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Ask HN: What are you reading to make sense of the economy?

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Re: Ask HN: What are you reading to make sense of the economy?

#101

Post by oDot »

nicoburns wrote: post #100
oDot wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The establishment you describe in step 1 is the government. Wall street could not do what they do now without government involvement. They will run out of money, and have to suffer the losses of the bad loans they make, instead of relying on the Fed to save them by depreciating the money of regular working people.

Agreed. Although one might note that those involved in wall-street are highly likely to be amongst those voting for conservative governments that are enacting these policies.

Both aisles, conservatives and leftists, support Cronyism with their actions. It was the Bush adminstration that came up with the plan the save Wall Street, and it was Obama's that passed that plan, in one form or another.

Re: Ask HN: What are you reading to make sense of the economy?

#102

Post by tomrod »

oDot wrote: post #19

The only school that has any explanation for this is the Austrian School of Economics. Their theory of the business cycle is the reason they successfully predict every crisis to the tee (except for timing, no one can do that), while other economists are just blown away in surprise that it even happened. Mises and Hayek wrote big and hard to read books about it, but two that explain this to the layman are "Meltdown" b…

I disagree that ABC is the only school of thought that has an explanation. Almost every economic school of thought can discuss decreases in aggregate demand and aggregate supply. Not every school of thought may have theories regarding the drivers thereof, which is a feature ABC spends a lot of time on, but some do and most can assess and even build predictions for anticipation.

As an example where ABC will go off the rails, our current crisis is not one build up due to overage in inventory, a favored ideal rationale for ABC to explain the business cycle. Much more explanatory, surprisingly, is Keynesian animal spirits.

Re: Ask HN: What are you reading to make sense of the economy?

#103

Post by tigerlily »

FWIW, if you're in New Zealand you can follow economic news updates from www.interest.co.nz.

It's an impressive aggregation of data and journalism. But boy could their site do with some improvement... Could be some work in it?

There's a comments section under every article, and a motley community of dedicated "common 'taters". Plenty of workers, business owners, property darklords, doomers, prospective first home buyers, trolls, and even a few wise farmers. I find it helpful to guage the vibe of what is happening on the ground. Deep down, I think what's really needed is a forum.

Re: Ask HN: What are you reading to make sense of the economy?

#105

Post by postingawayonhn »

RobertoG wrote: post #71
postingawayonhn wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think the Austrian School explains what's happened so far, but may help explain some of what is to come. Everything we've seen so far is simply the result of people not being able to operate their businesses. What we will soon see is businesses closing down and probably mass default on debt. I do believe that the Keynesian economics that has been practiced for the last few decades has left the global economy…

Keynesian economics has been practiced for the last few decades? Where? They don't call it the neoliberal period for nothing. If you are talking about the QE programs, that's what Keynesian economics would call "pushing a string". Keynesian would be fiscal policies, not monetary policies.

> Keynesian would be fiscal policies

Well most governments around the world have been running deficits (the US to the tune of~$1T annually) since the last recession. I consider that to be some pretty serious fiscal stimulus.

Re: Ask HN: What are you reading to make sense of the economy?

#106

Post by fbonetti »

IAmGraydon wrote: post #48
oDot wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This crisis was not caused by the Corona virus. It is only the pin that burst a bubble that was already there, and if no virus would have happened, something else would have burst it. Austrians see the depression as a necessary correction, and the bubble as a problem. I actually sat down for a few hours to calculate what would have happened if this pandemic happened in the 50s, and no one could work (especially true…

We are de facto not in a bubble. Market growth over the last decade has been steady and healthy. A long term bull market does not define a bubble.

The Fed artificially lowered the interbank rate to zero percent for ~7 years after 2008, bought other treasuries across the yield curve, and bought trillions in mortgage backed securities. This created an environment that disincentivized saving and encouraged borrowing for both individuals and businesses alike. The market growth over the past 10 years was completely fueled by this artificially cheap credit. The economy was already extremely fragile before the coronavirus hit due to how over leveraged everyone was.

Re: Ask HN: What are you reading to make sense of the economy?

#107

Post by dangus »

oDot wrote: post #39
rjtavares wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also, I fail to see how an economic theory can predict a depression caused by a pandemic...

This crisis was not caused by the Corona virus. It is only the pin that burst a bubble that was already there, and if no virus would have happened, something else would have burst it. Austrians see the depression as a necessary correction, and the bubble as a problem. I actually sat down for a few hours to calculate what would have happened if this pandemic happened in the 50s, and no one could work (especially true…

There’s no way we can assume that the coronavirus was a pin to a bubble.

Look at the unemployment claims chart. This has never happened before in the entire 20th century. That’s not a pin. That’s a collapse in employment.

It doesn’t really matter whether or not people have savings.

Economic recessions don’t mean “people don’t have their savings anymore.” They’re a reduction in economic activity. That doesn’t have to happen because people are literally out of money, it can happen because people are unwilling to spend as much as they used to.

Take the best-off person right now as an example. They still have a job, working from home. They have 6-12 months of emergency fund. Despite all this, are they going to buy anything but essentials right now? Plus, in many cases, they don’t have a choice. They’re not allowed to pay for their gym membership. They’re not allowed to take dance classes. They’re not allowed to go on vacation.

They’re sitting at home buying groceries and nothing else just like the person with no savings.

Re: Ask HN: What are you reading to make sense of the economy?

#109

Post by AndyMcConachie »

First, the usual disclaimers about 'do your own research' and all that. Also, people come into econ for different reasons, have different focuses, and expect different things from their news. Some people read news about the economy because they have specific decision making responsibilty, and some people read it because they're just curious. I'm somewhere in the middle depending on what is specifically being talked about.

Here are some random links that I check from time to time when I have the time.

https://wallstreetonparade.com/

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/

https://mattstoller.substack.com/

And then many mainstream ones like newspaper sites and the like.

Re: Ask HN: What are you reading to make sense of the economy?

#110

Post by hn_throwaway_99 »

aqqTwxye wrote: post #90
DanielBMarkham wrote: post #57

Making sense in what fashion, to what end? Investment opportunities? Proposed public policy changes? Where to look for a job? To a large degree the economy is unknowable. That's why you can get two economists in a room and receive seven opinions. Don't get me wrong; there's good value there. It's just that economics is an odd mix of philosophy and math. On my more cranky days I call it astrology for people who know c…

Economists do not claim to know the economy, much less to the point of becoming rich. They are far more likely to insist that nobody can know such thing. You must be thinking of somebody else.

Hardly. Economists may believe in the idea, for example, that you can't time the market, but I have yet to meet an economist who doesn't have very strong ideas about the types of policies or interventions that are good for bad for the economy, and again it often feels like you get 10 economists in a room and you get 10 different diverging opinions.
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