This crisis will be very large and also very drawn out because of all the debt and other economic overhang. The thing to focus on the most, though, is that there will be recovery and with that great opportunities for buying stocks and lows and expanding into markets as they regrow.
Ask HN: How bad will the 2020 economic crisis be?
101–110 of 174 posts
Re: Ask HN: How bad will the 2020 economic crisis be?
#102What I want to know: With all this god damn quarantine and stay at home, what's to prevent one sick person to go out after the all clear and just reinfect everybody. This stay at home situation is not sustainable. Is this an economic war from China?
Re: Ask HN: How bad will the 2020 economic crisis be?
#103If I was running a company of any size and revenue dived by 20x I would probably consider emergency measures. Skeleton crew of only the most essential employees, unpaid leave for the rest (that will accept it) and underline that these are temporary measures to keep the company alive.
Some will inevitably look for and find other work, but if the whole company goes under everyone will be in the same boat. I'd say this is not going away in the near term and if you're not acting like it's a crisis now you may be unprepared for a sustained or even worse drop in revenue.
Just my five cents, obviously noone can predict this with any certainty.
Re: Ask HN: How bad will the 2020 economic crisis be?
#104Earlier quoted context omitted.
Either this thing is "The End of the World As We Know It", or it is not. Give it another week or so.
This advice does not work. I have been "giving it another week" for 3 weeks now, trying to figure out which direction it is going to go.
It's unknown at the moment, but I doubt the bad guys win.
Pessimism isn't my style.
Re: Ask HN: How bad will the 2020 economic crisis be?
#105I'm not well versed in economy and I have a maybe dumb question: how would large public infrastructure projects financed by the government in the post-crisis period help with keeping people employed and help the economy spring back? Edit: are there historical examples relevant?
Re: Ask HN: How bad will the 2020 economic crisis be?
#106Earlier quoted context omitted.
During the Great Recession my employer at the time laid off a large percentage of our staff that they had wanted to layoff for a long time. Due to the nature of their industry, the appearance of stability was very important so they never did layoffs before. Any accumulated excess workforce had to be reduced through attrition or gross misconduct excessive enough for warrant being fired for cause. During the recession…
I also wonder whether this obscured and now accelerated "structural unemployment" - combined with a greater acceptance of remote work - will further shift domestic jobs overseas.
I actually wonder if the pandemic will discourage globalization. The NYT Podcast last week had a great segment on pandemic’s negative effects on globalization, specifically, the global supply chain. It postulates that the longer the supply chain is negatively impacted, the more likely corporations will try to localize.
That being said, 60+ days of lockdown, and Wuhan is only now starting to consider easing restrictions. Other countries’ responses have been half measured compared to China, so we might have a longer period social distancing. CDC estimates will need the current measures through July. Other articles I read say we’ll need on-again off-again social distancing for the next 15 months as the virus surges and wanes.
Re: Ask HN: How bad will the 2020 economic crisis be?
#107Chance of 1929-style Economic Depression: ~60% (Recession chance: >95%) Make sure you have the cash to live properly and satisfy urgent needs if necessary over the next 6-12 months or longer. Only invest the remaining in highly-rated bonds or great stocks with long-term resilience. The world is facing a liquidity crisis, along with both demand & supply shocks that can’t be easily fixed by governments. We are in a war…
You've called it a war, which is just an analogy, but aren't actual wars sometimes good for the economy in certain ways, like generating economic activity? Is there a chance that could apply here? Though maybe the work of fighting a medical war is more narrow and specialized than the work of fighting a literal war. For example, you cannot institute of draft and make people into doctors in time to fight this. Whereas…
Problem is that in war, you can still go outside in your home country and do work.
Re: Ask HN: How bad will the 2020 economic crisis be?
#108Earlier quoted context omitted.
This advice does not work. I have been "giving it another week" for 3 weeks now, trying to figure out which direction it is going to go.
It's unknown at the moment, but I doubt the bad guys win. Pessimism isn't my style.
Who's the bad guy? Viruses don't have intentions
Re: Ask HN: How bad will the 2020 economic crisis be?
#109Just focus on the strength and depth of the government responses, most especially the establishment of martial law. No sector is actually an island because the economy is an abstract concept used to describe certain types of interactions that impact resources. It isn't like you can just turn the A/C in a car off to make the gas last a little longer because it isn't a singular, engineered thing with clear systems. It is a system more complicated than anyone understands.
Re: Ask HN: How bad will the 2020 economic crisis be?
#110It’s probably going to be worse than the Great Depression.
Yes, brother works as corporate lawyer. Their office is overflowing with bankruptcy cases...including the very law firm he works for. Something thats flown under the radar of this is the new “Families First Coronavirus Response Act” which provides 12 weeks of “paid leave for those affected by Covid 19”. Most (90%) companies will be bankrupt by week 3 or 4, therefore most are now contemplating just declaring bankruptc…
> Their office is overflowing with bankruptcy cases...including the very law firm he works for.
I don't understand this. Why would they file for bankruptcy if their office is overflowing with cases?