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Ask HN: Does SpaceX have a chance at making life multiplanetary?

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Re: Ask HN: Does SpaceX have a chance at making life multiplanetary?

#11

Post by ActorNightly »

gregjor wrote: post #4

You can find reliable analysis of the SpaceX Mars plans. See the Common Sense Skeptic YouTube videos. Not a fan of Musk, but the skeptic gets into details about the physics, logistics, and physiology problems that Musk glosses over. Mars doesn't have a magnetosphere, for one thing, so radiation is a big problem Musk already dismissed. We already know human bodies lose muscle and bone after just a few weeks in space.…

I think Musk's stance on Mars is that Space X tech is necessarily gonna be the thing that makes living there happen, but the idea is that humanity needs to spend resources to get there within its capability because every minute we don't sets us "backwards"

Re: Ask HN: Does SpaceX have a chance at making life multiplanetary?

#12

Post by metadat »

quickaskq wrote: post #7
metadat wrote: post #2

No, if mullosk was serious they should've started with Moon colonization. Worst case: It's a huckster distraction while the public gets robbed. Best case: He's an idiot huckster taking the public and his cultists for a spin. Initially we were excited about the SpaceX plan but now it's revealed to be largely a sham. Human interest is apparently not the end-game.

Yeah, there are faint mentions of moon colonization from Musk, but more often than not he talks about Mars. I do agree more and more that Musk is a grifter (look no further than Twitter), but SpaceX seems to be one of his ventures that’s not a grift. The technology actually works (falcon 9 works, dragon works, Starlink works), and I don’t see what kind of financial gain he has in going to Mars. Possibly hoping the go…

It's the bait to keep us subdued until he expires.

Re: Ask HN: Does SpaceX have a chance at making life multiplanetary?

#13

Post by mikewarot »

We'll be quite lucky if we can build a colony on the moon, and that's a far closer goal. We know people don't do well in zero gravity, it remains to be seen how well we hold up in 1/6 gravity. It might be enough to keep the worst of the effects from happening.

Anything we do on the moon is going to have to be sub-surface to get away from the radiation and dust problems.

I don't see us getting a colony on Mars without non-chemical propulsion.

Re: Ask HN: Does SpaceX have a chance at making life multiplanetary?

#14

Post by gregjor »

ActorNightly wrote: post #11
gregjor wrote: post #4

You can find reliable analysis of the SpaceX Mars plans. See the Common Sense Skeptic YouTube videos. Not a fan of Musk, but the skeptic gets into details about the physics, logistics, and physiology problems that Musk glosses over. Mars doesn't have a magnetosphere, for one thing, so radiation is a big problem Musk already dismissed. We already know human bodies lose muscle and bone after just a few weeks in space.…

I think Musk's stance on Mars is that Space X tech is necessarily gonna be the thing that makes living there happen, but the idea is that humanity needs to spend resources to get there within its capability because every minute we don't sets us "backwards"

You don't need to interpret what Musk might mean. Musk publicly predicted people on Mars by 2025, then 2026, then 2029. He predicted a million people living on Mars by 2050. He has been specific, if not consistent.

I don't see how humanity will go backward if we don't colonize Mars. That's the kind of thing a cult leader says.

In the meantime Musk is squandering $44bn to buy Twitter just to show that he can.

Re: Ask HN: Does SpaceX have a chance at making life multiplanetary?

#16

Post by yellow_lead »

quickaskq wrote: post #7
metadat wrote: post #2

No, if mullosk was serious they should've started with Moon colonization. Worst case: It's a huckster distraction while the public gets robbed. Best case: He's an idiot huckster taking the public and his cultists for a spin. Initially we were excited about the SpaceX plan but now it's revealed to be largely a sham. Human interest is apparently not the end-game.

Yeah, there are faint mentions of moon colonization from Musk, but more often than not he talks about Mars. I do agree more and more that Musk is a grifter (look no further than Twitter), but SpaceX seems to be one of his ventures that’s not a grift. The technology actually works (falcon 9 works, dragon works, Starlink works), and I don’t see what kind of financial gain he has in going to Mars. Possibly hoping the go…

Delusions of grandeur and wanting to become the ruler of Mars? He's also said before that passengers can pay off their transit in an indentured servitude like fashion.

