Ask HN: What sort of systemic risk to crypto is Paul Graham referring to? • Hacker News Board

Re: Ask HN: What sort of systemic risk to crypto is Paul Graham referring to?

#11

Post by Keyframe » Mon, Nov 21, 2022, 2:55 AM UTC

zeven7 wrote: post #10

Keyframe wrote: post #7

With all the recent calls for transparency and public auditing, I'd guess USDT; My guess is as worth as any though. USDT run would be a mother of all systemic risks barring one of the majors (BTC/ETH/ADA) technical stumbling or second coming of Satoshi (dormant wallets resurrection event).

But if it was UDST, what new information could PG's friend even have. "They're not solvent" isn't news. A run can't exactly be predicted by an insider more than anyone else. It's hard to imagine what information about USDT leads to that tweet.

More guessing than even a conjecture, but on a USDT train of thought new information would be the timing of the incoming event as imminent. It's all wild speculation, who knows. For all things considered, if PG's "friend" couldn't reveal more details than a warning (which is tied to timing), it's all FUD.

Re: Ask HN: What sort of systemic risk to crypto is Paul Graham referring to?

#12

Post by NotYourLawyer » Mon, Nov 21, 2022, 2:59 AM UTC

Tether crash is my wild ass guess.

Re: Ask HN: What sort of systemic risk to crypto is Paul Graham referring to?

#13

Post by roflyear » Mon, Nov 21, 2022, 3:10 AM UTC

mikequinlan wrote: post #5

pdog wrote: post #2

Not sure how to interpret these tweets: > A person I have known for more than ten years, who I consider trustworthy, is convinced the cryptocurrency economy will shortly experience a systemic risk. I don’t know anything concrete, but if I were exposed, I would be concerned. https://twitter.com/paulg/status/1594446009010212865 > I didn't write that. He did. Since I don't know any details, I didn't feel I should edit i…

All we know is that some anonymous person told Paul Graham "the cryptocurrency economy will shortly experience a systemic risk" and Paul decided to echo that statement without any explanation.

PG not that smart need to me.

Re: Ask HN: What sort of systemic risk to crypto is Paul Graham referring to?

#14

Post by jleyank » Mon, Nov 21, 2022, 3:29 AM UTC

Perhaps PG’s buddy is concerned what will step in to stop a run on crypto? There are no state actors that I’m aware of like central banks for currency.

Re: Ask HN: What sort of systemic risk to crypto is Paul Graham referring to?

#15

Post by Kukumber » Mon, Nov 21, 2022, 3:36 AM UTC

The FED concluded their digital currency experiment with bitcoin and ETH, they are ready to dispose them, and are ready to push for the digital EURODOLLAR

"systemic" and crypto is not something one mix together, another evidence of it being a FED project

That's my theory

Oh and i'm pretty sure he meant YC is done with crypto projects, they were crypto advocators, recently made a statement that they wanted to keep push for crypto projects, but with the current events that might have altered their plan

Re: Ask HN: What sort of systemic risk to crypto is Paul Graham referring to?

#16

Post by binarynate » Mon, Nov 21, 2022, 3:36 AM UTC

Coinbase was part of the YC Summer '12 batch. What are the odds he's referring to Brian Armstrong? It may be a long shot, but that would at least explain why the concern from his friend is noteworthy.

Re: Ask HN: What sort of systemic risk to crypto is Paul Graham referring to?

#17

Post by slaw » Mon, Nov 21, 2022, 3:48 AM UTC

Why US government stopped Facebook from releasing blockckchain currency? Also Signal and Telegram were blocked. At the same time all these crypto exchange Ponzi schemes are allowed to function.

Re: Ask HN: What sort of systemic risk to crypto is Paul Graham referring to?

#18

Post by zeven7 » Mon, Nov 21, 2022, 3:57 AM UTC

binarynate wrote: post #16

Coinbase was part of the YC Summer '12 batch. What are the odds he's referring to Brian Armstrong? It may be a long shot, but that would at least explain why the concern from his friend is noteworthy.

Brian Armstrong is just as much of a public figure as Paul Graham, probably more so. Wouldn't it be odd for Brian Armstrong to send a tweet like this through Paul Graham's twitter?

Re: Ask HN: What sort of systemic risk to crypto is Paul Graham referring to?

#19

Post by weare138 » Mon, Nov 21, 2022, 3:59 AM UTC

danielvf wrote: post #6

As someone who has worked for years in crypto, the tweet reads as very late to catching up with things. After the repeated huge insolvencies of the last few months, everyone in crypto knows there's massive systemic risk, and new risk from ill thought out new regulation. Everyone has their own list of which companies they guess will be next. It's very hard to take the tweet seriously. It's like walking around in the C…

It's very hard to take the tweet seriously. It's like walking around in the California hills predicting a forest fire, during a super dry summer, while orange glows from nearby hills light up the smoke that is choking the air, and ash rains down.

So you're saying it's not something that's going to happen in the future but instead happening right now? Well that's reassuring.

Re: Ask HN: What sort of systemic risk to crypto is Paul Graham referring to?

#20

Post by Kukumber » Mon, Nov 21, 2022, 4:00 AM UTC

slaw wrote: post #17

Why US government stopped Facebook from releasing blockckchain currency? Also Signal and Telegram were blocked. At the same time all these crypto exchange Ponzi schemes are allowed to function.

"Libra", i always thought that would be a name the EU would pick for their digital EURO, it fits perfectly