Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Ask HN: How to prosper under negative interest rates?

news.ycombinator.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

111–120 of 259 posts

Re: Ask HN: How to prosper under negative interest rates?

#111

Post by jnordwick »

Der_Einzige wrote: post #91
thorwasdfasdf wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

but we're not having deflation. With fewer and fewer people working, there's less and less supply with even larger demand, now that they're printing money like never before. As a result, we're going to get really really serious inflation of over 2%, 3%, maybe even more than 3%. It doesn't sound like much because we've become innured to it. But, it's really bad. Just think, you earned 100K in 1 year and 1 year later i…

At the moment, foreign demand for the dollar is so high that we are experiencing deflation (liquidity is still too low which is entirely why the fed is moving towards negative interest rates), in spite of the money printer going "brrrrr"

This is actually more true than people realize. Gold is down to flat even after the the huge Fed announcements. The CRB index has been getting crushed in the last month. But this short-term liquidity demand is going to go away. The real inflation story is going to be when it does and the economy settles down. Then we will have all these programs that pumped huge amounts of money into the system, and unless they are sanitized watch out. I've seen people losing a lot of money on gold calls, but i think the proper time for that is going to be when this short-term credit demand has dried up and business starts returning to normal.

Re: Ask HN: How to prosper under negative interest rates?

#112

Post by fauigerzigerk »

solaxun wrote: post #103
qeternity wrote: post #8

You have to look at real rates, not nominal rates. The only markets that have negative nominal rates are battling deflation (which the US is not) or have serious liquidity concerns at the moment. The Fed is unlikely to go negative as they face a very different beast. Here's a quick example. Let's say you're in a deflationary environment: in 1 year, your money actually buys you more than it did last year, let's say fo…

"So, since you don't want to store that money under your mattress"... I never understood/agreed with this argument. I'd much rather withdraw all my money and keep it in a safe than lock in a loss. I suppose for most people though the minor loss of principal outweighs that inconvenience, but for me, as a matter of principle, I refuse to be paid less than my principal (I didn't mean for that to come out as cheesy as it…

So you would rather buy a safe and take out insurance than pay a fee to someone who already has both (i.e a bank)?

Re: Ask HN: How to prosper under negative interest rates?

#113

Post by buboard »

chvid wrote: post #25

You don't build wealth by saving. You do it by investing using leverage. The system subsidises debt and risk-taking (within limits) by inflation and the structure of the tax system. You need to let go of the idea that it is immoral. Buy a house and when you can buy a bigger house. Put your money in the growth part of the stock market (technology ... big names like Apple and Amazon is good). Use your income to take on…

I think the question is what do you do with the wealth after you build it. Having your entire wealth constantly invested is making it a cog that works to make other ppl richer.

Re: Ask HN: How to prosper under negative interest rates?

#114

Post by WJW »

solaxun wrote: post #103
qeternity wrote: post #8

You have to look at real rates, not nominal rates. The only markets that have negative nominal rates are battling deflation (which the US is not) or have serious liquidity concerns at the moment. The Fed is unlikely to go negative as they face a very different beast. Here's a quick example. Let's say you're in a deflationary environment: in 1 year, your money actually buys you more than it did last year, let's say fo…

"So, since you don't want to store that money under your mattress"... I never understood/agreed with this argument. I'd much rather withdraw all my money and keep it in a safe than lock in a loss. I suppose for most people though the minor loss of principal outweighs that inconvenience, but for me, as a matter of principle, I refuse to be paid less than my principal (I didn't mean for that to come out as cheesy as it…

In order to make the calculation 'correctly', don't forget to price in the correct amount of risk. As an example, say there is a 0.2% chance in any given year of your house catching fire, either through your own fault or from a neighboring property on fire. If there is a 50% chance of you being able to rescue the money in such a situation, then that is an estimated 0.1% loss in any given year. There is also a similarly priceable risk for theft etc, which would probably increase with the amount stored. If it becomes known that there is 500k in cash stored in your house, there are probably plenty of people greedy or desperate enough to break in with heavy tooling when you're out and steal the whole safe.

Re: Ask HN: How to prosper under negative interest rates?

