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Ask HN: What is your prediction for the world economy in the next 10 years?

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11–16 of 16 posts

Re: Ask HN: What is your prediction for the world economy in the next 10 years?

#11
Deglobalization is going to force a restructuring of supply chains and a reconsideration of just in time practices.

A large scale switch to regenerative agriculture makes it possible to reduce climate change by pulling gigatons of co2 out of the atmosphere.

Re: Ask HN: What is your prediction for the world economy in the next 10 years?

#13

Growth. De-escalation of current conflicts and new conflicts arise. EU/US economy prevails. Change in China kicks off new growth and prosperity. Renewable electricity and batteries continue to take off and global GHG emissions fall.

What do you think about money and income? If people in the Western world get older, lose jobs, earn less money, and have fewer kids, who will buy those kinds of products? Maybe people in “third-world” countries (who might have enough young people)? How can those young people exchange their labor for money? Will an unskilled worker have enough wealth to buy such products? What about governments? Will they make taxation higher (e.g., less wealth for you)?

Re: Ask HN: What is your prediction for the world economy in the next 10 years?

#14

Growth. De-escalation of current conflicts and new conflicts arise. EU/US economy prevails. Change in China kicks off new growth and prosperity. Renewable electricity and batteries continue to take off and global GHG emissions fall.

What do you think about money and income? If people in the Western world get older, lose jobs, earn less money, and have fewer kids, who will buy those kinds of products? Maybe people in “third-world” countries (who might have enough young people)? How can those young people exchange their labor for money? Will an unskilled worker have enough wealth to buy such products? What about governments? Will they make taxatio…

Low and medium percentile earners will make a little more income inflation adjusted, high earners will earn even more. Discussions of inequality therefore continue as they have now. Automation starts kicking off in a more significant way and more than offsets declines in population growth.

Re: Ask HN: What is your prediction for the world economy in the next 10 years?

#15

At least from my experience and from the suggestions from Nassim Taleb (e.g., past events/data != future outcome/data), we cannot reliably predict the future. The only thing that is constant is, as someone a long time argued, is “change”. Arguably, basic needs, and with that I mean existential needs, seem to be universal for most lifeforms: water, forms of energy (i.e., food, warmth), and the ability to maintain your…

Regarding manual labor for most able-bodied ages, I think real income will increase for people even as automation kicks off more significantly. You already see this in the "trades" in HCOL areas, it's very expensive to get any work done on houses, and those jobs aren't going to be automated away for a very long time.

Re: Ask HN: What is your prediction for the world economy in the next 10 years?

#16

China's economy crashed in the 60's US manufacturing saved them, but they failed to get enough money to build the middle class they need to support them long term. Russia failed in the late 80's and that lead to their gov collapse, and the graduates of the 80's were the last ones able to run their economy, and they are retiring now/soon without replacement, hence the Ukraine war. The last death throes. EU got too add…

loss of the middle class You mean like https://www.forbes.com/sites/katharinabuchholz/2023/04/21/ho...

Yup, that's why I included it in the examples. Look at that problem and what it has done to South Africa as well. They're too poor to even afford water.
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