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Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

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Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#101

Post by simonh »

smacktoward wrote: post #15
aqme28 wrote: post #9

I thought this interview was illuminating for post-lockdown life in China https://twitter.com/MikeIsaac/status/1238604080571772928?s=2... It shows just how far behind we are. TLDW: Temperature checks everywhere. Fever clinics optimized for quarantining the potentially infected. China is trying to actually contain the virus. The only way out for us unless we significantly ramp up testing and lockdown is to admit defea…

> The only way out for us unless we significantly ramp up testing and lockdown is to admit defeat and simply optimize for slowing down the onslaught. This has already happened. “Flatten the curve” takes it as written that most people will be exposed to the virus, and thus aims instead to just spread those exposures over a long enough period to avoid overwhelming the health care system.

The UK government is revising its plan. A new simulation estimates that if we allow enough transmission to achieve herd immunity, it would cost about 260,000 lives. That’s not acceptable and would massively overwhelm health services. So it looks like we’re going to go for a strict lockdown strategy, but the problem with that is without a vaccine there’s no way out. If you relax the lockdown, you just get another outbreak. The best you can do is dynamic lockdowns per city or region.

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#103

Post by Misdicorl »

Engineering-MD wrote: post #80
phkahler wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If it's drawn out slow enough, the spread should nearly stop without lockdown once 20-25 percent of the population has recovered. Assuming prior infection offers immunity of course.

Why do you get 25%? I thought it largely depended on the R0 value

Assuming immunity in the recovered population, R0(25% immune) = 0.75R0(~0% immune)

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#104

Post by hfufigivknog »

jredwards wrote: post #4

I anticipate that sooner or later the economic costs of staying on lockdown will overwhelm the benefits. We will probably begin to loosen restrictions and we will probably see periodic outbreaks in various places. I don't know if that simply continues until a vaccine is viable or some other factor intervenes. But this new reality won't be short-lived.

No actually it will be. It will be gone from the planet more or less within months. Corona viruses don’t mutate in a way that invalidates immunity gained from exposure to its ancestors. The flu does that but corona viruses do not. And there is no evidence that this one is an exception. Herd immunity will be achieved and it will stop spreading.

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#105

Post by ztjio »

hfufigivknog wrote: post #102

The virus isn’t serious enough to warrant or motivate total quarantine so a ton of people are going to get it. Then we’ll have collective immunity and things will go back to normal. 3 to 6 months from now.

It's not that simple. First of all, most people do not develop permanent immunity to the cold which is usually one of the first 4 known human transmissible corona viruses. So there is no reason to think we'll develop long term immunity to this one either.

Second, our reaction has be abysmal which, similar to the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic, massively increases the chance of a second or even third wave of massive infection spread. That will be on many peoples's minds.

And one more thing I want to touch on so people here can get it through their thick heads: just because the death rate is supposedly "low" and "only" impacts old people mostly, that doesn't mean it doesn't impact YOU. If YOU have an emergency and the hospital is packed with COVID-19 patients, it doesn't really matter what you have, you are affected.

Even ignoring the ethical implications of just letting people die from this, I think most people who would do that are unlikely to ignore implications to themselves so figure out where you land or not, it doesn't matter, the goal of keeping hospitals from being overloaded affects everyone.

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#106

Post by dhosek »

adventured wrote: post #98
dhosek wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's summer in Australia and South Africa. They're still seeing spread. I wouldn't count on that.

Is there any information on how many of the ~377 Australian cases originated outside versus inside their borders? I can't find much on that figure. South Africa only has 62 cases and New Zealand only has 8 cases. Not much there yet.

I haven't seen any statistics, but it appears that Rita Wilson and her husband contracted it in Australia from what I've read. That was the more worrying thing to me about that news than the celebrity connection.

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#107

Post by naushniki »

adaisadais wrote: post #75

I remember all of the statistical problems centered around virality that we would have to do in college. The problems always seemed so make-believe and dystopian. Now my company is close to going out of business and I have just been laid off. Partly due to high-ranking officials not believing in the virality of nCov-19. I can't get W.B. Yeats "The Second Coming" from 1919 out of my head: "Turning and turning in the w…

Thank you for quoting poetry in a context. And good luck with employment!

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#108

Post by hfufigivknog »

ztjio wrote: post #105
hfufigivknog wrote: post #102

The virus isn’t serious enough to warrant or motivate total quarantine so a ton of people are going to get it. Then we’ll have collective immunity and things will go back to normal. 3 to 6 months from now.

It's not that simple. First of all, most people do not develop permanent immunity to the cold which is usually one of the first 4 known human transmissible corona viruses. So there is no reason to think we'll develop long term immunity to this one either. Second, our reaction has be abysmal which, similar to the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic, massively increases the chance of a second or even third wave of massive infect…

Corona viruses are not “the cold.” Rhinovirus causes the common cold and corona viruses cause 10% of cold cases. Just like other corona viruses, they make a recurring appearance. But this is not because they mutate in the way the flu does. No corona viruses mutate in the way that the flu does. If you have some evidence to prove me wrong then produce it.

You definitely develop immunity to viruses that sicken you. For the average person who is healthy.

If there is a second wave it will only be because of overly aggressive quarantining. This is why I said it won’t happen. For it to work, it would have to be air tight. All these young kids staying home are just saving fuel for a second wave. Old people ought to stay home and let younger people gain herd immunity as quickly as possible.

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#109

Post by kordlessagain »

Bombthecat wrote: post #65
aqme28 wrote: post #9

I thought this interview was illuminating for post-lockdown life in China https://twitter.com/MikeIsaac/status/1238604080571772928?s=2... It shows just how far behind we are. TLDW: Temperature checks everywhere. Fever clinics optimized for quarantining the potentially infected. China is trying to actually contain the virus. The only way out for us unless we significantly ramp up testing and lockdown is to admit defea…

So, the uk approach? Let god sort them out?

Sorry, I have to go get tea.

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#110

Post by craftyguy »

aqme28 wrote: post #9

I thought this interview was illuminating for post-lockdown life in China https://twitter.com/MikeIsaac/status/1238604080571772928?s=2... It shows just how far behind we are. TLDW: Temperature checks everywhere. Fever clinics optimized for quarantining the potentially infected. China is trying to actually contain the virus. The only way out for us unless we significantly ramp up testing and lockdown is to admit defea…

> admit defeat and simply optimize for slowing down the onslaught.

Oh please. Based on what we know, it's much more likely to not be an 'onslaught.' But hey, if we want to wreck the economy and drive mass hysteria for something that is super not fatal for the vast majority of people, then let's go!

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