I am not willing to make this prediction, but I’d be interested in hearing if anyone thinks we will NOT see fully autonomous vehicles on the road by 2030. Even in 2010, it seemed just around the corner — but that turned out to be wrong.
Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?
11–20 of 1001 posts
Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?
#12Monoclonal antibody drugs will flood the market soon and usher in a new era of treatment for several diseases (MS, AD, certain cancers, etc).
Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?
#13[deleted]
Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?
#14By 2030 there will at least one small settlement on Mars, population at least 100 but more likely 1,000.
Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?
#15AI proves P != NP. The proof is 20K pages and not comprehensible by humans, who spend the next 30 years deciphering it, by which time the AI has proved the five remaining millennium problems. The AI elects to keep the Clay Prize money each time and donate it all to homeless chia pets, thus proving general-purpose AI is still a ways off.
Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?
#16I predict Apple/Google/Amazon/Facebook are only going to get more valuable and bigger. The previous idea that there are limits to growth that have already been reached... don't apply anymore. Not because they're any smarter than anyone else, but they're able to continuing buying and absorbing any and all competitive threats. And that the "moat" of initial costs to compete with them in existing areas is too high. (E.g…
This has been said about many companies in the past and it is rarely the case. Compared to the infrastructure needed to compete with Standard Oil, the railroads, or telecom, the capital expenditure to create a new tech company is miniscule.
Founders just need to not sell out. Look at the rise of TikTok. Even with search, DuckDuckGo with its privacy focus is starting to encroach on Google.
Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?
#17I wish I could put my finger on it, but there is a huge disconnect between economic reality and the current financial situation across most of the world. It seems to me, perhaps simplistically, that every central bank is simply issuing money to generate growth and this can't be sustainable. Our biggest industry would appear to be buying, renting and selling assets to each other.
My apartment overlooks a city of 1 million people in the UK - I estimate generously that 50,000 of them are economically productive in the sense of producing something of value that can be 'exported' from this city. The other 950,000 must live off that value - it doesn't make sense. All factories are flattened to make way for apartments. Any industrial development is of distribution centres for breaking down pallets of imported tat.
I don't know what this will lead to - perhaps it's the collapse of the Euro, the rise of some stable currency that isn't playing this game, or an opportunity for a new currency (crypto or something that we don't have yet).
Just as the LIBOR scandal revealed that commercial banks were just making up numbers, so I believe that central banks are doing the same with each other and trust will need to be removed from the system.
Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?
#181. Decentralized open source social networking platforms
2. Ownership of data, end-to-end encryption
3. Collaborative wiki news, copyleft drug research
4. The rapid emergence of a third party in the USA that is neither left nor right, but much bigger than Libertarian party
5. Decentralized solar power generation, Decentralized mobile mesh network communication, Nuclear Fusion, Decentralizing government functions
The best way to predict the future is to invent it ;-)
But also:
6. Drones filling the sky and terrorism scares
7. Self driving cars and terrorism scares
8. Insect and bird populations plummeting and many species going extinct
9. Water shortages, droughts, desertification and food shortages as humans cut back on meat, abolition of factory farms
10. The steady emergence of antibiotic-resistant bacteria is averted with phage therapy and other approaches as antibiotics see a slow decline
11. The resurgence of liberal democratic politicians, who nevertheless will have tough border policies because of the increasing influx of refugees
12. The rise of NATO-style forces against China and a new cold war
13. Introduction of UBI funded by Pigovian taxes on Cabon and Plastic pollution, destruction of ecosystems, etc.
14. First biosphere colony on Mars lasts for a while but is a tragic failure
15. Solar storm wipes out power grid, helping build a decentralized power grid
Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?
#19I predict Apple/Google/Amazon/Facebook are only going to get more valuable and bigger. The previous idea that there are limits to growth that have already been reached... don't apply anymore. Not because they're any smarter than anyone else, but they're able to continuing buying and absorbing any and all competitive threats. And that the "moat" of initial costs to compete with them in existing areas is too high. (E.g…
This has been said about many companies in the past and it is rarely the case. Compared to the infrastructure needed to compete with Standard Oil, the railroads, or telecom, the capital expenditure to create a new tech company is miniscule. Founders just need to not sell out. Look at the rise of TikTok. Even with search, DuckDuckGo with its privacy focus is starting to encroach on Google.
> the capital expenditure to create a new tech company is miniscule
Hiring a hundred AI engineers/scientists isn't cheap either.
Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?
#20Prediction for 2030. There will be 2030 new javascript frameworks.
*by may of 2020