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Ask HN: How do you manage your financials?

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Re: Ask HN: How do you manage your financials?

#101

I've recorded the date and amount of every contribution to my retirement savings. From that I'm able to calculate my all-time APY, and inflation-adjusted APY. I used Banktivity for personal finances. I make sure everything is categorized. Finally, I have a spreadsheet that calculates our monthly expenses (which I get from Banktivity) and knows the amount of retirement savings. From those - our all-time APY, our savin…

BTW, I'm not sure why more people don't do this, honestly. Savings amount, investment return, and expenses-per-time-period are the three absolute requirements you need to be able to project if you can successfully retire without going into debt. Beyond that it's about being accurate, and for that you have to measure. You can't just say "oh I'll probably make 7%", or "Oh, a million bucks should be enough."

Re: Ask HN: How do you manage your financials?

#102
post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It depends on the time-frame you plan to invest. If it's a short time frame, investing in individual stocks can be OK. There's just so many variables that go into the price that something that causes the stock to go up/down 20% can be completely unforeseen. A broad market index won't have these weird fluctuations. Almost every single market strategy underperforms broad market indices in the long run. Even hedge funds…

The issue I have with your statement is not that you're guaranteed in any way to beat the market, but saying that investing in individual stocks is gambling. It just isn't true. Again, if you have no more than 5% of your portfolio in an individual stock then a 20% drawdown on that one stock is not going to significantly hurt you. People should feel free to decide for themselves if they want to spend the time to activ…

> As someone in tech, I've done quite well investing in high quality tech companies like Apple, Netflix, Amazon, and Nvidia over the years.

I feel like I have a number of coworkers who make investments like this, that haven't really been burnt on this because of the bull market. And because they know tech better than most, that's what they focus on, and it becomes a huge sector risk, even though no more than 5 percent is invested in any particular symbol. If five years from now we learn that someone in big tech has been cooking the books (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MCI_Inc.#Accounting_scandals) that could lead to a sector wide dip for a variety of reasons, far worse than a 5 percent drop.

What it comes down to for individual investors is that diversification is at odds with well researched investing. You just don't have the time to pour over 100 quarterly 10-Qs, build sales forecasts, or predict next year's return on the 10y treasury bond. It can be a fascinating hobby, and while I have a small trading account with the IEM, all my real money goes into VOO/AGG.

Re: Ask HN: How do you manage your financials?

#103
I have used Personal Capital to pull in all the transactions and classify them into expenditure groups (entertainment, meals, utilities, etc.). Once you do it for a month or two, it pretty much knows what everything is (and knows a lot by default already). Then you can see where all your money is going and determine if you are spending too much in any one area like meals or something else that's discretionary and make changes. If you have your bank accounts hooked up along with your credit and retirement accounts you can also see your monthly cash flow as well as your net worth. You can also add your mortgage data to pull automatically like any other account. Also can log anything else that doesn't have an account which it can connect to and you can update manually to get the full picture.

For investments I'm restricted at work for compliance/legal reasons so I'm limited to ETFs and similar products (no individual securities). I've heard great things about Robinhood and would probably just use them or another no-commission broker (there are a bunch now). The easiest way to get good returns is just use index fund products. They have low fees usually and aren't that risky. You don't way outperform the market unless you really just get lucky, but it's very simple and easy to do. Full disclosure - I work in this area of financial services, but it really is a far cheaper option than just about anything else. Unless you have a stellar financial adviser (top 15%), they aren't usually going to be able to justify their fees over the long haul.

I pay my credit card multiple times a week so that I never pay interest and never get tempted to do anything foolish. Every day on the way to work I log on and pay whatever has posted that morning. My card has 2% cash back on everything, no limits (Citi DoubleCash), so it's very simple and straightforward.

I contribute enough to max out the legal 401k contributions allowed by law. If you can afford that, you should definitely do it. At the very least, get the employer match if you have one.

I have free accounts with Credit.com and Credit Karma. Log in periodically when they update to see where it has moved and why. They give recommendations - sometimes they are silly or not-realistic. But at least you can see what's going on and monitor for free.

Your credit card also probably has an identity protection tool - highly recommend this as it is part of good personal finance. Register all your known accounts, IDs, etc. so that you can get alerts if that data is being traded on the black market.

As far as additional savings, it's a roller coaster because every time I up the checking account over a series of months some large expenditure is needed (home repair/improvement, car, medical, something). But I try to mentally have a bottom in my head that I don't want to see the account go under and if it does, I try to cut back on extraneous things until it goes up by a fair amount. Over time, I raise that bottom. That allows for some growth in additional savings without having to be micromanaging a budget.

I always buy used, cheap cars. Neither my wife or I are car people. We don't care. Just an A to B type of thing. Highly recommend that. Pay X up front out of pocket every 5-10 years and then only around $1,200 a year in maintenance. Far cheaper in the long run.

