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Ask HN: Do you trust solo entrepreneurs?

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Re: Ask HN: Do you trust solo entrepreneurs?

#101

Post by ezekg »

Alex3917 wrote: post #13

For your typical solo founder in their 30s, their odds of dying at any point over the next 10 years is something like 0.2%. And short of them dying, their business isn't going anywhere because keeping a SaaS startup online doesn't cost anything -- if you have the skills to do it yourself. Whereas the odds of a venture backed startup shutting down at any point over the next ten years is something like 30%. So from a r…

I should hire you as my sales guy. I say this same thing often to leads that are worried about my bus factor of 1.

Oddly, most of the time its other small businesses that are worried.

Re: Ask HN: Do you trust solo entrepreneurs?

#102

Post by lazide »

dokein wrote: post #31
javajosh wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IANAA (I am not an actuary) but surely this can't be the entire computation. Death is only one reason a solo SaaS might fail. The real problem is mental noise, and the fact that large organizations have the positive side-effect of averaging out that noise to produce coherent, predictable actions. (The humanist wants to point out the "noise" is sentiment, artistry, beauty, and the coherent behavior is that of a profit…

I don't think one needs to be an actuary to appreciate that comparing the mortality rate of solo founders with the failure rate of VC backed companies doesn't make sense. When he is asked to defend it, he clarifies that he's only talking about companies that solve a major pain point, have no other competitors, and a low cost of implementation. (Obviously the failure rate of VC-backed companies with amazing PMF and am…

We all believe what we need to, or something like that.

Re: Ask HN: Do you trust solo entrepreneurs?

#104

Post by thsijustin »

codingdave wrote: post #23
Alex3917 wrote: post #13

For your typical solo founder in their 30s, their odds of dying at any point over the next 10 years is something like 0.2%. And short of them dying, their business isn't going anywhere because keeping a SaaS startup online doesn't cost anything -- if you have the skills to do it yourself. Whereas the odds of a venture backed startup shutting down at any point over the next ten years is something like 30%. So from a r…

If it is working for you, that is great, but... Death is not the only reason people quit working on a project. They could get a better offer, their family situation could change, they could get sick or injured, or they could simply get sick of it, just to name a few. Also, keeping a SaaS online does cost money. And those costs increase as you scale. If you are small enough that you can run on a free tier, you are too…

Meanwhile 80% of the previous generations Fortune 500 are gone.

Everything dies. This simple minded confidence game we require each other play to validate usefulness is getting old.

You’re one of seven billion humans who will die, one of millions of programmers to pick from to prop up trade of Daddy Dollars.

You’re not sticking around either and cannot prove your contributions were truly more valuable than anyone else’s (models have been built to ascertain which human leadership traits and which technology make us more productive and all became too complex to understand).

Don’t blink though; keep pretending we’re onto something with folksy anecdotes, and nostalgia for past wins.

Re: Ask HN: Do you trust solo entrepreneurs?

#105

Post by dahart »

Alex3917 wrote: post #13

For your typical solo founder in their 30s, their odds of dying at any point over the next 10 years is something like 0.2%. And short of them dying, their business isn't going anywhere because keeping a SaaS startup online doesn't cost anything -- if you have the skills to do it yourself. Whereas the odds of a venture backed startup shutting down at any point over the next ten years is something like 30%. So from a r…

> the odds of a venture backed startup shutting down at any point over the next ten years is something like 30%.

Where is this number from? Googling, I see numbers like 75% of venture backed startups failing [1] and 90% of all startups failing, most of that within the first year. The suggestion that 70% of venture startups live for at least a decade smells unlikely.

[1] https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10000872396390443720204578004...

> from a risk perspective, it's literally over 100x more risky to use a software product made by a venture backed company than one from a solo founder.

Yeah, no this is not even close to true (because, as many others have pointed out, death is not the primary risk to a solo founder, funding & motivation are). Unfunded startups fail at a higher rate than venture backed, from what I can find. YC funds solo founders, but advises trying to find a co-founder because the risks are higher. https://www.ycombinator.com/library/7P-does-yc-fund-solo-fou...

Re: Ask HN: Do you trust solo entrepreneurs?

#107

Post by tnolet »

JamesSwift wrote: post #77

For random SAAS/utility things, no. For actual, core, software yeah absolutely. But theres a big difference between solo developer and "literally the only person that will ever be involved". If you are dealing with businesses then you need to act like a business. There needs to be contingency planning and availability. Another commenter gave their story of how one such dev didn't have support triage setup when they t…

This is very true and rings close to home.

I was a solo dev / sole entrepreneur for ~2 years, then raised. My product could be considered core. This meant that at about 1,5 years in I was basically unable to take a holiday (picture me sitting on the hotel bed during a family outing answering tickets, fixing infra).

Having continuity, support etc. all are basics you need to have once serious customers join. Even more simple, you need code reviews! You need a second pair of brains / eyes to actually make things better. Edit: and don't forget on-call. Being on-call for 2 years straight is not good for almost everything in your personal life.

Re: Ask HN: Do you trust solo entrepreneurs?

#108

Post by tnolet »

Alex3917 wrote: post #13

For your typical solo founder in their 30s, their odds of dying at any point over the next 10 years is something like 0.2%. And short of them dying, their business isn't going anywhere because keeping a SaaS startup online doesn't cost anything -- if you have the skills to do it yourself. Whereas the odds of a venture backed startup shutting down at any point over the next ten years is something like 30%. So from a r…

The "dying" of the company seems less relevant than the 1 person company just not being able to deliver the level of service required to compete, be reliable (think support, on call) etc.

Re: Ask HN: Do you trust solo entrepreneurs?

#109

Post by grassmudhorse »

Alex3917 wrote: post #13

For your typical solo founder in their 30s, their odds of dying at any point over the next 10 years is something like 0.2%. And short of them dying, their business isn't going anywhere because keeping a SaaS startup online doesn't cost anything -- if you have the skills to do it yourself. Whereas the odds of a venture backed startup shutting down at any point over the next ten years is something like 30%. So from a r…

You're looking at the wrong metrics. The risk of using a solo-dev product is them losing interest and stopping support (or as someone else pointed out, not being able to deliver the required level of support).

Both types of products also have a chance of being bought for cheap when they are failing, and at least kept alive on life support.

Re: Ask HN: Do you trust solo entrepreneurs?

#110

Post by taylodl »

I treat solo entrepreneurs the same way I treat small companies that have a high probability of not remaining in business in five years: a risk. A risk doesn't mean I'm not going to do business with you, it simply means I have something needing to be mitigated. Typically I mitigate that risk via the use of an escrow service.

If you're not familiar with escrow services they are a mutually trusted 3rd party. You provide your source code, build tools, etc. - everything needed to re-create the distributed artifacts - to the escrow service and they verify that has been done. Should you go out of business or some other event in your sales contract is triggered the escrow company will provide those materials to your customer. My recommendation would be to find a reputable escrow company you like and utilize them. You can have them on the ready when you're creating your sales contract.

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