Ask HN: What's the worst thing that could happen to Google?

#1

Post by bemmu » Mon, Nov 02, 2009, 2:19 AM UTC

What could ruin the Google profit party? I have a hard time imagining another search engine coming along that everyone would suddenly jump to, but I guess it is possible. It is trivial to switch search engines.

I can't come up with any reason why AdWords spend would suddenly vanish. Presumably companies are spending so much on AdWords because they are getting a return.

Because of smartphones, people are searching more and more. Local search ads seem like they could be a nice new rev source. At the same time more people are getting online, so more searches there too.

Re: Ask HN: What's the worst thing that could happen to Google?

#2

Post by justinsb » Mon, Nov 02, 2009, 2:24 AM UTC

How about Microsoft including an ad blocker in the next Windows Update.

Re: Ask HN: What's the worst thing that could happen to Google?

#3

Post by bemmu » Mon, Nov 02, 2009, 2:34 AM UTC

justinsb wrote: post #2

How about Microsoft including an ad blocker in the next Windows Update.

True, that would really hurt them. I can't even immediately come up with any reason why they couldn't do that, ad blockers are a very legit piece of software after all. Given how much sense this makes, what's been stopping MS from doing it so far?

Re: Ask HN: What's the worst thing that could happen to Google?

#4

Post by human_v2 » Mon, Nov 02, 2009, 2:37 AM UTC

I don't think advertising is going to be able to sustain Google indefinitely. As more tech-savvy users get on the web, their tolerance for advertisements will dwindle, along with advertisers' return. Google probably knows this, which is why they've moved into other markets like Android and Google's office tools. As far as search goes, I think they're either going to be king forever as we know it, or a 'better' search will come out... though I can't think of what could make search better than what Google has.

I, personally, would like to see Google become their own ISP. When there was news they were buying up 'dark fiber' I thought this might be in their future plans.

Re: Ask HN: What's the worst thing that could happen to Google?

#5

Post by human_v2 » Mon, Nov 02, 2009, 2:41 AM UTC

bemmu wrote: post #3

justinsb wrote: post #2

How about Microsoft including an ad blocker in the next Windows Update.

True, that would really hurt them. I can't even immediately come up with any reason why they couldn't do that, ad blockers are a very legit piece of software after all. Given how much sense this makes, what's been stopping MS from doing it so far?

Because MS is also an advertiser. Bing would become immediately worthless to advertisers if they did. Plus, assuming MS let their ads through and blocked Google's, Google would yell "anti-competition lawsuit" faster than you can say, well, anti-competition.

Re: Ask HN: What's the worst thing that could happen to Google?

#6

Post by patio11 » Mon, Nov 02, 2009, 2:45 AM UTC

What could ruin the Google profit party?

Anti-trust regulation to split Google and AdSense/AdWords would probably figure as the Ultimate Nightmare Scenario. I don't necessarily think that it is likely, but then again I never saw an OS/browser tag-team as being a threat to world peace.

Re: Ask HN: What's the worst thing that could happen to Google?

#7

Post by appathy » Mon, Nov 02, 2009, 3:06 AM UTC

human_v2 wrote: post #4

I don't think advertising is going to be able to sustain Google indefinitely. As more tech-savvy users get on the web, their tolerance for advertisements will dwindle, along with advertisers' return. Google probably knows this, which is why they've moved into other markets like Android and Google's office tools. As far as search goes, I think they're either going to be king forever as we know it, or a 'better' search…

However, Android isn't a direct moneymaker. Android is just a way to ensure that they make money off mobile search. aka advertising.

Re: Ask HN: What's the worst thing that could happen to Google?

#8

Post by petervandijck » Mon, Nov 02, 2009, 3:07 AM UTC

human_v2 wrote: post #4

I don't think advertising is going to be able to sustain Google indefinitely. As more tech-savvy users get on the web, their tolerance for advertisements will dwindle, along with advertisers' return. Google probably knows this, which is why they've moved into other markets like Android and Google's office tools. As far as search goes, I think they're either going to be king forever as we know it, or a 'better' search…

"As more tech-savvy users get on the web" => you realize you got it the wrong way round there, right? In other words, advertising will just get better on the web. Google's golden there.

Re: Ask HN: What's the worst thing that could happen to Google?

#9

Post by [deleted] » Mon, Nov 02, 2009, 3:08 AM UTC

patio11 wrote: post #6

What could ruin the Google profit party? Anti-trust regulation to split Google and AdSense/AdWords would probably figure as the Ultimate Nightmare Scenario. I don't necessarily think that it is likely, but then again I never saw an OS/browser tag-team as being a threat to world peace.

[deleted]

Re: Ask HN: What's the worst thing that could happen to Google?

#10

Post by chrischen » Mon, Nov 02, 2009, 3:10 AM UTC

It is trivial to switch search engines physically, but not necessarily psychologically. Plus you could easily switch, I switch occasionally, but to permanently shifting your usage trend is tougher.