Re: Ask HN: How do you manage your financials?

#104
post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The issue I have with your statement is not that you're guaranteed in any way to beat the market, but saying that investing in individual stocks is gambling. It just isn't true. Again, if you have no more than 5% of your portfolio in an individual stock then a 20% drawdown on that one stock is not going to significantly hurt you. People should feel free to decide for themselves if they want to spend the time to activ…

> As someone in tech, I've done quite well investing in high quality tech companies like Apple, Netflix, Amazon, and Nvidia over the years. I feel like I have a number of coworkers who make investments like this, that haven't really been burnt on this because of the bull market. And because they know tech better than most, that's what they focus on, and it becomes a huge sector risk, even though no more than 5 percen…

I don’t take investing so seriously like pouring over financial statements outside of skimming through earnings reports. I don’t live everyday worrying Tim Cook is committing massive accounting fraud. I invest in companies I understand, use/like, and reasonably trust, and it’s worked out well for me. There may come a time the whole market crashes again, but my gains are far above the index fund over the last 10 years, and if I need to derisk I will make that decision at a later time.

Again, I just thinking screaming “anything except index funds is stupid gambling and irresponsible” is untrue. I also think those who become truly wealthy in life necessarily have to do things that the average person is unwilling to do, like invest understanding there’s a risk involved.

Re: Ask HN: How do you manage your financials?

#105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It depends on which index. The Dow Jones is an exceeding poor index and a good actively managed fund will out perform it easily. The Dow does not take into account market cap or float, and when a security comes off of it at $5 a share and a new one goes in at $105 per share, then the index jumps $100 in value. The S&P is better, but managed funds are usually better.

Interesting that you claim that, since I usually only hear the contrary (actively managed funds don't perform better and the fees are too high). Does anyone have specific data on this? Does anyone

I work in this industry. We have detailed reports on damn near everything, including private hedge funds and how they perform. 80-85% of any active management or financial advisory services have not beat low cost index investing over the long haul. The top 15% or so can and do, but the vast majority of the active investments players (that 80% or so) don't make enough to beat passive investment once their fees are taken into account and an appropriate passive benchmark is used. Meaning, if they are actively investing for their client using only US securities and products, we use a major US benchmark to compare against. If they are global, Asia-Pac, Dev/emg, etc. we use one of those to compare against so we are looking at apples to apples. A lot of times they will simply invest in a high growth emerging market and tell their clients that they are beating the S&P 500. Yeah, of course you are. But you aren't beating the relevant emerging markets growth products.

Re: Ask HN: How do you manage your financials?

#106

There's two kinds of spending: 1) Assets - these make money and make you richer 2) Liabilities - these cost money and make you poorer I spent at least 60% or more on Assets. And keep liability spening to an absolute minimum: - almost never ever buy new clothes - xmas gifts - we don't play this game. we spend time with each other and make our own gifts, or buy them super cheap at yard library book sales, etc. - always…

I feel like some of this begins to cross the line from frugal to cheap. Hunting down a neighbor with a rosemary bush (aside from not actually providing the prepared leaves of camellia sinensis) instead of spending a few bucks on a box of tea seems absurd--it assumes your time and effort have no value at all. By all means, don't waste money. But before even that, don't waste your time. You can always earn more money,…

every dollar you earn is time wasted. paying for that 5$ rosemary at the store will cost will cost you 10 minutes of work time, if you earn 30$/hr after taxes ~ 90K/year.

And, I think 10 minutes spent getting to know the neighbors or hanging out with family to pick their rosemary bush is a much better use of time than yet another 10m working.

Re: Ask HN: How do you manage your financials?

#107

I've recorded the date and amount of every contribution to my retirement savings. From that I'm able to calculate my all-time APY, and inflation-adjusted APY. I used Banktivity for personal finances. I make sure everything is categorized. Finally, I have a spreadsheet that calculates our monthly expenses (which I get from Banktivity) and knows the amount of retirement savings. From those - our all-time APY, our savin…

I'm surprised to not see more Banktivity users. It's like Quicken with the option to do envelope budgeting. Unlike Quicken there is not a required yearly subscription fee, unless you want it to directly download your transactions from your bank. I prefer not to do that.

It does so much and the customizable reports and amount of info it gives you at a glance includes some things I don't see in other apps. Examples are savings rate (not present in any other app I've seen) and a calendar view of your finances (which is in a few apps, but not many)

Re: Ask HN: How do you manage your financials?

