This can be a very troubling question for some of the brightest minds in theory. The question itself both evoke the thought of R*k* ’* Basili*k*
That really isn't how the experiment works.
Ask HN: What does a post AGI economy look like?
11–20 of 25 posts
Re: Ask HN: What does a post AGI economy look like?
#12An observation: Computers are already really good at chess, better than most people. You might say that we've passed the "chess singularity." But many people still buy chess boards, play chess against each other, travel to chess tournaments, and so on. There's still a vibrant global "chess economy."
Vitally though chess is played for entertainment
Re: Ask HN: What does a post AGI economy look like?
#13Our ability to think won't become useless, it becomes equal to the expense to host and train the system taking over it.
Re: Ask HN: What does a post AGI economy look like?
#14https://orionsarm.com/ Though TBH I am more worried about the global economy breaking before we get actual AGI or even pseudo-AGI. Seems like machine learning is going to create a lot of low quality output controlled by a very small number of people well before it becomes generally intelligent. That will be miserable.
> Seems like machine learning is going to create a lot of low quality output controlled by a very small number of people well before it becomes generally intelligent. That will be miserable.
It might not be miserable. It might lead to a widespread desire for higher quality.
Re: Ask HN: What does a post AGI economy look like?
#15UBI is utopia regardless of AGI or any tech innovation.
Scarce resources is another myth. Resources are created by people’s cooperation, not destroyed by people fighting for them. (Think how scarces resources we 2000 years ago, and yet here we are, using new resources that those people couldn’t even imagine).
And if majority of people will keep believing in such myths - no need to wait for AGI, economy has already changed. To the economy of ignorance.
Re: Ask HN: What does a post AGI economy look like?
#16Iain Banks's culture novels are one potential outcome: we create artificial minds that basically do all the work and keep us around as partners. Fully automated luxury space communism.
More likely case is that there is a revolution to topple the trillionares who monopolize these systems to take over the economy.
Re: Ask HN: What does a post AGI economy look like?
#17Let's say that my silly BitGrid idea works, and the price of a Petaflop goes down by a factor of 1000. Then the other limiting factors that actually prevent AGI from taking place become exposed. Training data only gets you so far. A trained neural network is an optimization of the human knowledge its been fed, a premature optimization, one like the crisis in computer security (caused by settling on the wrong security model), will likely take decades to reverse.
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You're worried about the wrong end of economics, though... it's the physical economy that's about to bite, hard. (I got that phrase from Lyndon LaRouche, he had a lot of interesting ideas, but that one stuck)
The global consumption of fossil fuels is about to hit its downslope, and a great simplification of society is going to be the result. We're extracting resources from the plant at millions of times the rate they are created, and because of the American model of corporate governance, only focusing on the next Quarter, planning to deal with this reality isn't happening.
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It is possible to train an AGI today, with corporate level resources and a generational commitment. you need to put a really good anthropomorphic robot body through all the stages of childhood, being especially careful to emulate all the weaknesses, and the drive for survival, and the need for others to support you, as babies are completely helpless.
Re: Ask HN: What does a post AGI economy look like?
#18I suppose it depends on your premise. Is your AGI like a GPT-20, something that takes human input and intention and completes the mental labor like having a team of 1000 expert humans? Or is it more like a superintelligence that has its own will and goals that are potentially beyond human capability to understand? If you’re talking a superintelligence, then forget it. The human race will have been surpassed and if we…
> If it’s human level AGI under firm human control This just sounds like slavery with extra steps
There’s certainly a kind of moral hazard here, and one that humanity has a terrible track record with. If an AGI has human-level capability, but is unconscious and non-subjective, then it’s just a really incredible tool. It would not be the first time we othered an intelligent, subjective being though.
Re: Ask HN: What does a post AGI economy look like?
#19An observation: Computers are already really good at chess, better than most people. You might say that we've passed the "chess singularity." But many people still buy chess boards, play chess against each other, travel to chess tournaments, and so on. There's still a vibrant global "chess economy."
Vitally though chess is played for entertainment
I'd risk to say it's also quite a business niche, I can't remember what are top players making but they are definitely not doing this purely for entertainment.
Even if we assume it's purely for entertainment, the ecosystem is driving flow of goods (chess boards, chess pieces, chess lessons for kids etc.). I remember seeing chess set in chess shop on Baker Street in London with 1k price tag (and I think this one was not the most expensive they had)
Re: Ask HN: What does a post AGI economy look like?
#20Iain Banks's culture novels are one potential outcome: we create artificial minds that basically do all the work and keep us around as partners. Fully automated luxury space communism. More likely case is that there is a revolution to topple the trillionares who monopolize these systems to take over the economy.
I remember reading fun but great article about trading with ants [1].
[1] https://worldspiritsockpuppet.com/2023/01/10/we-dont-trade-w...