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Ask HN: Are people in tech inside an AI echo chamber?

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Re: Ask HN: Are people in tech inside an AI echo chamber?

#111

There's definitely a few echo chambers around AI, but it's definitely not something that "just techies" are onto. ChatGPT made some waves at the end of last year. My in-laws were wanting to talk to (at) me about it at Christmas. There's plenty of awareness outside of the tech circles, but most of the discussion (both out and in of the tech world) seems to miss what LLMs actually _are_. The reason why ChatGPT was impr…

It's not AI. As accurate as it may ever seem, it's simply not actually aware of what it's saying.

Conflating intelligence and awareness seems to me the biggest confusion around this topic.

When non-technical people ask me about it, I ask them to consider three questions:

- is alive?

- thinks?

- can speak (and understand)?

A plant, microbe, primitive animals... are alive, don't think, can't speak.

A dog, a monkey... are alive, think, can't speak.

A human is alive, thinks, can speak.

These things aren't alive, think, can speak.

I know some of the above will be controversial, but clicks for most people, that agree: if you have a dog, you know what I mean whith "a dog thinks". Not with words, but they're capable intricate reasoning and strategies.

Intelligence can be mechanical, the same as force. For a man from the ancient times, the concept of an engine would have been weird. Only live beings were thought to move on their own. When a physical process manifested complex behaviour, they said that a spirit was behind it.

Intelligence doesn't need awareness. You can have disembodied pieces of intelligence. That's what Google, Facebook, etc. have been doing for a long time. They're AI companies.

It doesn't help with the confusion that speaking is a harder condition than thinking and thinking seems to be harder than being alive: "these things aren't alive so they can't think" but they speak, so...

Re: Ask HN: Are people in tech inside an AI echo chamber?

#112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In your opinion, how does the "hallucination" issue differ from the same behaviour we see in humans? I don't claim or believe that any LLM is actually intelligent. It just seems that we (at least on an individual basis) can also meet the criteria outlined above. I know plenty of people who are confidently incorrect and appear unwilling to learn or accept their own limitations, myself included. In my opinion, even if…

> how does the "hallucination" issue differ from the same behaviour we see in humans? In humans “hallucination” means observing false inputs. In GTP it means creating false outputs . Completely different with massively different connotations.

That's kind of the point, but also kind of not.

GPT isn't making true or false outputs. It's just making outputs. The truthiness or falseness of any output is irrelevant because it has no concept of true or false. We're assigning those values to the outputs ourselves, but like... it doesn't know the difference.

It's like blaming a die for a high or a low roll - it's just doing rolls. It has no knowledge of a good or a bad roll. GPT is like a Rube Goldberg machine for rolling dice that's _more likely_ to roll the number that you want, but really it's just rolling dice.

Re: Ask HN: Are people in tech inside an AI echo chamber?

#113
post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> i'm more worried about the ones who will use it this way and assume it's always correct There are plenty of folks who don't fall into this trap. Example: Me. I am fully aware that LLM generated code can be wrong or worse, contain disastrous errors. But being aware of that, and looking for the things I know from experience it commonly gets wrong, allows me to use it as an incredibly powerful tool in my workflow.

I guess it’s a matter of taste, I’d find that fucking horrible.

Why would that be any more horrible than handing routine tasks and boilerplate to a junior and having to review his PR?

With the junior, I need a meeting.

With the LLM, I just let it redo.

Re: Ask HN: Are people in tech inside an AI echo chamber?

#114
post #89
post #81

Same experience, talked to a young, highly educated person about ChatGPT… they had no clue what I was going on about. But the more surprising thing is that even after I explained what it could do, they weren’t even slightly impressed. “So it tells you wrong answers? Sounds utterly pointless” I was flabbergasted. I think we do live in a bubble. I’m sure architects and surgeons have equally exciting advances in their f…

> “So it tells you wrong answers? Sounds utterly pointless”. I was flabbergasted. Could you tell a bit more about why this objection surprised you so much? I am often seeing this in the same tech circles that rejected the web3 craze; and I have to confess, it does sound reasonable to me. There is a recent PR opened in the MDN docs repository after MDN added the "AI explain" button, pointing out how utterly useless a…

There is nothing wrong about the specific objection but, to borrow an analogy from Scott Aaronson, it is rather like dismissing the Wrights’ early airplanes as being slower than a train and only carrying one passenger. What is missing is an appreciation for how intractable the problem seemed five years before.

