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Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

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Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

#121

Post by radu_floricica »

russiano wrote: post #109
ShivShankaran wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quoted post unavailable.

> do you feel that the Russians have started to detest "West" more? It's certainly true for me and a few more people that I know. I used to be a cookie-cutter west-loving liberal, and now I'm slowly turning into a bitter vatnik. One of the things that made me change my mind (aside from diving deep into the history of the conflict after which many things started to make sense) is seeing how petty and ridiculous sancti…

As an outsider, of course I dislike the average Russian and hold him at least somewhat responsible, for two reasons: 1. his collective historical actions led to Russia being led by a mafia regime and 2. his taxes directly fund the war.

> aside from diving deep into the history of the conflict after which many things started to make sense

I'm very curious about that... would you mind sharing?

Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

#122

Post by netsharc »

throwaway787544 wrote: post #111
russiano wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> do you feel that the Russians have started to detest "West" more? It's certainly true for me and a few more people that I know. I used to be a cookie-cutter west-loving liberal, and now I'm slowly turning into a bitter vatnik. One of the things that made me change my mind (aside from diving deep into the history of the conflict after which many things started to make sense) is seeing how petty and ridiculous sancti…

> However, seeing rabid mccartism and imposing collective guilt only makes me feel under siege. Seeing as that is the whole point of the sanctions, I'd say it's working. The point is to piss off regular Russians enough that at some point they might decide to overthrow their dictator.

No post body was provided.

Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

#123

Post by philwelch »

frosted-flakes wrote: post #101
spaceheater wrote: post #75

I am in Russia right now. Since 18 April it is possible to buy USD, although current rate is slightly higher 77 (Google) vs 86 (that is from an actual local exchange office, not a bank, you can walk in and buy). Since the whole world seems to hate Russians right now, I guess no point buying USD and traveling somewhere. I keep hearing stories how "in just a few months" everything is going to collapse and people will b…

The whole world does not hate Russians. On the contrary, I've seen a lot of empathy for Russians abroad and in Russia who do not support the invasion of and atrocities in the Ukraine but still have to suffer because of the Russian government's, or rather Vladimir Putin's, actions. Obviously, yes, Russians who express support for Putin are hated, rightfully so.

I think that’s what a silent majority of reasonable people might think, but there is still a ton of indiscriminate anti-Russian bigotry going around.

Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

#124

Post by radu_floricica »

gutitout wrote: post #78

I’m surprised I haven’t seen the right answers here yet, so I will chime in. 1. Russia produces 12% of the world's oil and has a similar share of global oil exports. [0] Those purchases are now being made in Rubels.[1] This was a direct retaliation to the USA and European sanction efforts. Before this oil was universally exchanged in USD or EUR. This has helped prop up the Rubel. 2. Russia moving back to a gold stand…

> This makes the Rubel incredibly attractive as it can be a stable currency and easier to purchase than Gold itself.

I'd rather buy tether, or the latest crypto fad. It may be pegged to a gold amount, theoretically, but trying to get your gold out of Russia is the object of many jokes in my home country. Currencies are based on trust, and Russia will get out of this with maybe half a bucketfull of it left intact. I literally can't remember when they said anything not obvious and true.

Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

#125

Post by deepsun »

gutitout wrote: post #89
arroz wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This answer is wrong from what I read Not all countries are buying oil and gas in rubble, just the ones russia considers “unfriendly”. But even from those, russia isnt enforcing it. Germany has said it wouldn’t pay in ruble. US doesn’t buy anything from Russia. Hungary is paying in ruble. By paying in ruble they create an artificial demand for the currency, making it worth more. However Russian government can make th…

“US doesn’t buy anything from Russia.” https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/russian-oil-flows-but-incre... “Germany has said it wouldn’t pay in ruble.“ True. Due to long term contracts in place, some oil is not purchased using rubles. Still, other European countries including Netherlands, Hungary, Poland, Lithuania, Greece and others are purchasing in rubles. Also, India and China are purchasing a large amount of oil. ht…

Any sources on Netherlands and others paying in roubles? Your link doesn't say anything about it. All I heard is about Hungary said they'll pay in roubles, but not sure about any actual payments made.

Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

#126

Post by russiano »

radu_floricica wrote: post #121
russiano wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> do you feel that the Russians have started to detest "West" more? It's certainly true for me and a few more people that I know. I used to be a cookie-cutter west-loving liberal, and now I'm slowly turning into a bitter vatnik. One of the things that made me change my mind (aside from diving deep into the history of the conflict after which many things started to make sense) is seeing how petty and ridiculous sancti…

As an outsider, of course I dislike the average Russian and hold him at least somewhat responsible, for two reasons: 1. his collective historical actions led to Russia being led by a mafia regime and 2. his taxes directly fund the war. > aside from diving deep into the history of the conflict after which many things started to make sense I'm very curious about that... would you mind sharing?

1. How do you reconcile the two thoughts that, at the same time, it's a mafia regime and that people somehow elected them and therefore are responsible?

2. Do you also hold Germans responsible for funding the war? They pay for gas a lot and their contribution is indispensable

>I'm very curious about that... would you mind sharing?

Not sure I am able to direct you to one comprehensive place, but in short, this is a war with NATO that has been brewing for decades but most people thought it'd never happen. As a bonus, I'd recommend checking this thread https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1498491107902062592

Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

#127

Post by exabrial »

There's no doubt extensive manipulation, but don't forget the EU is still buying ""essential"" gas and other petrochemicals from Russia.

Grow a pair: Lift the ban on domestic exploration. Open the floodgates from other countries. People's are dying over cheap gas.

Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

#128

Post by arroz »

gutitout wrote: post #89
arroz wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This answer is wrong from what I read Not all countries are buying oil and gas in rubble, just the ones russia considers “unfriendly”. But even from those, russia isnt enforcing it. Germany has said it wouldn’t pay in ruble. US doesn’t buy anything from Russia. Hungary is paying in ruble. By paying in ruble they create an artificial demand for the currency, making it worth more. However Russian government can make th…

“US doesn’t buy anything from Russia.” https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/russian-oil-flows-but-incre... “Germany has said it wouldn’t pay in ruble.“ True. Due to long term contracts in place, some oil is not purchased using rubles. Still, other European countries including Netherlands, Hungary, Poland, Lithuania, Greece and others are purchasing in rubles. Also, India and China are purchasing a large amount of oil. ht…

The link you posted has absolutely nothing to do with what you quoted

You can say what I am saying is false

I can say what you are saying is false

Sharing so you can learn a bit… https://youtu.be/_PwsU43S_Cs

Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

#129

Post by TMWNN »

pjc50 wrote: post #16

Russian exports have been badly dented, but some oil and gas remains. Russian imports have been completely wrecked. Effectively the sanctions have _improved_ their balance of payments. They have some money, but nobody will sell to them. Slightly different situation from their money being worthless because they're outspending their ability to earn hard currency.

>Russian exports have been badly dented, but some oil and gas remains. Russian imports have been completely wrecked. Effectively the sanctions have _improved_ their balance of payments.

Yes, I think this is the key.

The difference between Russia and Argentina (where gus_massa is) is that in the latter, anyone with US dollars can buy things from/travel to abroad. Thus there is meaningful demand for dollars that contrary to the "official" exchange rate, appears in the unofficial "dolar azul" rate.

By contrast, as spaceheater said, "Since the whole world seems to hate Russians right now, I guess no point buying USD and traveling somewhere".

Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

#130

Post by TMWNN »

gus_massa wrote: post #108
IshKebab wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't see how that can really work unless the published rate isn't the actual market rate which would be ridiculous.

At least here in Argentina, the official exchange rate is US$1=AR$100. But if you want to buy US$1 you must pay from AR$150[1] to AR$200[2] or even more. There are a few methods and each one has different maximal amounts, delays, technical problem and level of legality. [1] It's a very optimistic number, discounting a rebate that will get paid in may 2023, up to US$200 per month per person. [2] Or even more, probably…

>But if you want to buy US$1 you must pay from AR$150[1] to AR$200[2] or even more. There are a few methods and each one has different maximal amounts, delays, technical problem and level of legality.

The recent return to dolar azul after the brief period of the official rate actually being meaningful is very sad.

You have hit on, by the way, why Russia's equivalent to dolar azul is not so different from the official rate. You and any other Argentinean can, with US dollars, buy things from/travel to abroad. As spaceheater said, "Since the whole world seems to hate Russians right now, I guess no point buying USD and traveling somewhere".

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