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Ask HN: What’s a big trend we should all be following?

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Re: Ask HN: What’s a big trend we should all be following?

#102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That pretty much going the opposite. The Euro is in real trouble, the pound can't because the UK economy is too small, and no one trust china with any power.

Why would the euro be in real trouble. The only thing I see is Hungary and interference of China, but those things will usually resolve themselves. Nobody trusts China = I agree. I don't think anyone considers even the pound. But, Trump made sure that a lot of people are starting to back away from the US. So I can't agree with the "going the opposite part". If Trump would see another term i foresee huge troubles ahea…

> Why would the euro be in real trouble.

How about zero net economic growth for 20-25 years and no prospect of that trend changing?

Countries in the Eurzone who have seen negative real economic growth since 2007 or 2008:

Belgium, the Netherlands, Austria, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain

The only growth economies over the past decade are smaller: Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Ireland

In 2008 Germany's GDP per capita hit $45,400. In 2019 it was $46,500. That's a massive real negative contraction given the debasement of the Euro and even a tiny bit of real inflation per year. That's the most potent economy in all of Europe and certainly in the Eurozone. The outcomes for France, Italy and Spain are that much worse over that span of time. Now Germany is facing a big hit to their advanced industrial foundations, as China and electric cars eat into the things they do particularly well. Germany will suffer de-industrialization (which they've held off longer than anyone else) and they have no replacement plan for that situation. Will Germany somehow come up with a massive, global tech economy to rival the US and China? There's no evidence of trend in the past decade. How does the Eurozone fare well without Germany moving it forward? It doesn't.

In the time the Eurozone has stagnated the US went from a GDP per capita of $48,300 to $65,000 and the US economy will again recover from the pandemic faster than Europe's economy, broadly, will; for the exact same reason it did with the great recession. That will add further weakness to the Euro by contrast.

Here's what that stagnation looks like: https://i.imgur.com/ep9kSOw.jpg

Besides that giant problem, Germany is going to again face enormous pressure around the way they inflate the value of the Euro at the expense of Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece (making them not-as-competitive on exports). As with the non-recovery after the great recession, that problem will again be amplified and felt as these economies attempt to recover from the pandemic recession. They all know it's unfair that Germany gets to free-ride on a cheap currency (cheap for Germany, expensive for Italy & Co), producing the world's largest trade imbalance.

So the Eurozone is already on year 12-13 of negative growth. They were just beginning to inch above the great recession line of 2007-2008 in nominal terms. Now they've been reset by a minimum of five years, given how slow the major Eurozone economies have been growing. More likely, it's going to be a lost 20-25 years in total, stretching from 2007 to 2027 or 2032 approximately. And then at some point the next recession will hit, and on it goes.

The Euro is not going to do well accordingly.

Re: Ask HN: What’s a big trend we should all be following?

#104

Electric bicycles (and other light electrics) are going to remake the world's cities in the next 30 years. The signs are already in place. The biggest transformational factor is the lack of exhaust allowing a lot of personal transport to be moved indoors.

https://micromobility.io/podcast is a good podcast on this topic.

Re: Ask HN: What’s a big trend we should all be following?

#105
post #57

Remote work. 20 years of progress were consolidated into the last 3 months. Previously, you saw people living in hubs like SF and NYC for the high salary and high prestige jobs. But when those jobs are available from anywhere, all of a sudden the "lifestyle cities" like Boulder, Boise, Chattanooga, etc. start to look a whole lot better. You no longer have to sacrifice the high-prestige career to live in a lower cost-…

I am really skeptical of this idea that suddenly people will be moving to small cities. For one, this assumes that people just move to big cities to work. Is there any research to prove that ? For most people, especially when they are younger, people gravitate to big cities for all the amenities that come with the big city living, jobs being one of them. So in essence, it is jobs chasing people into big cities, rathe…

It is first career for me then I saw all these art scene and food and stuff but that I can lose.

Re: Ask HN: What’s a big trend we should all be following?

