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Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

news.ycombinator.com

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Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#13

Post by 11thEarlOfMar »

haunter wrote: post #5

IsaacL nailed it the best https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1027093 And surprisingly the WoW one is the most off :D

I thought ericb did very well:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025787

"not [electronically] tracking your kids will be considered somewhat negligent"

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#14

Post by fudged71 »

axaxs wrote: post #9

Reading this made me a bit sad. So many people were optimistic, and many predicted exciting things... but few if any of that happened.

I think everyone likes to predict contrarian things which are actually unlikely to happen, in the hopes that they will be the only one who predicted it... just like investing/gambling

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#18

Post by HeWhoLurksLate »

gaukes wrote: post #11

So many predictions about driverless cars. All wrong :( My guess is full self driving on high ways by 2030 with some semi-autonomous trucks. Removing a driver won’t happen until 2040-50.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say 2035 at the earliest for full self-driving partly because A) software engineers never feeling quite done, B) the underlying software, firmware, and hardware won't be proveably safe enough and C) because something political will make self-driving EV's much more difficult.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#19

Post by zozbot234 »

gregdoesit wrote: post #3

What a fun read! The one that ended up being the most off in the thread: > I predict (and hope for) a major turn back to simplicity in technologies. Multimillion-line software will go extinct like dinosaurs. Existing programming languages and platforms will gradually be replaced with ones so simple and elegant that one software component will be written and maintained by one to three developers and art designers and…

I'd say that this prediction is describing current developments quite well. Newer programming languages (Go, Rust) and development tools are making the "software as lean independent components" vision more relevant than it ever was.
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