If before LLMs it took 20 years to build something, with LLMs it might still take 2-5 years, and they've been around of only 5 years. So, you're asking this too early.
Ask HN: Where are all the disruptive software that AI promised?
11–20 of 29 posts
Re: Ask HN: Where are all the disruptive software that AI promised?
#12Well, in software development is does increase the velocity 10x.
Code monkeys who spent 90%+ of their day typing code are probably 10x faster today because of AI.
I'm not convinced most software developers ever spent the majority of their time coding though... A huge part of the job is taking messy user requirements and converting them into technical requirements, and perhaps you could let AI do that for a while but after some time it will blow up in your face if you don't have any opinion on the technical requirements. Software developers also spend a lot of their time thinking about how to architect solutions, considering different technologies and libraries to use, thinking about how to model data, etc...
If I were to guess before AI I suspect the average software developer spent 50% of their day typing code into an editor, so even if AI made this 10-20x faster, that still wouldn't be a 2x in output unless they're also faster at the other parts of the job too... And maybe they are a bit... So maybe the average developer is 2x, or even 3x more productive today with AI. But 10x is so absurd that unless you were a junior developer building Wordpress themes or something I have no idea how you could be working at anywhere remotely close to 10x velocity you were previously.
I mean spent 4 or my 8 work hours in meetings on a single day last week, that time certainly didn't go 10x faster because of AI... Is my career as a SWE some extreme outlier, or do other people also have meetings and do other things in their day that doesn't involving producing code?
Re: Ask HN: Where are all the disruptive software that AI promised?
#13[flagged]
Re: Ask HN: Where are all the disruptive software that AI promised?
#14Because AI only drove down the cost of writing code, not the cost of finding Product-Market Fit. Sure, you can spin up another Notion or Jira clone over the weekend using Cursor or Claude Code now. But getting users to actually migrate their data, change their workflow habits, and pay for it is just as brutally hard as it was a decade ago. Code is just a cheap commodity now, while distribution and trust have become exponentially more expensive
Re: Ask HN: Where are all the disruptive software that AI promised?
#15> if AI is such a game changing platform Again, you need to question the premise. Perhaps all the sales and hype you heard simply wasn't true? In reality, many organizations have already implemented the AI-based improvements to their systems that they need. That work is done, people are enjoying it. The AI vendors want to take it farther. Some coders want to take it farther. Some leaders are pushing it due to FOMO. B…
Makes total sense. Consumer UX relies on pure determinism. When I click "Save", I know exactly what's going to happen. When I type a prompt into an "AI agent", I'm basically playing roulette every single time. Until we figure out how to wrap these probabilistic models inside rigid, predictable UX patterns, the mainstream crowd is going to keep treating AI like an annoying toy instead of an actual tool
Re: Ask HN: Where are all the disruptive software that AI promised?
#16[flagged]
Re: Ask HN: Where are all the disruptive software that AI promised?
#17Because AI only drove down the cost of writing code, not the cost of finding Product-Market Fit. Sure, you can spin up another Notion or Jira clone over the weekend using Cursor or Claude Code now. But getting users to actually migrate their data, change their workflow habits, and pay for it is just as brutally hard as it was a decade ago. Code is just a cheap commodity now, while distribution and trust have become e…
I don’t think that code is that cheap either. Can we vibe code a new Notion? I doubt it. We probably can come up with a decent simulation, but I don’t think we can vibe code a Notion/Confluence/Slack that can handle millions of users in a performant way
Re: Ask HN: Where are all the disruptive software that AI promised?
#18No, you're not! It's only a matter of attention. Today all eyes are on the LLM itself, but the big change is happening underground. I'm not a developer — I'm just a curious arborist who owns a company that prunes trees in Italy. In 4 months we have totally changed our company with the help of AI. AI, LLMs are just tools. It's the use that changes the output!
Suspicious emdash, new account, gushingly positive about AI.
Weird.
Re: Ask HN: Where are all the disruptive software that AI promised?
#19Because AI only drove down the cost of writing code, not the cost of finding Product-Market Fit. Sure, you can spin up another Notion or Jira clone over the weekend using Cursor or Claude Code now. But getting users to actually migrate their data, change their workflow habits, and pay for it is just as brutally hard as it was a decade ago. Code is just a cheap commodity now, while distribution and trust have become e…
For me another Notion or Jira is not "disruptive software" I would expect disruptive software to be so... well, disruptive, as to fit a completely new niche or be so overwhelmingly better than their competitors that it doesn't even need good marketing.
Re: Ask HN: Where are all the disruptive software that AI promised?
#20AI translation is the answer to your question. It is a big of a deal as the invention of the telephone.