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Ask HN: What are you reading to make sense of the economy?

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Re: Ask HN: What are you reading to make sense of the economy?

#11
post #2

Not having much luck myself, I don't think anyone knows how to make sense of it. Its either going to be worse than the great depression or no big deal. Have been scanning HN a lot for anything related to the economy and found little except for this post.

At this point I don't think anyone credible believes it will be no big deal.

Re: Ask HN: What are you reading to make sense of the economy?

#12
Living in Argentina, the political landscape has far more impact on the economy than in most other countries.

What I read here are:

- Newspaper titles (only read the content if something is really interesting)

- Twitter, following a few key people, both with a political and economical background

- Discuss with friends about economy topics

I know there's much noise in all that, but same as with politics, I don't think you'll be able to fully make sense of the economy unless you dive deep into it for many years, and even then you'll only get a partial view on many things.

Re: Ask HN: What are you reading to make sense of the economy?

#13
I’ve only read the odd HN posts and AP news articles. That being said, there might be interesting things on these places that were part of an article about how more and more people were resorting to getting financial advice from online sources.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Frugal/

https://www.reddit.com/r/personalfinance/

https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/

https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/

https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/

Oh, this was the article https://qz.com/1707479/reddit-has-become-a-guide-to-personal... (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22478854).

Then there are the recent HN posts to Lyn Alden’s work: https://news.ycombinator.com/from?site=lynalden.com .

Re: Ask HN: What are you reading to make sense of the economy?

#14
It helps to know what "making sense" means to you? If it means "Will my job be safe for the next 12 months", the reading will be different.

If it means "What 10-15 stocks are poised to give me great returns in the next 5 years", the reading will be different (this would be sector reports, 10-Ks etc)

If it means "how can I ensure that another economic shock won't destroy my wealth or plans for FIRE", the reading will be different.

FWIW, I am finishing up a book called "Contagion" [0] (not the fiction one ) and should start reading "Pale Rider" [1] about the 1918 pandemic. I've found that history offers guidance and opens your mind to possibilities thus offering solace.

[0] https://www.amazon.in/Rules-Contagion-Outbreaks-Infectious-D...

[1] https://www.amazon.in/Pale-Rider-Spanish-Changed-World-ebook...

Re: Ask HN: What are you reading to make sense of the economy?

#19
The only school that has any explanation for this is the Austrian School of Economics. Their theory of the business cycle is the reason they successfully predict every crisis to the tee (except for timing, no one can do that), while other economists are just blown away in surprise that it even happened.

Mises and Hayek wrote big and hard to read books about it, but two that explain this to the layman are "Meltdown" by Tom Woods[0] and "How An Economy Grows And Why It Crashes" by Peter Schiff[1]. The first is an explanation using the 2008 crisis, and the second is a very amusing yet educating economy lesson told as a kids' story.

Another book that can help grasp this, although I wouldn't read it first, is "The Forgotten Depression: 1921: The Crash That Cured Itself" by James Grant.

If you're interested in the actual business cycle theory, Tom Woods explained it briefly while promoting Meltdown. Explanation starts 14:03:

https://youtu.be/NBwJm68FkMc?t=844

[0] https://www.amazon.com/Meltdown-Economy-Tanked-Government-Ba...

[1] https://www.amazon.com/How-Economy-Grows-Why-Crashes/dp/B004...

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