#115

Post by hnarn »

mdorazio wrote: post #107
thorwasdfasdf wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

but we're not having deflation. With fewer and fewer people working, there's less and less supply with even larger demand, now that they're printing money like never before. As a result, we're going to get really really serious inflation of over 2%, 3%, maybe even more than 3%. It doesn't sound like much because we've become innured to it. But, it's really bad. Just think, you earned 100K in 1 year and 1 year later i…

1) Once again, inflation does not work that way. If it did, it would have been out of control in 2009. Instead, it was near zero. The same thing is happening right now. 2) The idea that 2-3% inflation is "really really serious" is completely absurd. I'm guessing you're young because historical US inflation prior to the ridiculous post-2009 financial situation had long periods of being well above 3% and the sky didn't…

For context, the inflation goal set by the Swedish national bank is 2%. That's what they're aiming for, so clearly it's not "really really serious". CNBC also states that:

>The Fed considers a 2% inflation rate to be a sign of sustainable growth and a level that keeps interest rates high enough to allow for mobility in the event of an economic downturn.

Re: Ask HN: How to prosper under negative interest rates?

#116

Post by buboard »

thorwasdfasdf wrote: post #78

>> I was brought up to work diligently, not take on debt, and save It absolutely will put you at a huge disadvantage, through no fault of your own. The whole point is to transfer money from savers to debtors. And, there's no getting away from it, unless you take on large risks. The govt is pushing for more and more inflation. We've already had high inflation for the last couple of years of over 2%, and they're still…

That makes a case for non-centrally-manipulated assets like gold or crypto

Re: Ask HN: How to prosper under negative interest rates?

#117

Post by bwanab »

tathougies wrote: post #76
s1t5 wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the meantime Buffett currently holds more cash than just about anyone else on the planet - over $120 billion in cash equivalents at the end of last year. Yes, his point that cash loses its value over time is true. No, he didn't get to where he is just by holding cash. Yes, your situation and mine are vastly different from Buffett's. But it just shows that things aren't as simple as "cash=bad".

Cash equivalents include commercial paper and bonds. Cash equivalents are not the same as cash.

There’s a reason they’re called cash “equivalents”.

Re: Ask HN: How to prosper under negative interest rates?

#118

Post by buboard »

marcus_holmes wrote: post #84
pjc50 wrote: post #47

> I was brought up to work diligently, not take on debt, and save - a simple approach to building wealth This basically doesn't build wealth, it builds a pile of money which you can draw down in the future. Not nothing and good to have at the base of a pension, but once you've gone beyond the basics it doesn't do much. It's mere deferred consumption, it's not making anything. Now you have to face three problems: - th…

This is a really good time to start a business. Established competition will be struggling because their spending is based on "normal" business but their revenues got hit. When the lockdown stops there's going to be a spending surge (because everyone has been forced to save for months).

Yeah , plus what else is there to do? This is a once in lifetime opportunity to risk your time

Re: Ask HN: How to prosper under negative interest rates?

#120

Post by m11a »

adaisadais wrote: post #40
al_chemist wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You don't build wealth by saving. You do it by investing using leverage. For some reason, this sounds like "you don't build wealth by saving. You do it by lottery and scratchcards!"

Warren Buffett talks about how cash is a bad thing to have over time as it can’t keep up inflation (1). He does advocating having enough on hand to “sleep at night”. But you really can’t build wealth by stocking money away in a savings account. Trump and his administration could have really done something awesome. He essentially got given the golden ticket for presidents: create a legacy. T. Roosevelt had parka, FDR…

Those presidents had remote wars and recessions as their triggers.

Trump has a pandemic. Ultimately, you can't really go out and build a high speed railway during a pandemic, when you want to enforce social distancing and isolations (construction is the opposite to social distancing). And the US is so big that high speed rail would still be an awful way to go cross-country (it's only really effective within states), perhaps effective for transporting goods but a guess on the data suggests this isn't economic. Dumping money into schools won't fix education, either.

Trump could've perhaps weaponised coronavirus better, but not by through of these ways. That said, he has chartered a course for the most 'socialist' action in recent American history, though: free money. I'd like to see if and how this impacts the future, perhaps it may affect the timeline of implementing a UBI.

Post reply on HN