#106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The podcast Pivot has a host who has referred to Coronavirus as "the great accelerator", meaning trends that were grabbing hold have only sped up under the pandemic. Remote work is definitely one of those. I'm curious if your last paragraph holds true or not. The same thing was said about "digital nomads" in the freelance space. While it certainly got a lot of headlines and made a lot of people have some wonderful fa…

you don't have to be a digital nomad. We've been living in a rural'ish city (Cedar city, UT), that isn't a tech hub for awhile now. I'm a freelance dev (underpaid probably $40/hr). But, I like living wherever I want, and not having to move. Plus wife's family is nearby which comes in handy. I think one big thing though about the have-nots divide increasing is this is going to speed up automation unlike anything we've…

Removing cashiers and automating checkouts just frees up the staff to focus on other in-store work. But the biggest benefit is higher throughput for checkouts. Self service checkouts or automated checkouts free up space for more such counters.

Re: Ask HN: What’s a big trend we should all be following?

#107
Scientific machine learning. The ability to mix scientific knowledge with machine learning in order to allow it to extrapolate accurately from small amounts of data. As machine learning tries to move towards areas where large-scale data gathering is prohibitively expensive or even unethical (like in clinical trials: you can't have a million failures to train a neural network!), mixing scientific models with machine learning will be required to bring AI into these domains in a way that's beyond hype. Physics-informed neural networks [1], differentiable programming [2], universal differential equations [3], SInDy [4], etc. are all ideas directions I think is the next direction for machine learning.

  [1] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0021999118307125
  [2] https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.07587
  [3] https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.04385
  [4] https://www.pnas.org/content/113/15/3932

Re: Ask HN: What’s a big trend we should all be following?

#108
More humility and reassessment of our way of life.

We need a fundamental reassessment of our impact on the environment and planet, and how to reshape our economies and lifestyle to avert climate warming, more severe hurricane and wildfire seasons.

There’s so much human ingenuity and i believe we can overcome these challenges.. but despite all the technological advancements, we still know so little of how our planet and climate work.

We think we are the apex predator, and yet we’re still held hostage by an invisible virus.

Re: Ask HN: What’s a big trend we should all be following?

#109

Generally, subcultures. If you know about it now, you've already missed it. Specifically, post-covid personal reckonings and a desire for the essential, remote work causing an upper-middle flight from cities and a change in business culture that advantages agile and literate workers, sadly more political polarization with popular reaction only just beginning, a milennial demographic baby bust, a wave of cultural nost…

> Generally, subcultures. If you know about it now, you've already missed it.

I don't know about it, even now.

Can you explain a bit more? Is it just that the pandemic adjusted the value of certain industries/services, and the adjustment has now occurred? Other than that, business as normal: growing inequality within nations?

Re: Ask HN: What’s a big trend we should all be following?

#110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On top of this. Understanding the difference between acceptance, and being 'non-racist' vs being 'anti-racist' - which is what the movement needs more than anything. True allies are embracing the 'anti-racist' term and shutting down every symbol of racism. Look at the rebranding of Mrs. Butterworths, Aunt Jemima, Cream of Wheat, Uncle Ben. Look at cities willing to remove Christopher Columbus statues, etc.. there's b…

I vehemently disagree. This hysterical scramble to label everything as racist regardless of merit, and suffocate any rational discussion of issues, is tearing the fabric of society apart, and only serves to dilute the message against police brutality.

The US was founded on slavery and racism. The majority of Constitutional signatories owned slaves. Slavery was written into the Constitution in the 3/5ths clause. The majority of people on our paper money owned slaves. Black people make far less money than white people, they are vastly under represented in politics, far more likely to be imprisoned, have lower life expectancy, have far lower accrued wealth, rarely see themselves represented reasonably in media, are far less likely to hold professional or C-level jobs, and are far more likely to grow up in poverty in single parent households. If it isn’t the case that “everything is racist” (i.e. our society harbors deep cultural, institutional, and systemic racism) then that’s a hell of a coincidence.
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