#108

I've recorded the date and amount of every contribution to my retirement savings. From that I'm able to calculate my all-time APY, and inflation-adjusted APY. I used Banktivity for personal finances. I make sure everything is categorized. Finally, I have a spreadsheet that calculates our monthly expenses (which I get from Banktivity) and knows the amount of retirement savings. From those - our all-time APY, our savin…

I'm surprised to not see more Banktivity users. It's like Quicken with the option to do envelope budgeting. Unlike Quicken there is not a required yearly subscription fee, unless you want it to directly download your transactions from your bank. I prefer not to do that. It does so much and the customizable reports and amount of info it gives you at a glance includes some things I don't see in other apps. Examples are…

I've ended up applying YNAB's 4 rules and way of managing money to Banktivity and it's working out fantastic for me.

Re: Ask HN: How do you manage your financials?

#109
post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> As someone in tech, I've done quite well investing in high quality tech companies like Apple, Netflix, Amazon, and Nvidia over the years. I feel like I have a number of coworkers who make investments like this, that haven't really been burnt on this because of the bull market. And because they know tech better than most, that's what they focus on, and it becomes a huge sector risk, even though no more than 5 percen…

I don’t take investing so seriously like pouring over financial statements outside of skimming through earnings reports. I don’t live everyday worrying Tim Cook is committing massive accounting fraud. I invest in companies I understand, use/like, and reasonably trust, and it’s worked out well for me. There may come a time the whole market crashes again, but my gains are far above the index fund over the last 10 years…

> I don’t take investing so seriously

Then how do you know you aren't over paying for stocks? Your plan is to buy high and sell higher?

> it’s worked out well for me

My unvested RSUs have more than doubled in value over the past year, and ESPP has done just as well lately. The market has worked out great for everyone, especially those of us in high tech.

> if I need to derisk I will make that decision at a later time.

To me this reads as 'I will sell when the market drops hard enough to make me anxious.' A ton of institutional investors (think pension funds and university endowments) did exactly that, and it made them worse off in the long run. David Swensen calls that institutional strategy out as 'buy high and sell low.' IMO, buying into a down market is the real step the average person is unwilling to do, even though it's incredibly easy implement: sell off your winners and buy more of your losers.

If you have something more complicated in mind, I just am not ready to believe someone unwilling to bother calculating the present value of forecasted future earnings is bothering with looking at their Sharpe ratio and deciding 'welp, time to buy some VIX to offset this risk.'

> Again, I just thinking screaming “anything except index funds is stupid gambling and irresponsible” is untrue.

Even if you don't accept the premise (I don't[1]), doesn't mean active investors are a priori smart. I have yet to speak with anyone upset by the index investing philosophy I consider prepared.

[1]: There are clearly people who make a living doing this who dig far beyond financial statements. Random example I know of from a lecture given at Yale by a trader (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DMbhgSBIUfk&t=3875s if you can stomach the umms and ahs) reading Bond contracts ("indentures") and looking for companies that were likely to delay financial statements and owed bondholders par immediately. One such notable source of delayed financials was backdated options, and this exact accounting irregularities even affected the tech giant you mentioned, back in 2007. You may recall another facet of this story from HN favorite 'Why I did not go to jail' (https://a16z.com/2014/02/06/why-i-did-not-go-to-jail/) as this was widely practiced at the time.

Re: Ask HN: How do you manage your financials?

#110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Investing in an index fund consistently gives returns of about 5-10% a year. This turns out to be a LOT of money in the long run (1.1 ^ 30 = 20x). Trying to time the market is a bad idea. Picking individual stocks is a bad idea. This is assuming your main goal is returns on your investment. Picking individual stocks or even 30 stocks is basically gambling. Really recommend reading "A Random Walk Down Wall Street": ht…

It depends on which index. The Dow Jones is an exceeding poor index and a good actively managed fund will out perform it easily. The Dow does not take into account market cap or float, and when a security comes off of it at $5 a share and a new one goes in at $105 per share, then the index jumps $100 in value. The S&P is better, but managed funds are usually better.

While it's true the Dow doesn't take into account market cap because it is a price weighted index, it is not true that removing a $5 security and adding a $105 one jumps the index $100 in value.

Every index has a divisor, which acts to preserve the return. The general calculation for an index level is Level=MCAP/Divisor. With the Dow, the MCAP is simply the sum of the prices instead of the sum of all MCAPS for the individual securities. When you drop one security and add another, the divisor is calculated such that it offsets the change in MCAP. In this way, when the index opens the next day it opens at the exact same level as the previous close and then the real time feeds kick in and update based on the gap up/down of each security in the Dow. The same basic logic applies to all top level indices. The calc changes for gross/net returns, currency variants, hedge calcs, etc. But the same principal applies that there must be a way to preserve the day over day return so that adding and removing securities doesn't throw off the actual index levels and returns.

Your 401k and other investment accounts that report performance do the same thing behind the scenes - particularly 401k. With a 401k you are consistently adding money to your investment pool and placing small trades to obtain more shares of a pool of securities. This influx of money doesn't artificially inflate your personal return for the year because the way the calculation is done is very similar under the hood to how an index is calculated.

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