From Starlink TOS:

>"For Services provided on Mars, or in transit to Mars via Starship or other colonization spacecraft, the parties recognize Mars as a free planet and that no Earth-based government has authority or sovereignty over Martian activities. Accordingly, Disputes will be settled through self-governing principles, established in good faith, at the time of Martian settlement."

Re: Ask HN: Does SpaceX have a chance at making life multiplanetary?

#17

Post by ActorNightly »

gregjor wrote: post #14
ActorNightly wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think Musk's stance on Mars is that Space X tech is necessarily gonna be the thing that makes living there happen, but the idea is that humanity needs to spend resources to get there within its capability because every minute we don't sets us "backwards"

You don't need to interpret what Musk might mean. Musk publicly predicted people on Mars by 2025, then 2026, then 2029. He predicted a million people living on Mars by 2050. He has been specific, if not consistent. I don't see how humanity will go backward if we don't colonize Mars. That's the kind of thing a cult leader says. In the meantime Musk is squandering $44bn to buy Twitter just to show that he can.

He didn't predict any of those.

He said something that sounded like a prediction in an interview, and media outlets, knowing people like you will surely click on a clickbait anti-Musk article, picked it up and ran with it.

Saying "I think this is possible in x years" is not the same thing as saying "Space X will deliver in x years"

Re: Ask HN: Does SpaceX have a chance at making life multiplanetary?

#18

Post by gregjor »

ActorNightly wrote: post #17
gregjor wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't need to interpret what Musk might mean. Musk publicly predicted people on Mars by 2025, then 2026, then 2029. He predicted a million people living on Mars by 2050. He has been specific, if not consistent. I don't see how humanity will go backward if we don't colonize Mars. That's the kind of thing a cult leader says. In the meantime Musk is squandering $44bn to buy Twitter just to show that he can.

He didn't predict any of those. He said something that sounded like a prediction in an interview, and media outlets, knowing people like you will surely click on a clickbait anti-Musk article, picked it up and ran with it. Saying "I think this is possible in x years" is not the same thing as saying "Space X will deliver in x years"

Fortunately it’s very easy to find almost everything Musk has said or tweeted. He has made multiple specific predictions. 2029 for humans on Mars and 2050 for a million people were indeed widely-reported and may have had clickbait titles, but they quote Musk’s public pronouncements and Tweets. You can read his statements as predictions or wishes. If Musk was just musing on his aspirations why has he repeatedly given specific dates?

The people who were promised full self-driving Teslas and paid for that didn’t interpret specific delivery dates and promises of features as mere possibilities.

Re: Ask HN: Does SpaceX have a chance at making life multiplanetary?

#19

Post by quickaskq »

ActorNightly wrote: post #17
gregjor wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't need to interpret what Musk might mean. Musk publicly predicted people on Mars by 2025, then 2026, then 2029. He predicted a million people living on Mars by 2050. He has been specific, if not consistent. I don't see how humanity will go backward if we don't colonize Mars. That's the kind of thing a cult leader says. In the meantime Musk is squandering $44bn to buy Twitter just to show that he can.

He didn't predict any of those. He said something that sounded like a prediction in an interview, and media outlets, knowing people like you will surely click on a clickbait anti-Musk article, picked it up and ran with it. Saying "I think this is possible in x years" is not the same thing as saying "Space X will deliver in x years"

He never fully predicts or promises, but we all know the infamous Musk time, where he says one of his inventions will be ready “next year”.

for the last 8 years Musk has been promising FSD and that it will be ready next year.

Re: Ask HN: Does SpaceX have a chance at making life multiplanetary?

#20

Post by gregjor »

quickaskq wrote: post #19
ActorNightly wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He didn't predict any of those. He said something that sounded like a prediction in an interview, and media outlets, knowing people like you will surely click on a clickbait anti-Musk article, picked it up and ran with it. Saying "I think this is possible in x years" is not the same thing as saying "Space X will deliver in x years"

He never fully predicts or promises, but we all know the infamous Musk time, where he says one of his inventions will be ready “next year”. for the last 8 years Musk has been promising FSD and that it will be ready next year.

He promises things people want to believe. Like fortune tellers, psychics, and astrologers. Because it's clothed in "tech" it seems believable to the ignorant and hopeful. Musk may believe what he says, I don't know. He has a history of self-serving bullshit.
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