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Ask HN: What do you expect will be the real impact of AI on society in 10 years

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11–20 of 32 posts

Re: Ask HN: What do you expect will be the real impact of AI on society in 10 years

#11
I think kids will have a hard time learning and being smart with AI chewing everything for them.

I've read a few stories about parents questioning the over-use of AI from their child, adding to that I've seen my fair share of adult who cannot do anything without asking ChatGPT first.

Re: Ask HN: What do you expect will be the real impact of AI on society in 10 years

#12

different view but for that I need to pm/dm you. Any way that is suitable/comfortable to you. I'm not a scammer and I don't have malicious intentions. It's not the same old boring responses which bring more uncertainty. It's obvious but it's not that obvious that you would likely get it from current ai reasoning models.

Now I'm intrigued. Why not post it publicly?

[deleted]

Re: Ask HN: What do you expect will be the real impact of AI on society in 10 years

#13

different view but for that I need to pm/dm you. Any way that is suitable/comfortable to you. I'm not a scammer and I don't have malicious intentions. It's not the same old boring responses which bring more uncertainty. It's obvious but it's not that obvious that you would likely get it from current ai reasoning models.

Now I'm intrigued. Why not post it publicly?

It has shaken up my core beliefs and assumptions.

Reading these have validated some of my points. https://pastebin.com/y1i6KiY1

I don't want to mislead anyone. Neither do I want to cause trouble to myself or to anyone else. Things can be troubling.

I am open to posting it but I would like to discuss it with someone on HN before doing so.

Re: Ask HN: What do you expect will be the real impact of AI on society in 10 years

#14
Students in school even post ChatGPT let alone better “AI” will find their growth limited. They will never learn how to solve complex math or logic problems or how to write.

You will also see long term affects in the industry as the pre-AI generation leaves the market.

It was already hard for entry level developers to break the can’t get a job don’t have experience cycle. It is even harder now.

Before there was always some simple busy work that senior developers didn’t have time to do so you would hire a junior level developer who needed to be told exactly what to do. LLMs are already as competent as a junior developer. Why hire them?

I see the next level of hallowing out to be mid level experienced “ticker takers” who just take well defined business use cases off the board and do the work. For non software companies, a lot of that work has already been outsourced to SaaS offerings where businesses hire a consulting company to do the implementation (various ERPs, EHR/EMR systems, Salesforce, ServiceNow, etc)

Re: Ask HN: What do you expect will be the real impact of AI on society in 10 years

#15

Consolidation of power.

How would that look like? And what would be the societal implications?

The current version of it is that senior engineers - the ones that can talk to stakeholders and manage complexity not “senior” as in “I codez real gud” - are having not too much problem finding jobs that pay well. But non senior “ticket takers” are struggling.

That will get worse when you need fewer non seniors

Re: Ask HN: What do you expect will be the real impact of AI on society in 10 years

#17
post #9

Well the most pressing question is whether it will kill us all. There are good reasons to suspect that; Nick Bostrom's Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies (2014) remains my favorite introduction to this thorny problem, especially the chapter called "Is the Default Outcome Doom?" Whether LLMs are sufficient for artificial superintelligence (ASI) is of course also an open question; I'm actually inclined to sa…

Its not going to kill us all, it's only going to make us all very unhappy.

Re: Ask HN: What do you expect will be the real impact of AI on society in 10 years

#18
post #6

Sam will promise in 2035 that AGI is very close and probably will happen at the end of the year, same as every year (Elon als still promises FSD is close and probably comes out EOY, just that FSD might actually be realistic by then). People use AI a little here and there but nothing much will have changed due to it. Mostly more work for people needing to correct AI mistakes.

I know Sam says AGI is close, but has he ever actually said that it will "probably happen by the end of the year"? I don't follow his pronouncements very closely, but I don't recall noticing him actually going that far.

Re: Ask HN: What do you expect will be the real impact of AI on society in 10 years

#19

Students in school even post ChatGPT let alone better “AI” will find their growth limited. They will never learn how to solve complex math or logic problems or how to write. You will also see long term affects in the industry as the pre-AI generation leaves the market. It was already hard for entry level developers to break the can’t get a job don’t have experience cycle. It is even harder now. Before there was alway…

More generally, a large segment of the population outsources their thinking to ChatGPT. The outcome of that will not be good, especially with the current mismatch between what ChatGPT actually is and what the public think it is. People will put too much trust in it, and it will ruin lives. Even for those it doesn't ruin, outsourcing your thinking is a poor way to get smarter.

Re: Ask HN: What do you expect will be the real impact of AI on society in 10 years

#20
We consider the human brain and thought structure to be close to perfect. In fact, we know that it can be easily deceived or misled. It can make wrong decisions because it is very easy to fall into cognitive errors. We are trying to copy this structure in developing artificial intelligence. That is why it seems very common for it to hallucinate or give wrong answers. When the reasons that cause people to make wrong decisions are eliminated, maybe what artificial intelligence gives in the same way can be much more realistic and accurate. Maybe then we can talk about Artificial General Intelligence. They use it very easily. That is why it does not seem possible to predict in the future whether humans will fix artificial intelligence or artificial intelligence will change our thought structure.
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