Re: Ask HN: Are people in tech inside an AI echo chamber?

#115
post #93

I spoke to my 70-year-old step-aunt about this yesterday for exactly this reason. She's a self-employed piano teacher with zero technical interest or knowledge, but a generally astute and clued-up kind of person. She said she's heard a lot about it, but it all sounds like marketing hype, tabloid sensationalism, or open alarmism from people who don't seem to know what they're talking about. She said some of her studen…

> but she found the assertion that mass unemployment is 6-12 months away 'pure speculation'

Who in their right mind has been asserting that?

Re: Ask HN: Are people in tech inside an AI echo chamber?

#117
No, we're in a hype bubble. This one includes several meme complexes, the largest of which is shouting "LLMs/GNNs are AI!"

By applying the label AI, they bring in the connotations of all the stories we have told ourselves about djinn, golems, robots, HAL-9000, Skynet, and (not frequently enough) the Sirius Cybernetics Corporation.

Re: Ask HN: Are people in tech inside an AI echo chamber?

#118
post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t see any evidence that it’s there yet. I do see that potential if AI were to improve dramatically, but I think we’re tricking ourselves into thinking it’s already here because what we’re seeing is so compelling. The reality as far as I can tell is that we still have an incredible distance to go to have anything comparable to unlocking spoken or written language.

I guess it's your right to believe that as long as you want, the evidence is that it's beating people at every exam like AP exams and GRE exams and bar exams and medical certification exams and not only like regurgitating facts but it's also superhuman level in theory of mind. And all that comes from just an architecture that reads every text and uses a lot of GPU power.

Yeah right, it can answer written form exams that are similar to previous ones, and are expressed in formulaic ways. That's impressive, don't get me wrong, but it's also already clear that ChatGPT makes for a terrible lawyer (inventing cases looks bad) and literally can't act as a doctor cause it doesn't have, like, a body, or a sense of empathy. It's like saying that it got the theory part of a driving test correct so now we have self driving figured out.

Re: Ask HN: Are people in tech inside an AI echo chamber?

#119
The difference from the crypto wave was the crypto wave didn't surface too many applications outside the crypto-sphere.

In this case it seems kinda the opposite, the enterprises are the first off the bat - existing products getting easier to use by ingraining LLM's into the workflow.

ChatGPT to a large extent also does seem to be moving search terms away from google. I would love to see trends on google.com vs ChatGPT vs Bing over a period of time - Search definitely seems to be changing, where we want summaries and content rather than a bunch of sponsored ads and websites where the context has to be derived from search.

I am also interested if the same is happening with StackOverflow -> the search on SO -> ChatGPT as a code generator.

For mainstream adoption, the adoption will be driven by the everyday software and applications we use. We are still in the shovels and picks part of the world, yet to see native AI consumer applications emerge (barring ChatGPT).

Re: Ask HN: Are people in tech inside an AI echo chamber?

#120
I live in Japan and have been surprised by how much coverage there has been of ChatGPT in the mass media here during the past few months. Popular awareness seems to be increasing quickly, too. Here are some results of a survey conducted by Line Research [1, in Japanese]:

Question: Do you know about ChatGPT? If yes, have you used it?

(n = 1056 in both March and June)

March 2023

Know about it and have used it: 4.8%

Know about it but haven’t used it: 25.5%

Don’t know about it: 69.7%

June 2023

Know about it and have used it: 15.2%

Know about it but haven’t used it: 55.8%

Don’t know about it: 29.1%

The survey also suggests that awareness is higher among younger people and that usage is higher among males.

Search results at Amazon Japan and Amazon USA show that many books are being published about ChatGPT in both Japanese and English [2, 3]. Quite a few Japanese magazines have had cover stories about it recent months [4].

[1] https://markezine.jp/article/detail/42509

[2] https://www.amazon.co.jp/s?k=ChatGPT

[3] https://www.amazon.com/s?k=ChatGPT&ref=nav_bb_sb

[4] https://www.amazon.co.jp/s?k=ChatGPT&rh=n%3A13384021&__mk_ja...

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