We are contemplating purchasing a house as our primary residence. We have been life long renters but fortunately now in a position where we can afford the downpayment and monthly mortgage even at the current higher rates. However the macroeconomic numbers and tech layoff news are making me uncomfortable. On the flip side the house prices have come down ~20% in my city. The prices might go up and outprice me from purchasing a house in a desirable location. Am I making a hasty decision in the current market?
Ask HN: Is it a good time to buy a house?
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Re: Ask HN: Is it a good time to buy a house?
#2We are looking at important MA breaches, an inverse H&S on the S&P (maybe), and potential/ongoing melt-up scenario in markets right now.
You are right to wonder how things will go, because everybody's wondering. You may indeed miss out on big moves if you wait. But also maybe things will stall out and take forever to move up again.
I'd go to localized specifics in your scenario. I'd look for comparative value in a specific home purchase, compare to averages or moving averages of prices _in your area_ and then decide what's a good value from opportunity to opportunity.
Identify your buy-in range, make some offers, see how things go. But I'd keep it very specific and buy something you like at what seems like a good price, all things considered.
I'd stay away from trying to call macro trends because there's not much traction there right now. It could help to look at historical price action in your city though.
Re: Ask HN: Is it a good time to buy a house?
#3We are looking at important MA breaches, an inverse H&S on the S&P (maybe), and potential/ongoing melt-up scenario in markets right now. You are right to wonder how things will go, because everybody's wondering. You may indeed miss out on big moves if you wait. But also maybe things will stall out and take forever to move up again. I'd go to localized specifics in your scenario. I'd look for comparative value in a sp…
you're overthinking it and drowning the discussion in jargon
its very simple - rates are higher, they are going higher still, and they are going to stay high
homes will be a minimum 20% cheaper in 18 months
the Fed is completely focused on reducing asset prices, and they have the tools to produce the outcome they want
Re: Ask HN: Is it a good time to buy a house?
#4Layoffs are concerning. How big a pad would you have if you buy the house? Can you live without income for a few months? (You have the same problem with renting, except that you probably have a bigger pad in that case, since you haven't forked out the down payment.)
Are you in a town with a strong tech sector? If you lose your job, how hard is it going to be to find another one? (Harder if ten thousand other tech workers are looking at the same time...)
Me personally, if after the down payment I had a big enough pad to ride out several months if I got laid off, I'd probably go ahead and buy. But I am not a financial advisor, just some rando on the net...
Re: Ask HN: Is it a good time to buy a house?
#5My understanding is almost always yes if you can afford it and want to own a house. If the prices go down, you can refinance and pay less. If the prices go up, you’ve already bought the house so it’s just free money.
If you have a good emergency fund layoffs can be managed.
Re: Ask HN: Is it a good time to buy a house?
#6My understanding is almost always yes if you can afford it and want to own a house. If the prices go down, you can refinance and pay less. If the prices go up, you’ve already bought the house so it’s just free money. If you have a good emergency fund layoffs can be managed.
if prices go down you can’t just refinance and pay less. refinancing requires paying out the old mortgage. so that doesn’t check out if prices are down.
if interest rates go down you can refinance.
it’s not a zero risk purchase. the price going down means you’ve lost value but your loan value stays the same.
Re: Ask HN: Is it a good time to buy a house?
#7We are looking at important MA breaches, an inverse H&S on the S&P (maybe), and potential/ongoing melt-up scenario in markets right now. You are right to wonder how things will go, because everybody's wondering. You may indeed miss out on big moves if you wait. But also maybe things will stall out and take forever to move up again. I'd go to localized specifics in your scenario. I'd look for comparative value in a sp…
you're overthinking it and drowning the discussion in jargon its very simple - rates are higher, they are going higher still, and they are going to stay high homes will be a minimum 20% cheaper in 18 months the Fed is completely focused on reducing asset prices, and they have the tools to produce the outcome they want
Yeah ill believe it when I see it. When eggs double in price in 2 weeks, its hard to believe houses are going to decrease in price over 18 months.
Maybe in real terms when accounting for inflation but the actual dollar value seems destined to go up in spite of interest rates
Re: Ask HN: Is it a good time to buy a house?
#8Regardless of the market condition and even your own situation, do not buy a house if you don't plan to live in for at least 7-10 years. Anything less, your risk is much higher in general.
Re: Ask HN: Is it a good time to buy a house?
#9We are looking at important MA breaches, an inverse H&S on the S&P (maybe), and potential/ongoing melt-up scenario in markets right now. You are right to wonder how things will go, because everybody's wondering. You may indeed miss out on big moves if you wait. But also maybe things will stall out and take forever to move up again. I'd go to localized specifics in your scenario. I'd look for comparative value in a sp…
you're overthinking it and drowning the discussion in jargon its very simple - rates are higher, they are going higher still, and they are going to stay high homes will be a minimum 20% cheaper in 18 months the Fed is completely focused on reducing asset prices, and they have the tools to produce the outcome they want
I think the Fed are focused on stabilizing prices, not getting them to go down. Deflation is an entirely different beast than inflation and the Fed certainly does not want to deal with that.
Re: Ask HN: Is it a good time to buy a house?
#10Regardless of the market condition and even your own situation, do not buy a house if you don't plan to live in for at least 7-10 years. Anything less, your risk is much higher in general.
Having bought and then moved a couple times before even 5 years in a house, definitely follow this advice. You might see a mortgage payment that is less or equal than your rent but that doesn't account for buying/repairing roof, HVAC, plumbing, lighting and other maintenance let alone utilities being higher. Then throw in that its your own space now so all those things you want to do to personalize like paint, furniture, fixture changes, etc.
I see people complain about renting all the time but in one scenario we rented in between houses and it was such a huge stress relief to just call maintenance and plop my ass on the couch.