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Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

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Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#11

Post by shartshooter »

The primary goal right now is to flatten the curve so the growth doesn't stay exponential for any longer than it has to.

Once that flattens out and the growth rate slows or decreases a concerns is that folks will head back out, assuming the coast is clear.

That could cause a second wave of infections that restarts this whole thing.

Folks not taking this seriously is a problem, imagine what happens when folks who don't take this seriously think that it's finally over, when it really isn't.

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#12

Post by haunter »

aqme28 wrote: post #9

I thought this interview was illuminating for post-lockdown life in China https://twitter.com/MikeIsaac/status/1238604080571772928?s=2... It shows just how far behind we are. TLDW: Temperature checks everywhere. Fever clinics optimized for quarantining the potentially infected. China is trying to actually contain the virus. The only way out for us unless we significantly ramp up testing and lockdown is to admit defea…

Or just watch this video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YfsdJGj3-jM

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#13

Post by kstenerud »

It's your typical pandemic response:

- denial

- placating measures

- minor lockdowns

- major lockdowns and panic (running to the store to stockpile toilet paper, for some reason)

- total quarantine

- life slowly returns to normal

China is now on the final stage (restaurants and stores reopening, etc), with the rest of the world between 2 and 3 months behind.

Most people are unable to comprehend exponential growth, so this is the pattern that gets followed.

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#15

Post by smacktoward »

aqme28 wrote: post #9

I thought this interview was illuminating for post-lockdown life in China https://twitter.com/MikeIsaac/status/1238604080571772928?s=2... It shows just how far behind we are. TLDW: Temperature checks everywhere. Fever clinics optimized for quarantining the potentially infected. China is trying to actually contain the virus. The only way out for us unless we significantly ramp up testing and lockdown is to admit defea…

> The only way out for us unless we significantly ramp up testing and lockdown is to admit defeat and simply optimize for slowing down the onslaught.

This has already happened. “Flatten the curve” takes it as written that most people will be exposed to the virus, and thus aims instead to just spread those exposures over a long enough period to avoid overwhelming the health care system.

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#16

Post by pmoriarty »

I've heard an epidemiologist say that if a vaccine becomes available in 18 months it'll be a record.

Experimental treatments are being researched, but with only very small numbers of patients. It'll take quite some time for those treatments to become widely available.

It's unlikely that we're going to even begin to see things return to normal in a month or even three of isolation, especially if that isolation isn't as effectively and universally enforced as in China.

Afterwards there has to be extremely aggressive testing, tracking, and monitoring, or the outbreak has a very good chance of starting all over again.

In addition, the health care system itself has to have time to recover and replenish its equipment, ICU capacity, and healthy and able medical personnel.

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#17

Post by rewgs »

complianceowl wrote: post #14

[flagged]

I remember when it was first gaining traction and the reason against immediately locking down and nipping this in the bud was that "but it's the new year and everyone is going to travel." I thought that was the stupidest reason in the world.

I get it, it's like Christmas here in the US. And if we were in the same position, I'd call to cancel Christmas.

I saw this coming a mile away and I'm angry about it, because stopping it could have been so simple had China taken preventative measures immediately.

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#18

Post by smoyer »

smacktoward wrote: post #15
aqme28 wrote: post #9

I thought this interview was illuminating for post-lockdown life in China https://twitter.com/MikeIsaac/status/1238604080571772928?s=2... It shows just how far behind we are. TLDW: Temperature checks everywhere. Fever clinics optimized for quarantining the potentially infected. China is trying to actually contain the virus. The only way out for us unless we significantly ramp up testing and lockdown is to admit defea…

> The only way out for us unless we significantly ramp up testing and lockdown is to admit defeat and simply optimize for slowing down the onslaught. This has already happened. “Flatten the curve” takes it as written that most people will be exposed to the virus, and thus aims instead to just spread those exposures over a long enough period to avoid overwhelming the health care system.

I saw a statistical analysis of the flatten the curve idea but assuming we couldn't ramp up the number of intensive care beds, it took 3600 days to fit everyone in under the "available health care" line.

It's still a good strategy for right now because it gives us some extra time to ramp testing and healthcare up.

Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?

#19

Post by drstewart »

kstenerud wrote: post #13

It's your typical pandemic response: - denial - placating measures - minor lockdowns - major lockdowns and panic (running to the store to stockpile toilet paper, for some reason) - total quarantine - life slowly returns to normal China is now on the final stage (restaurants and stores reopening, etc), with the rest of the world between 2 and 3 months behind. Most people are unable to comprehend exponential growth, so…

Total quarantine isn't happening in any western country
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