>low level work in those fields doesn't particularly teach or reward that mindset either so a great deal of personal discipline is helpful. Even then it just takes one mistake and it doesn't even have to be your mistake either.
This is a good point, but everything in life carries risk. You could make the same argument about cars, but people still drive every day (and some for a living!) Also, this is labor that has to be performed for society to function. The way you're talking about it makes it seem like an absurd proposition.
You can mitigate risk by choosing a safer and less physical trade (plumbing vs. tree service) and by being aware of the other dangers (like avoiding hard drugs.)
If he's a hard worker, sober, and attentive to detail it is likely he would be promoted quickly anyways.
>The second is that running a business is a different skillset from being a plumber or whatever...
The is true for every kind of proprietorship. It's just as true when a lawyer starts a law firm. Starting a business does mean assuming some amount of risk, but a proprietorship generally doesn't require any startup capital. The only adjacent business I can think of is property development, but those companies raise financing for their projects they don't just pay for them out of pocket.
It's also worth pointing out that even without starting your own business the wages that come when you are at the experienced level of a trade are livable and roughly commiserate with a lot of office jobs (obviously not talking about software engineering here.)
Regarding your comments about the military, there are many jobs in the different branches of the U.S. armed forces that would never see combat or even deployment to a combat zone. Unless you're saying that serving in any capacity puts you at that level of culpability (this is not something I care to debate about, it's too tangential.)
You would receive decent pay, a free college education, many other government related benefits, a path to retire by 40 and you get to choose from a wide variety of jobs to do (including many IT/Computer related) if you do well on the ASVAB. Like you pointed out, joining the military can be very risky, but those risks can be mitigated just like with trades. Someone who joins as an infantry soldier is much more likely to die than the person who joins the Navy to cook on their ships.
It's like you're looking for something perfect with no potential downsides to contend with, but I don't think that exists. The fact that the kid posted on here asking for advice shows he's clearly thinking about his future.
Personally, I wouldn't go for programming if I was his age at this point. Not because I think the job will be replaced by AI, but because the field is such a pain now. Entering it will be hell, even if you get a degree you're going to have to grind LC and you will face completely disparate hiring standards at every company you ever work for. Not to mention the multitude of bootcamp people. All to work in a field that has basically devolved into dealing with ever more complex abstractions on top of other abstractions. I'm sure AI will enter the stack at some point and it will truly be a black box. Programming these days just isn't very much fun anymore IMO.