Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Ask HN: What tech companies/industries will do well in a recession?

news.ycombinator.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

121–130 of 184 posts

Re: Ask HN: What tech companies/industries will do well in a recession?

#121

Post by giantg2 »

screye wrote: post #113

Speaking of a recession, I hope the recession isn't another massive redistribution of wealth into the hands of an older generation. Housing has continued shooting up, as those in the 30s find themselves with fewer assets to buy it with. The low interest rates amortize the costs allowing affordability, but the older generation still gets a massive payout. Then when the economy start recovering back up, the older gener…

"Speaking of a recession, I hope the recession isn't another massive redistribution of wealth into the hands of an older generation."

It will be. They're the demographic that has the most in their 401ks and the most capital/assets in general.

Re: Ask HN: What tech companies/industries will do well in a recession?

#122

Post by yobbo »

screye wrote: post #113

Speaking of a recession, I hope the recession isn't another massive redistribution of wealth into the hands of an older generation. Housing has continued shooting up, as those in the 30s find themselves with fewer assets to buy it with. The low interest rates amortize the costs allowing affordability, but the older generation still gets a massive payout. Then when the economy start recovering back up, the older gener…

> The low interest rates amortize the costs allowing affordability

Negative real interest rates devalues income from work and up-values ownership of assets. Inflation is not in the interest of workers.

> housing prices and interest rates will back down to normal sometime soon.

Mortgage rates needs to rise until the real interest rate is positive - ie interest rate is greater or equal than housing appreciation.

Re: Ask HN: What tech companies/industries will do well in a recession?

#123

Post by nebula8804 »

bluefirebrand wrote: post #90
Robotbeat wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Torrenting and piracy will do well in part because streaming on Netflix now sucks compared to what it was 10 years ago. Whether Tesla does well depends on partly why the recession occurs. Persistent high energy costs can cause recessions, but high gasoline costs benefit Tesla.

If Tesla wasn't a luxury car brand, maybe. Most people will go for cheaper electric cars, which aren't plentiful but do exist.

The three cars OEMs are capable of producing have already been accounted for.

Re: Ask HN: What tech companies/industries will do well in a recession?

#124

Post by neverartful »

stickfigure wrote: post #73
neverartful wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would think the important distinction would be luxury products that cater to the extremely wealthy (as opposed to luxury products bought by people that can barely afford it).

What kind of luxury products cater to only (or even primarily) the extremely wealthy? Superyachts, airplanes, maybe some exclusive villas/hotels, what else? Even supercars are bought by the merely "very" wealthy, who may be affected.

I don't entirely know because I'm very far from being in that demographic. Despite that, I'm sure that there are some super expensive luxury home furnishings.

Re: Ask HN: What tech companies/industries will do well in a recession?

#125

Post by [deleted] »

screye wrote: post #113

Speaking of a recession, I hope the recession isn't another massive redistribution of wealth into the hands of an older generation. Housing has continued shooting up, as those in the 30s find themselves with fewer assets to buy it with. The low interest rates amortize the costs allowing affordability, but the older generation still gets a massive payout. Then when the economy start recovering back up, the older gener…

[deleted]

Re: Ask HN: What tech companies/industries will do well in a recession?

#126

Post by whiplash451 »

laverix wrote: post #99
Melatonic wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would disagree - when average Joe loses his job due to a recession they are going to need some form of entertainment to fill their now wide-open schedule. People here might find torrenting and piracy pretty trivial but the average Joe is going to find it a much bigger hurdle than simply logging into Netflix and pressing go.

But how does average Joe pay for the account, if the prices for groceries, electricity, heating and transportation explode? If things go really south, average joe will be happy if he can afford food and heat his rented flat at least a little bit in winter.

Average Joe will use the cheaper, ad-based plan that Netflix is working on.

Re: Ask HN: What tech companies/industries will do well in a recession?

#127

Post by whiplash451 »

Bjorkbat wrote: post #111
tubalcain wrote: post #80

I suppose we could also frame the question as which tech companies and industries will NOT do well during the recession. I think that streaming services will not do well. People will return to torrenting and piracy. Same with crypto trading platforms. Basically any place where Joe Average can't afford to spend more than he has on hand. Tesla will see a big drop too, as people will cash out to buy their groceries. As…

AI/ML is a bit of a wildcard for me. On the one hand, I’m certain many companies will be eager cut costs through automation. On the other, investors will likely grow cold if the results just can’t live up to the hype fast enough.

And the hype won’t deliver fast enough. What has not been automated today will not be automated (robustly) in two years time.

Re: Ask HN: What tech companies/industries will do well in a recession?

#128

Post by konfusinomicon »

fintech SaaS companies. the banks have all the money, so those companies who provide services to them should thrive. regardless of the economy, people need bank accounts, credit cards, mortgages, etc. a recession just makes competition more fierce, and players in the vertical require technology to stay competitive

Re: Ask HN: What tech companies/industries will do well in a recession?

#130

Post by whiplash451 »

laverix wrote: post #101
aaronrobinson wrote: post #20

Look for companies and industries that can pass rising costs onto customers more easily. So typically staples over discretionary. Fuel, food, medicine.

Just have a look which companies did good during corona, or which businesses were not affected by the lock down. Those are the real essential ones, which will be safe in a recession.

This is a very different setup than 2020. Governments are done dumping trillions of dollars on the problem.
Post reply on HN