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Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

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Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#111

Post by PeterisP »

pdonis wrote: post #5
jamesdmiller wrote: post #2

The endgame is to figure out the least cost sustainable measures of getting R0<1 until we have a vaccine or treatment safe enough for people in high risk groups to take.

> The endgame is to figure out the least cost sustainable measures of getting R0 The question assumes this has already been done: "single cases here and there, maybe even 0 cases". It seems to me that the key question at that point is, if there are no active cases--everyone exposed to the virus who is still alive has either never developed symptoms in the first place, or has recovered from whatever symptoms they had…

It does not assume that - Wuhan currently has R0<1 and it did not and still does not have "single cases here and there, maybe even 0 cases"; R0<1 through a lockdown is a tested (in Wuhan) way to get from tens of thousands of cases to just tens of new cases per day and probably eventually to single isolated cases here and there. But we'd really like to find a less invasive, more sustainable set measures than what was done in Wuhan.

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#112

Post by unlinked_dll »

mdavidn wrote: post #94
bcrosby95 wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because it's too late. The time for that in the US was at least two weeks ago. This is why the US response to this has been driving so many of us crazy. The later you respond the fewer options you have.

One other consideration: The population of the United States is six times larger than South Korea's. Keep this in mind when comparing the total number of cases in each country.

See I disagree with this perspective.

Yea, we're bigger. We also have more cities with high populations. But What SK did primarily in Seoul is the perfect pilot program to expand into national policy.

The problem is our government is filled with people deferring upward for decision making until it was too late.

Even today, the President went on TV with "guidelines." Not policy, not action, and certainly not teeth behind those guidelines. This is the inaction that we're fuming about.

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#113

Post by asdfasgasdgasdg »

neuronic wrote: post #96
samatman wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The more optimistic way of looking at this is: the 'flatten the curve' scenario has to get so close to R0 This is difficult, not impossible. We'll see what actually happens.

Looking at the people happily strolling around and gathering in public cafes as if nothing was going on, I severely doubt it. (large city in Germany btw)

They will get with the program once one or two people they know die.

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#114

Post by jlgaddis »

totaldude87 wrote: post #46

One word... Summer.. once the summer starts and we see 30c or above , i think the spread will be limited and the quarantine might end. But, worrying part is what comes next, without a Vaccine, coming Winter might be lethal, and we may end up with same cycle.. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3074131/coro...

The President of the U.S. has said this, but pretty much any medical expert I've seen on television has said there's zero evidence to support that assertion at this point.

In other words, don't count on it (additionally, ignoring any "medical information" that comes out of POTUS' mouth is likely a good idea, too).

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#115

Post by asdfasgasdgasdg »

neuronic wrote: post #99
ArnoVW wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is my understanding that the church is sort of a cult, and it's followers hide their membership. This illustrates the challenge with tracing approaches: if people are not open, or not sufficiently aware of the consequences of their actions, it's very easy to miss infections.

Today and yesterday I have seen countless people who just dont care. Viral pandemic currently causing society to shut down? Let's go meet in a cafe! And that's not even the, sorry, assholes at the supermarkets. It was insane today.

The supermarket is not necessarily an optional trip. People have to eat, and if they're not eating in cafes, they're going to get their food at the market.

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#116

Post by diN0bot »

adaisadais wrote: post #75

I remember all of the statistical problems centered around virality that we would have to do in college. The problems always seemed so make-believe and dystopian. Now my company is close to going out of business and I have just been laid off. Partly due to high-ranking officials not believing in the virality of nCov-19. I can't get W.B. Yeats "The Second Coming" from 1919 out of my head: "Turning and turning in the w…

i like your comments. send me a note if you're looking for support in your job search. details in profile.

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#117

Post by notyourday »

lultimouomo wrote: post #100
notyourday wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are suppressors of symptoms/disease management helpers not cures. Ebola patients either die or their immune system fights off the disease.

That's patently false. Antivirals slow the reproduction rate of the virus giving your immune system the upper hand; monoclonal antibodies do exactly what your immune system would do, they bind to the virus either neutralizing it or allowing macrophages to detect and destroy it.

Except that CDC disagrees:

Herpes:

https://www.cdc.gov/std/herpes/treatment.htm

Is there a cure or treatment for herpes? There is no cure for herpes. Antiviral medications can, however, prevent or shorten outbreaks during the period of time the person takes the medication. In addition, daily suppressive therapy (i.e. daily use of antiviral medication) for herpes can reduce the likelihood of transmission to partners.

Several clinical trials have tested vaccines against genital herpes infection, but there is currently no commercially available vaccine that is protective against genital herpes infection. One vaccine trial showed efficacy among women whose partners were HSV-2 infected, but only among women who were not infected with HSV-1. No efficacy was observed among men whose partners were HSV-2 infected. A subsequent trial testing the same vaccine showed some protection from genital HSV-1 infection, but no protection from HSV-2 infection.

Ebola:

https://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/treatment/index.html

Antiviral Drugs There is currently no antiviral drug licensed by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to treat EVD in people.

During the 2018 eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo outbreak, four investigational treatments were initially available to treat patients with confirmed Ebola. For two of those treatments, called regeneron (REGN-EB3) and mAb114, overall survival was much higher. These two antiviral drugs currently remain in use for patients with confirmed Ebola.

Drugs that are being developed to treat EVD work by stopping the virus from making copies of itself.

TL;DR; at best we can manage.

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#118

Post by mardifoufs »

inscionent wrote: post #20
complianceowl wrote: post #14

[flagged]

Take your xenophobic yammering elsewhere please.

His tone was out of place but I don't see any xenophobia in his comment? Is it not ok to criticize China? China really did made huge mistakes early on. And there has been a lot of criticism towards the EU and the US too.

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#119

Post by mirimir »

samatman wrote: post #69
smoyer wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I saw a statistical analysis of the flatten the curve idea but assuming we couldn't ramp up the number of intensive care beds, it took 3600 days to fit everyone in under the "available health care" line. It's still a good strategy for right now because it gives us some extra time to ramp testing and healthcare up.

The more optimistic way of looking at this is: the 'flatten the curve' scenario has to get so close to R0 This is difficult, not impossible. We'll see what actually happens.

Maybe in some countries. But it's a big world.

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#120

Post by tartuffe »

drclau wrote: post #56
drstewart wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Total quarantine isn't happening in any western country

That is not correct for some days now. Many other countries in EU have entered a state of emergency with various levels of quarantine at national level: Italy (but that's old news), Spain, France, Belgium, Estonia etc. None as extreme as China, but measures are intensifying gradually. In Czech Republic, only essential businesses are allowed to function, although the measures are not as extreme as they were in China.…

As of tonight in France, the governement just forbad citizen to go outside FOR WHATEVER REASON unless you have an authorization delivered by the prime minister site for : 1) essential work that cannot be done remotly, 2) essential shopping and 3) walking / jogging alone to not get mad and stay healthy. For now, nobody really know anything about this authorization whose details will be available in the following hours.
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