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Ask HN: Is the USA in a silent Covid wave?

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Re: Ask HN: Is the USA in a silent Covid wave?

#11
My person opinion;

The number of cases is the least interesting statistic, and almost certainly the most inaccurate. Anecdotally people who get symptoms don't bother to test because, why would you[3]? Most cases are no worse than a common cold.[4]

The really important numbers are hospitalizations, and deaths. And from a personal point of view, I'd like to know the vaccination status and comorbidity status of deaths. If you tell me some significant proportion of deaths are not-up-to-date vaccinated, or that some significant proportion have specific co-morbidities, then I can adjust (or not adjust) my behaviour accordingly.

Put another way, I'm aware of many people who have tested positive for covid [1], and been just fine. Many more who got some level of sick, but not sick enough to bother testing. It's been a while since I heard of a specific death. And I assume [2] that those who are dying are either unvacinated or have some other health condition. And thus I behave accordingly.

I feel like most people are now in the same boat - get vaccinated, or don't, its your choice. Live normally, or don't it's your choice. I'm getting on with life and around me I see others doing the same. I might catch it and die. I might get long covid. But I'm fully vaxed and boosted, so those risks are in proportion to all the other risks I take every day.

[3] tests cost money here. If you're not sick enough to even see a doctor, why spend money on a test. Just stay home like you would (should) for any cold/flu.

[4] yes, I'm aware of long covid. It's not like I'm going around licking sick people.

I'm also aware of TB, malaria, Yuppie flu, and a million other things. I'm aware of road accidents, but I still drive. Life is full of risk.

[1] I'm talking about post-vaccination time scales here, - not 2 years ago.

[2] who is dying is not being reported here. In the absence of data I assume whatever data suits my preferred naritive. I'm sure there's a group that assumes all deaths are caused by booster shots in 20 year old.

Re: Ask HN: Is the USA in a silent Covid wave?

#12

The public health system has been stood down, for political reasons. The crisis isn't over... many of us suffered a fate worse than death, long covid. I'm one of a huge number of effectively disabled people yanked out of contributing to society in a fully productive manner. The estimates for how many of us there are vary wildly, but we're definitely a cost that hasn't been considered. In the future, I suspect they'll…

What could have been done differently ? What should we do diffidently going forward ?

In the beginning, we could have made a far stronger effort at containment, with a goal of Covid zero. Going forward, we need to monitor for cases of Long Covid and other post-infection complications. We also need to implement a social support system for those affected.

Shifting our framing of healthcare from a source of profit, to a vital part of our national security, might not be a horrible idea either.

Re: Ask HN: Is the USA in a silent Covid wave?

#13
post #4

Cases are up. Hospitalizations are up. Deaths were falling but have levelled off. https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#county-view?list_s... Scroll down to the map and see how much of the country has "high" rates of community transmission, meaning more than 100 new cases per 100,000 population in the last week. If your news sources are not telling you about it, I recommend Violet Blue's Patreon (free), where she…

The CDC page you linked has graphs and stats of patients "with covid". I don't care much about that. I want to know hospitalizations FROM covid. Where can I get that?

Re: Ask HN: Is the USA in a silent Covid wave?

#16
Since Omicron preventing infection has become almost impossible.

Vaccinations means that for most people this will be like a multi day bad hangover.

And for those who have pre existing conditions, there are medications that can help prevent them from getting seriously ill.

The vaccines are working great and we have great medication. What we need is to get more people vaccinated and make sure every doctor understands when and how to prescribe the medications we have (especially Paxlovid). The fact that so many people are dying while Paxlovid is sitting on the shelves is a tragedy.

Re: Ask HN: Is the USA in a silent Covid wave?

#17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What could have been done differently ? What should we do diffidently going forward ?

In the beginning, we could have made a far stronger effort at containment, with a goal of Covid zero. Going forward, we need to monitor for cases of Long Covid and other post-infection complications. We also need to implement a social support system for those affected. Shifting our framing of healthcare from a source of profit, to a vital part of our national security, might not be a horrible idea either.

Other countries have tried (and are still trying) that with little success and a lot of collateral damage.

Re: Ask HN: Is the USA in a silent Covid wave?

#18

The public health system has been stood down, for political reasons. The crisis isn't over... many of us suffered a fate worse than death, long covid. I'm one of a huge number of effectively disabled people yanked out of contributing to society in a fully productive manner. The estimates for how many of us there are vary wildly, but we're definitely a cost that hasn't been considered. In the future, I suspect they'll…

What could have been done differently ? What should we do diffidently going forward ?

The US used to have an international pandemic monitoring and response team.

They helped China stop SARS 1, then Trump fired them all, and then SARS 2 (Covid) happened.

The team should be rebuilt. They helped stop other, non-coronavirus pandemics too.

Re: Ask HN: Is the USA in a silent Covid wave?

#19
post #7

I think it's a lot more localized. I read in the Violet Blue link posted elsewhere in thread that the "Bay Area was in a 5th wave" with "numbers higher than the Delta wave from summer 2021" and I couldn't reconcile that with the state-level numbers I had been seeing elsewhere... but then I drilled down into the county-level numbers and sure enough, for SF, Santa Clara, and Alameda, it's back up to August 2021 levels.…

Here are sewer monitoring graphs for Silicon Valley

https://covid19.sccgov.org/dashboard-wastewater

(These run about 6 days earlier than test results, and are not impacted by at-home tests.)

So, yes, it's similar to the August surge, but that one barely hit South Bay.

Anecdotally, our kids are in school, so we get all the respiratory diseases. There's a non-Covid cold going around south bay right now that's worse than Omicron (assuming you're fully vaccinated and boosted.)

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