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Ask HN: Do you think there will be social mobility after AGI?

news.ycombinator.com

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Re: Ask HN: Do you think there will be social mobility after AGI?

#11

Post by version_five »

muzani wrote: post #8
wmf wrote: post #2

There won't be. If AGI exists under current economic/government systems it will take everything.

Governments where one group takes everything don't last very long. I feel like we're at the brink of a violent revolution as it is, we came close during the COVID lockdowns. But democracy is usually a good alternative for extreme change. America seems to be locked in a two party system though, which may be insufficient.

I hope you're right. I saw the opposite in covid (and generally still do). A majority is happy to dehumanize and gang up on the minority in the name of safety or whatever, but it's really just human nature getting an acceptable outlet for hate. Many jurisdictions saw broad support for abandoning post enlightenment values and accepting their neighbors being demonized and tyrannized while authoritarian controls were applied to daily life. Next time I expect it will be worse, and for even worse reasons.

Re: Ask HN: Do you think there will be social mobility after AGI?

#12

Post by scrubs »

Artificial general intelligence? When it hits it will effect greatly social economic mobility.

However,

- AGI isn't here and won't be for a good while. There's little in LLM like chatgpt4 that resembles biological intelligence which is the only thing that unambiguously demonstrates general intelligence

- theoretically individuals can already migrate up through education. How/if people try and just how impactful it is highly depends on the individual's desire to improve. And I doubt there will be a sea change just because, in the first 2/3rds of AGI revolution, that everybody will leverage it.

- mental health will continue to impact negatively the ability of individuals to adapt

Re: Ask HN: Do you think there will be social mobility after AGI?

#13

Post by willmeyers »

Excuse me - It's Friday and I've finished working so I'm having a few beers... I went to Bronx Community College here in NYC. It was the only place that accepted me close by. That was only six years ago or so. For me, that institution was the only way out of a life of working part-time bar gigs. I went on to CCNY and got a nice full-time programming job. Life is good yadda yadda.

In my opinion, access to free education is key to social mobility.

AGI doesn't change anything. It enriches everything. It's a tool. A bicycle for the mind (not to sound cliché). AGI, could be compared to the invention to writing. It doesn't invent anything new but reinforces what we know. Everyone gains from it, of course some more than others. But nonetheless AGI will enrich our lives, and hopefully help those struggling out of a life of hunger/poverty and into a a life that they can support themselves and their families.

Re: Ask HN: Do you think there will be social mobility after AGI?

#14

Post by dangitnotagain »

Yes, certainly, until it is hobbled by paranoia and special interests.

The key to success will be in knowing thine own self.

Are you capable of social mobility if you had the free competent labor of an assistant?

There are those who will take every opportunity and those who will wait and see.

Those who take the opportunity will arrange their thoughts and priorities to bootstrap their success, whatever that may be.

Everyone else will be watching to see what others will do!

Re: Ask HN: Do you think there will be social mobility after AGI?

#18

Post by ksey3 »

willmeyers wrote: post #13

Excuse me - It's Friday and I've finished working so I'm having a few beers... I went to Bronx Community College here in NYC. It was the only place that accepted me close by. That was only six years ago or so. For me, that institution was the only way out of a life of working part-time bar gigs. I went on to CCNY and got a nice full-time programming job. Life is good yadda yadda. In my opinion, access to free educati…

OP is more worried about how it effects Ambitious people.

Ambitious people are a small subset of the chimp troupe, and they usually end up in charge cause they dont mind doing mindless bullshit everyday, as long as they get their status elevated. Society calls this activity 'hard work' and rewards it cause it keeps the factory lights on. When the chimps run a factory/institution/military/govt you need a "socio-economic ladder" structure to keep the chimps in line. A hierarchical structure based on domination and obedience, rewards and punishment, respect and trust and even that thing called love. Will we require all this when robots do things better?

Sort of like in sports you have these ever optimizing robotic humans practicing night and day, to gain some milli second advantage over some other robot. For what? So nike and coke can sell more unnecessary shit to everyone. Now if coke and nike can entertain you with two AGI robots instead, ever optimizing to entertain and "break records" every other game (for optimal attention capture) then what do we need sports stars for?

When robots do what robots do - their 'hard work', 'calculated risk' night and day, day in day out, do we call it Ambition to climb the 'socio-economic ladder'?

Re: Ask HN: Do you think there will be social mobility after AGI?

#19

Post by throwawayadvsec »

If there is true AGI, I don't see the reason why 99% of the population would have a reason to stay employed

If there is AGI AND enough computing power, it will either make social mobility disappear because everyone would be up the socio-economic ladder, or it's an apocalypse, there is no in between.

During the time there isn't enough computing power for every jobs, but running it costs less than a salary, then I guess there would be high unemployment rates for a few years.

Re: Ask HN: Do you think there will be social mobility after AGI?

#20

Post by richk449 »

ksey3 wrote: post #18
willmeyers wrote: post #13

Excuse me - It's Friday and I've finished working so I'm having a few beers... I went to Bronx Community College here in NYC. It was the only place that accepted me close by. That was only six years ago or so. For me, that institution was the only way out of a life of working part-time bar gigs. I went on to CCNY and got a nice full-time programming job. Life is good yadda yadda. In my opinion, access to free educati…

OP is more worried about how it effects Ambitious people. Ambitious people are a small subset of the chimp troupe, and they usually end up in charge cause they dont mind doing mindless bullshit everyday, as long as they get their status elevated. Society calls this activity 'hard work' and rewards it cause it keeps the factory lights on. When the chimps run a factory/institution/military/govt you need a "socio-econom…

You seem to have captured some truth. But isn’t it also true that the cushy life is possible because of the previous generations strivers? It was Glug that caught only the minimum amount of animal needed to survive that built the modern world, it was Sven that spent his spare time figuring out how to make tools.

Maybe life is cushy enough now that we can stop trying? But don’t you think that if we put I. Another hundred years of hard work, we will look back and think of the 2020 life as pretty brutal by comparison to 2120?

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