Ask HN: Developers, how do you estimate projects and write proposals?

Post by mozz100 » Tue, Nov 13, 2018, 10:04 PM UTC

jek0 wrote: post #100

thomasmarcelis wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I like the idea and could see myself using this. After trying the tool a bit, I liked it and had some thoughts. I think your landing page communicates well, it was pretty clear what it was going to do. The only thing I wasn't sure about is if the tool is also meant for teams larger than one. Then I would need to be able to enter different costs based on different roles, but I'm not sure if that's the target audience.…

Adding to the list of ideas: * A flat probability distribution for "will take between X and Y" is probably wrong, a bell curve would be more accurate (where X and Y are the 95% percentile). Another question: is it open-source? I'm sure a few people around here would be glad to hack into the code ;-)

Post by mozz100 » Tue, Nov 13, 2018, 10:07 PM UTC

markhalonen wrote: post #83

mozz100 wrote: post #13

(about estimating - I don't tend to write proposals) You could have a look at https://www.estigator.com (NB it's a half-finished side project right now) I'm no longer a contractor, although I have been, and I'm frequently asked by my new employers to provide estimates for dev tasks. Trouble is, businesses/clients tend to see an estimate as a promise, or a target. From the developer's point of view it is hard to do an…

I wrote a similar tool to estigator! It's bare-basic, but aims to solve the same problem: https://uncertain.io/

Post by mozz100 » Tue, Nov 13, 2018, 10:13 PM UTC

Etheryte wrote: post #80

mozz100 wrote: post #13

(about estimating - I don't tend to write proposals) You could have a look at https://www.estigator.com (NB it's a half-finished side project right now) I'm no longer a contractor, although I have been, and I'm frequently asked by my new employers to provide estimates for dev tasks. Trouble is, businesses/clients tend to see an estimate as a promise, or a target. From the developer's point of view it is hard to do an…

The concept behind this is great, especially since this very closely matches how I usually estimate things — lower bound and highest expected bound, currently the user experience is pretty meh since you need to add a line and remove two lines to get additional "between N & M units" lines, but I can totally see myself using it once it matures. Would also recommend to others once it matures. Do you have a newsletter or…

Post by theriddlr » Thu, Nov 15, 2018, 1:19 PM UTC

sirwitti wrote: post #45

In my experience estimates are off more often than not (or I'm really bad at this). What I do is this: - Split the project up in phases and split each phase into work chunks - Conservatively estimate the time each chunk will take - Estimate and add all project overhead (project management, meetings,...) - Add time/budget for all known unknowns (design iterations, testing, bugfixes, deployment,...) - Multiply the sum…

Post by ThirdFoundation » Mon, Nov 26, 2018, 9:57 PM UTC

mozz100 wrote: post #102

ThirdFoundation wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just a heads up, I think there's an error in the description next to the graph estimating work time. I'm seeing this message: >>> Total is expected to be about 22.3 days. >>> * likely to be greater than 15 days (p = 95%) >>> * has a 50% chance of exceeding 20 days >>> * unlikely to be less than 33 days (p = 95%) Is the last bullet point correct? Shouldn't it be __likely__ to be less than 33 days?

Thanks again for this. Now fixed.