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Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?

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111–120 of 219 posts

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?

#111

My prediction: 2026 looks normal. AI stays the top story but in a boring way as novelty wears off and models get cheaper and faster (maybe even more embedded). No AGI moment. LLMs start feeling like databases or cloud compute. No SpaceX or OpenAI IPO moment. Capital markets quietly reward the boring winners instead. S&P 500 grinds out another double digit year, mostly because earnings keep up and alternatives still l…

I'm not sure OpenAI can realistically afford not to IPO given its spending commitments.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?

#112

* Americans will get their first taste of extended range EVs (full EV powertrain with a tiny ICE that charges the battery) and they explode in popularity. It's the perfect vehicle for the US and most investment in EV charging stations will decrease. * Oral GLP-1s hit the market and the market shares doubles * Both OpenAI and SpaceX IPO * Charlie Kirk's shooter will be executed after being on death row for less than a…

> Americans will get their first taste of extended range EVs (full EV powertrain with a tiny ICE that charges the battery) and they explode in popularity. This happened, it was called the Chevy Volt. Nobody bought it.

Oh that's interesting, I didn't know that. In this case I am talking about the Ram 1500. I think this one will make a splash. A truck with almost 700 miles of range. Americans think they hate EVs but they really hate the lack of EV infrastructure.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?

#113

People's minds will become even lazier due to prolonged daily use of LLMs. They literally won't be able to think for themselves without AI assistance (that's why OpenAI won't fall, btw). Attention spans will drop even lower, causing severe psychological problems. Think 'Digital Dementia 2.0.' Later, LLMs will be portrayed as something evil, yet everyone will still use them. Parents will use them, while telling their…

I don't get this take. My knowledge and engineering has only gone up over time. I read significantly more and higher quality technical information and need to debug problems significantly harder. I think AI will in general make everyone a lot smarter. Maybe the people who use AI as a companion will melt? I'm sure there's some kind of repetitive addiction loop that could melt your brain just like anythibg else though.

It's like saying in the 1970s that people would become dumber because of calculators. It's a tool. You can use it lazily and not learn much, or you use it actively as something that propels you further along in your learning.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?

#115
post #90

Crypto, as an economic and innovation ecosystem, is largely dead, with the partial exception of stablecoins (which are not inherently “crypto” in the ideological/decentralized sense). The core issue is structural: most cryptocurrencies depend on foundations that fund development, marketing, and operations through large token holdings. When prices fall, these entities eventually become forced sellers. At some point, t…

The analysis requires understanding the total addressable market of greater fools. Bitcoin, like any speculative asset, has value as long as people believe its value will go up. When there are no more greater fools to buy in, its value stops going up, so it loses value as a speculative asset. People will sell off to buy other speculative assets, causing a price drop and accelerating sell-off from others who do not want to be bag holders until the asset reaches its intrinsic utility value. Since Bitcoin is strictly worse than alternatives as a form of payment, that value is 0. While this is the ultimate price of Bitcoin, correctly estimating when it will happen requires an understanding of the addressable market, which can change sharply as different countries implement regulation.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?

#116
post #8

YouTube will be so inundated by AI cat and dog videos that people stop watching them altogether. People will automatically assume anything labeled "cute" is fake.

I am in a hospital ward on a ward floor: everyone, every single person, every age, is scrolling 30s AI 'funny and cute' videos 247. It is quite eye opening as I never saw this close enough to actually see what they are doing. I asked why: they say it is funny, entertaining and if there has been no humans involved, they don't care as it is entertaining and fun: they rather have more different than more original/human.…

I don't remember Black Mirror writing this episode. But I didn't watch the latest season either.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?

#118
The collective West will continue its negative momentum. People will continue to seek easy solutions to hard challenges and vote accordingly, making things worse. We'll see further fragmentation of the post-WW2 international order. China does not interrupt while others are making mistakes.

The US stock market will see a correction (and possibly a crash) due to it being generally overvalued, LLM advances unproven for most enterprise contexts, and premature investment in infrastructure. Other stock markets will be dragged down because everything is correlated these days.

Building software continues being commoditized, putting downward pressure on salaries. Software quality diminishes due to prioritizing speed and using LLM output.

Billionaires continue taking control of media companies and continuing using them to influence public thought and discourse. Big budget media production companies show no signs of newfound creativity or risk taking and continues producing remakes, sequels and prequels within existing franchises.

Many people have further diminishing mental health due to a severe value crisis and lack of human connection.

The neurological, cardiovascular and long-term consequences of repeated SARS-CoV-2 infections become better known and understood. But nothing is done to prevent further damage.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?

#119

People's minds will become even lazier due to prolonged daily use of LLMs. They literally won't be able to think for themselves without AI assistance (that's why OpenAI won't fall, btw). Attention spans will drop even lower, causing severe psychological problems. Think 'Digital Dementia 2.0.' Later, LLMs will be portrayed as something evil, yet everyone will still use them. Parents will use them, while telling their…

I don't get this take. My knowledge and engineering has only gone up over time. I read significantly more and higher quality technical information and need to debug problems significantly harder. I think AI will in general make everyone a lot smarter. Maybe the people who use AI as a companion will melt? I'm sure there's some kind of repetitive addiction loop that could melt your brain just like anythibg else though.

I understand it. For example, with AI you don't need to remember stuff. Like there is a command in MacOS (two actually) to flush the DNS cache. I used to memorize it because I needed it like twice a week. These days, I can't remember it. I just tell Copilot to flush the cache for me. It knows what to do.

And it's like that for many things. Complicated Git commands that I rarely need. I used to remember them at least 50% of the time, and if not, I looked them up. Now I just describe what I need to Copilot. But also APIs that I don't need daily. All that stuff that I used to know is gone, because I don't need to look it up anymore, I just tell Copilot or Claude what to do.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?

#120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't get this take. My knowledge and engineering has only gone up over time. I read significantly more and higher quality technical information and need to debug problems significantly harder. I think AI will in general make everyone a lot smarter. Maybe the people who use AI as a companion will melt? I'm sure there's some kind of repetitive addiction loop that could melt your brain just like anythibg else though.

I understand it. For example, with AI you don't need to remember stuff. Like there is a command in MacOS (two actually) to flush the DNS cache. I used to memorize it because I needed it like twice a week. These days, I can't remember it. I just tell Copilot to flush the cache for me. It knows what to do. And it's like that for many things. Complicated Git commands that I rarely need. I used to remember them at least…

Is that really a bad thing? It's like saying Google Maps makes you lazier, because you don't have to learn navigation. And, heck, why stop there: cars are just insanely lazy! You lose all the exercise benefits of walking.
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