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Ask HN: How do you deal with the end of globalization?

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Re: Ask HN: How do you deal with the end of globalization?

#11

Post by SapporoChris »

No. First you must produce compelling evidence that globalization is ending before you can should ask how to deal with such. I don't see the evidence, to many countries have on going interconnected relationships.

Before we address something like this, you would need to show evidence that it is happening, such as: Imports and exports are halting for a majority of the countries. Termination of diplomacy and communication between countries.

To assist in this, you might consult some definitions of globalism.

Re: Ask HN: How do you deal with the end of globalization?

#12

Post by sp332 »

The future is more human-oriented instead of pursuing profit at the cost of everything else. It will be based on resilience instead of JIT, sustainability instead of extraction. Growth will be slow to zero, but things won't crash so often or so hard either.

https://www.marketplace.org/2022/05/02/u-s-trade-representat...

Re: Ask HN: How do you deal with the end of globalization?

#13

Post by anm89 »

SapporoChris wrote: post #11

No. First you must produce compelling evidence that globalization is ending before you can should ask how to deal with such. I don't see the evidence, to many countries have on going interconnected relationships. Before we address something like this, you would need to show evidence that it is happening, such as: Imports and exports are halting for a majority of the countries. Termination of diplomacy and communicati…

These are always the most cartoonish viewpoints.

How dare you have an opinion! This is the internet! SapporoChris is going to require journal published studies, probably several, before granting you the unbelievable kindness of acknowledging your question.

Re: Ask HN: How do you deal with the end of globalization?

#15

Post by nostromo »

This only really matters if you live in China or Russia. Everyone else will do just fine or better as manufacturing in China plateaus or declines and Russia’s sphere of influence recedes to its own border.

The US will continue to grow modestly but steadily with decent governance, lots of resources, and a growing population.

Re: Ask HN: How do you deal with the end of globalization?

#16

Post by fabianhjr »

shahbaby wrote: post #8

Bad information is often worse than no information which is why it's better to save your energy/time/resources to deal with circumstances as they unfold instead of trying to prepare for the unknown.

Risk assessments and decision rules like Minimax exist. (Saving up energy/time/resources is a specific possible action of many and might or might not be the optimal action)

Re: Ask HN: How do you deal with the end of globalization?

#17

Post by gruez »

ipaddr wrote: post #6

China and Russia are yesterdays growth stories (China is still at 5%). Look for growth in other places like Brazil which is poised to grow in the next 20 years.

> Look for growth in other places like Brazil which is poised to grow in the next 20 years.

Poised... how? This graph from a recent economist article doesn't inspire much confidence: https://www.economist.com/img/b/400/436/90/media-assets/imag...

Re: Ask HN: How do you deal with the end of globalization?

#18

Post by anm89 »

I would try to avoid such binary narratives. I don't think globalization and growth are done, but they will almost certainly be very different going forward. In the case of the US, I think it's fair to say it will be a very long time before we have the level of globalized supply chains that we had at the end of 2019.

I read this article earlier today which I thought provided some pretty insightful answers to this question:

https://themarket.ch/interview/russell-napier-the-world-will...

Re: Ask HN: How do you deal with the end of globalization?

#19

Post by Bombthecat »

DenverR wrote: post #7
ipaddr wrote: post #6

China and Russia are yesterdays growth stories (China is still at 5%). Look for growth in other places like Brazil which is poised to grow in the next 20 years.

India

Climate change would like to have a word with you

Re: Ask HN: How do you deal with the end of globalization?

#20

Post by Throwawayaerlei »

version_five wrote: post #3

> Cold War 2.0 is coming This would be a blessing. I think we can trace most of our problems back to the end of the cold war. If we have some common thing to fight against we stop fighting each other (see Watchmen- ironically though it was about ending the cold war but a level down it works) More realistic is a 1984 style "continuous but meaningless war" that lets the various parties pursue their ideological aims wit…

"I think we can trace most of our problems back to the end of the cold war. If we have some common thing to fight against we stop fighting each other...."

That never happened during the Cold War from what I've read, and from what I observed starting in the early 1970s it steadily got worse.

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