red button. He'd have as much to lose as the rest of us. Same goes for Putin and Xi.

Re: Ask HN: Aren't you afraid of a possible world conflict?

#129

Post by gsf_emergency »

082349872349872 wrote: post #127
gsf_emergency wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let's just (pace namer of the kwisatz haderech) call the true Shaitan by its name: meretrocracy :) [Fwiw I have not Figured out the right orthography (including case, number of R's etc)]

As in "the divided god"? not shoggoth but sandworm?

Look what the deity brought in

https://youtu.be/oSCwy34u3XY

("Shortening of the Way" was an epithet for the God-Emperor's father, implying the the Golden Path itself has zero extension?)

Re: Ask HN: Aren't you afraid of a possible world conflict?

#130

Post by 082349872349872 »

gsf_emergency wrote: post #129
082349872349872 wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As in "the divided god"? not shoggoth but sandworm?

Look what the deity brought in https://youtu.be/oSCwy34u3XY ("Shortening of the Way" was an epithet for the God-Emperor's father, implying the the Golden Path itself has zero extension?)

Until I looked up the original and discovered that "recaps" was meant to be taken literally, I was ready to be impressed*, as I'm a fan of those trailers that tell different stories, eg: death star as insurance fraud, or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ekXxi9IKZSA (an interpretation so strong, it even continues to work for the sequel)

which implication specifically? (for me zero extension is that set about which all predicates, even normally contradictory ones, are true)

in space-time anyway the GP appears to have had quite a bit of geometric extension, even in eigentime.

Lagniappe: Joseph as sabra? https://64.media.tumblr.com/6d601f74ae9201df318403b8c7e25b32...

compare https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Last_Temptation_of_Christ_... ?

* but maybe I'm insufficiently suspending disbelief, as in my world, female grad students in archaeology wind up more often in places like Ürümqi, not in places like "Wilson"?

I guess the question is how to remain content with the ordinary yet still seek out the extraordinary? Look at the stars but keep your feet on the ground? (观星步土?)

> A man's retch should exceed his grasp / Or what's a heaving for? —not RB

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