121–130 of 1001 posts
Huh, not any hilarious predictions yet? - Artificial life forms and pet becomes mainstream. - First experimental artificial wombs for human babies put to test. - Current HIV becomes curable mainstream but another mutation will take its place. It will come from US or Europe. - War will break out in different parts of the world and first AI use for the purpose of killing people. - On demand AI therapist using a wearabl…
Politically: - No meaningful regime change in places like Russia, China, Cuba, North Korea, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Burma, United States. - A meaningful regime change will occur in a boring autocracy that catches everyone by surprise (like Tunisia did a decade ago). Economically: - There will be a major recession in the 2020s. - In 2030 itself, there will be a simmering row over tariffs for carbon emissions. B…
There will be a new American political party that garners mainstream popularity (possibly inhabiting the corpse of one of the parties existing in 2020.) China will fall in power as investment from the west decouples. Nuclear energy will make a PR comeback. There will be at least one scientific breakthrough surrounding the underlying nature of consciousness. Optimism about the possibility of AGI among experts will inc…
Probably a left wing democratic movement.
AI proves P != NP. The proof is 20K pages and not comprehensible by humans, who spend the next 30 years deciphering it, by which time the AI has proved the five remaining millennium problems. The AI elects to keep the Clay Prize money each time and donate it all to homeless chia pets, thus proving general-purpose AI is still a ways off.
* Autonomous tax fleets will be common in cities, but most personal vehicles will still be manually operated (alongside improved level-3 technologies like autopilot and super cruise)
* Google's business will still be dominated by ads, with cloud revenue making up the rest
* Facebook will still be the dominant social media company in the US, although Facebook the product may become niche
* >10 chronic diseases will have been cured using gene therapies
* General-purpose CPUs will have * Crypto-currencies will be seen as a hilarious 2010s bubble; effectively no global commerce will be transacted through them
- AI based systems will start to replace humans in the more mechanical parts of the legal system. Judging traffic court cases could be one example. - One country will invade another country using computer/information attacks as the deciding strike, perhaps Russia invading one of the Eastern Bloc countries. People's mobile phones will simply tell them that there is some kind of natural disaster happening and that they…
1. Trust in journalists and news publications will continue to crater due to their inability to resist clickbait, sloppy ethic controls, and constant hyperboles. 2. China will enter a pronounced recession that is it unable to hide from the world. 3. The EU will lose at-least one more member nation after the United Kingdom leaves. 4. The credibility of scientist and research universities will hit all time lows as the…
While I agree the credibility of scientist and research universities has hit all time lows, I don't see a pullback in funding or any major changes
1. Pension bomb — as you see, is about to go off in Europe. US is a bit safer in that regard as a younger country, and less generous expectations for pension in general. China... yep, lights off on that. 2. Ubiquitous mobile/wireless internet integrated into even very trivial consumer goods — just about to happen 3. A younger/more populist group of politicians will assume power in China. — Well, and even older, and m…
Honestly, I would expect it to go off first in the US. They rely heavily on the stock-markets and have much higher payouts. Many employee funds may just implode (e.g. Illinois teachers fund)
3. A younger/more populist group of politicians will assume power in China.
This is not how it works in China. But Xi will unlikely be still in power in 10 years. His successor will be younger, so not a big prediction.
5. Chinese-American co-dependency crumbles like a bitter divorce This is a 50/50 chance.
6. Brexit — no comments needed Well, the verdict is still open (I am skeptical)
* 2022 Google goes the way of FB in terms of press. * 2023 Apple re-enters the social media market (leveraging iMessage) * 2023 FB starts placing ads on external websites, eating into Google's market * 2024 Amazon's commingling strategy and federated approach to "sellers" & "shippers" turns against it, making room for another major player to enter the market by focusing on quality. * 2024 Comcast stops trying to push…
No, I can't give details. Just running from memory here.