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Ask HN: Is America in Recession?
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Re: Ask HN: Is America in Recession?
#12Not sure about the US, but IT industry in Canada definitely is in a recession. When good graduates from Waterloo CS cannot find an entry level job, you know something is wrong.
Re: Ask HN: Is America in Recession?
#13America is in a 4 income economy - the number of typical incomes needed to reliably meet basic bills (rent,transpo,food,utils) in most markets. I've lived thru 8 recessions, none had achieved this level of difficulty. None had so completely barred new entrants to society.
Most people now forget that 50+ years ago, the husband was the sole bread winner, kept his job for most of his life, and could afford the house, car, 4 children and a few pets. I read somewhere that when women started working in the war efforts, businesses took advantage and skewed home prices and whatnot to make it so women had no choice but to continue working. This worked out well, because women wanted to work and…
“ the husband was the sole bread winner, kept his job for most of his life, and could afford the house, car, 4 children and a few pets.”
We don’t _forget_ this. We refute it. It’s not true. It’s a dream that real estate developers _sold_ that wasn’t real.
In 1975 the women’s labor participation rate stood right around 50% its around 55% now [0].
In 1975 the US home ownership rate was 65%, its 65% now [1].
There were more families with no cars in the 70s than now. 1 and 2 car families were about the same rate (with more 2 car families now) but the big difference is how many more families have more than 2 cars now than then [2].
More stats for you: - food as a percentage of family budget is lower now than then (and the only reason its close is that we eat out way more now)[3] - houses are bigger now than then[4] - data on employee tenure doesn’t go back that far, but the data we do have to the 80s shows employee tenure hasn’t changed [5]
There are lots of interesting economic challenges now, but _generally_ more people now are living better lives than then past economically. Anyone that sells you some story about some glorious past is lying to you for some reason.
Home ownership rates are always the tell. The US had very stable home ownership rates in the 45% range until the New Deal efforts that started subsidizing like crazy home ownership. They rose in the post war era until about 1960 when they reached the mid 60s. They have fluctuated in a tight curve in that band since then. The home ownership rate is tightly correlated to mortgage rates, not generational values, and spikes in 2005 (right before the bubble burst) not in the dim past [6].
[0] https://blog.dol.gov/2023/03/15/working-women-data-from-the-... [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RHORUSQ156N [2] https://www.bts.gov/archive/publications/passenger_travel_20... [3] https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/ag-and-food-statistic... [4] https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/programs-surveys/a... [5] https://www.ebri.org/content/trends-in-employee-tenure-1983-... [6] https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/sites/default/files/research/fi...
Re: Ask HN: Is America in Recession?
#14Re: Ask HN: Is America in Recession?
#15America is in a 4 income economy - the number of typical incomes needed to reliably meet basic bills (rent,transpo,food,utils) in most markets. I've lived thru 8 recessions, none had achieved this level of difficulty. None had so completely barred new entrants to society.
You mean the average number of full time jobs a single person needs to do to survive? or a couple? or a couple with kids?
Four incomes is the number of full-time jobs paying typical (most obtainable) wages. Presumably that would be 4 people.
In my market: In mid 1990s one person could afford basic bills on typical, full-time wages. By 2007 living costs had doubled, most due to housing increases. For the next 12 years, wages and living costs mostly kept parity until 2020.
During 2020, basic bills (mostly housing) rose and a typical wage-earning home required ~3 incomes as rents shot up. By late 2021 we were firmly at 4 incomes while everything shot up, especially housing and insurances.
Re: Ask HN: Is America in Recession?
#16Earlier quoted context omitted.
1968. https://www.visualcapitalist.com/chart-the-declining-value-o...
Was 1968 awesome for everybody?
1968 was most awesome for white males.
My mom managed to keep the family afloat on one income but she was working a higher-income job (w/ wages somewhat lower than the men below her). Winters could be tougher; we ate what we grew during the summer and didn't always have money for furnace fuel.
Re: Ask HN: Is America in Recession?
#17Earlier quoted context omitted.
1968. https://www.visualcapitalist.com/chart-the-declining-value-o...
Was 1968 awesome for everybody?
Peak purchasing power of the minimum wage, per the question about entrance to society. To my knowledge, there is no period where America was “awesome for everybody”, as there is always a material cohort or cohorts America subjugates, exploits, or marginalizes for nation state economic success.
Re: Ask HN: Is America in Recession?
#18Earlier quoted context omitted.
Was 1968 awesome for everybody?
Peak purchasing power of the minimum wage, per the question about entrance to society. To my knowledge, there is no period where America was “awesome for everybody”, as there is always a material cohort or cohorts America subjugates, exploits, or marginalizes for nation state economic success.
I never asked about peak purchasing power of the minimum wage. Not sure why you brought that up tbh.
Re: Ask HN: Is America in Recession?
#19Earlier quoted context omitted.
Peak purchasing power of the minimum wage, per the question about entrance to society. To my knowledge, there is no period where America was “awesome for everybody”, as there is always a material cohort or cohorts America subjugates, exploits, or marginalizes for nation state economic success.
I never asked about peak purchasing power of the minimum wage. Not sure why you brought that up tbh.
“peak for ease of new entrance to society?” was the question you asked. Maximum earning power for anyone (minimum wage) was the answer. The lower your purchasing power, or access to purchasing power, the less ease for entrance to society, economically speaking. This coincides with the tail end of America’s post WW2 economic boom.
Re: Ask HN: Is America in Recession?
#20Earlier quoted context omitted.
I never asked about peak purchasing power of the minimum wage. Not sure why you brought that up tbh.
“peak for ease of new entrance to society?” was the question you asked. Maximum earning power for anyone (minimum wage) was the answer. The lower your purchasing power, or access to purchasing power, the less ease for entrance to society, economically speaking. This coincides with the tail end of America’s post WW2 economic boom.
> Maximum earning power for anyone (minimum wage) was the answer.
I think you meant to say “my answer” not “the answer.”