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Ask HN: Predictions for when GPT-5 will be released and how safe it will be?

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Re: Ask HN: Predictions for when GPT-5 will be released and how safe it will be?

#11

Post by rthnbgrredf »

thiago_fm wrote: post #8

Training takes a few months, but I bet that they'll do some testing first before releasing it to the public. I also believe that they will delay the release of GPT-5 as much as possible, the reason being that it will be underwhelming (at least in comparison to GPT3.5 hype). Possibly release close to some Google new release timeline (their main competitor). They are the main driver of a bubble that has benefited a lot…

Your opionion is based on the assumption that GPT-5 will be underwhelming. Do we have any hint to why you think so?

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for when GPT-5 will be released and how safe it will be?

#12

Post by ramblerman »

I predict

- a steady increment of GPT-n+1 every 6 months for marketing purposes.

- each will improve on the last by smaller and smaller margins.

- hallucinations won't be fixed anytime soon.

- We will hit a bit of a winter, as the hype was so big but like self driving cars the devil is in the details. The general public realizes these things are just essentially giving us averages.

- A big market will emerge around "authenticity" and "verified texts" as the internet continues to get flooded with AI generated content.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for when GPT-5 will be released and how safe it will be?

#14

Post by sa-code »

ilaksh wrote: post #13

I believe that gpt-4o was really gpt-5, just renamed, and the multimodal stuff they demoed will actually be released within a month.

The gpt-4 branding has made quite a reputation, I will not be surprised if they milk it until it lasts

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for when GPT-5 will be released and how safe it will be?

#16

Post by jiggawatts »

ilaksh wrote: post #13

I believe that gpt-4o was really gpt-5, just renamed, and the multimodal stuff they demoed will actually be released within a month.

My reason for believing that is that it was trained from scratch, and was not a fine-tuning or other optimisation of the existing GPT-4 model. We know this because OpenAI has publicly stated that they're using a different tokenizer, which would have forced them to start the model training from step one.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for when GPT-5 will be released and how safe it will be?

#18

Post by wkat4242 »

What's not 'safe' about AI?

If you mean the hallucinations I don't think that will ever really be solved. I think people just have to learn that LLMs are not divine oracles that are always correct. Just like the training data generated by the flawed humans that are often either wrong or outright lying.

Garbage in, garbage out.

Not saying that AI isn't useful. But expecting what is basically a "human simulator" not to inherit humanity's flaws is a bit disingenious.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for when GPT-5 will be released and how safe it will be?

#19

Post by meiraleal »

ramblerman wrote: post #12

I predict - a steady increment of GPT-n+1 every 6 months for marketing purposes. - each will improve on the last by smaller and smaller margins. - hallucinations won't be fixed anytime soon. - We will hit a bit of a winter, as the hype was so big but like self driving cars the devil is in the details. The general public realizes these things are just essentially giving us averages. - A big market will emerge around "…

> - a steady increment of GPT-n+1 every 6 months for marketing purposes.

You already failed then, gpt4 was released more than a year ago

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for when GPT-5 will be released and how safe it will be?

#20

Post by stormfather »

GPT-5 will be somewhat better at reasoning on hard problems, just as safe, and slower than GPT-4 by some margin. I think the moat for foundation model providers will be amassing training data that helps with reasoning capability, which is why it is taking longer to release GPT-5. Release will be governed by competition, but my wild guess is the end of the year. As some other commenters have noted, we are likely approaching diminishing returns with LLM training and OpenAI would like to delay the public's realization of this.
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