I picked up this comment from a HN user in another thread but it got no traction, seeing Germany drag it's feet on sending arms and Zelensky's recent comments about blood money I think it's especially relevant... "seeing as we're heading into spring, seeing Germany has quite a wealthy economy and QOL, that many if not most workers get 5 weeks of holiday, the chip shortage is leading to slowdowns in the automotive industry etc... why doesn't the government just go cold turkey, give people a month or 2 free holidays while drastically reducing public lighting, telling businesses to stop heating their premises at night etc etc... I mean we had a dress rehearsal 2 years ago with the onset of Covid, this would be better ,for a good cause, probably give a boost to domestic spending and send a f...U to the rest of the world saying we too can think outside of the box :-)"
I know it may seem naive, but how so?
Ask HN: Why can't Germany just go cold turkey and turn off Russian Gas?
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Re: Ask HN: Why can't Germany just go cold turkey and turn off Russian Gas?
#232% of their gas power comes from Russian gas. Covids economic shock would be nothing by comparison. French nukes running 24/7 could not make up the shortfall, there would be more than a small% contraction in the economy. Probably, technically a recession would follow. Aside from electricity manufacturing is a direct consumer, gas is feedstock for fertiliser, powers kilns and bakeries and heaps of industry directly.
They could. Some argue they should. But they won't. I'm thousands of km away, I wish they would but I don't have to suffer the consequences in terms of unemployment, economic damage, and loss of life and livelihood.
Re: Ask HN: Why can't Germany just go cold turkey and turn off Russian Gas?
#332% of their gas power comes from Russian gas. Covids economic shock would be nothing by comparison. French nukes running 24/7 could not make up the shortfall, there would be more than a small% contraction in the economy. Probably, technically a recession would follow. Aside from electricity manufacturing is a direct consumer, gas is feedstock for fertiliser, powers kilns and bakeries and heaps of industry directly.…
The immediate ramifications of shutting off Russian gas would be akin to 1920’s depression. And German economy going to shit means the rest of Europe and Euro itself tanking.
Re: Ask HN: Why can't Germany just go cold turkey and turn off Russian Gas?
#4They have to balance the certainty of russian blackmail over supply with the short and medium-term cost.
Only 20% of electricity generation in germany is from gas, even though russia supplies around half that, it's not going to be armageddon. Gas from other sources will take up the slack in the medium term. In the short term gas-specific consumers will have some problems.
Re: Ask HN: Why can't Germany just go cold turkey and turn off Russian Gas?
#532% of their gas power comes from Russian gas. Covids economic shock would be nothing by comparison. French nukes running 24/7 could not make up the shortfall, there would be more than a small% contraction in the economy. Probably, technically a recession would follow. Aside from electricity manufacturing is a direct consumer, gas is feedstock for fertiliser, powers kilns and bakeries and heaps of industry directly.…
The immediate ramifications of shutting off Russian gas would be akin to 1920’s depression. And German economy going to shit means the rest of Europe and Euro itself tanking.
There are other sources of power and gas... Biden said he will 'surge' supplies to Europe... in the medium term they can just write russia out of the equation and stop bankrolling the war.
Re: Ask HN: Why can't Germany just go cold turkey and turn off Russian Gas?
#6Earlier quoted context omitted.
The immediate ramifications of shutting off Russian gas would be akin to 1920’s depression. And German economy going to shit means the rest of Europe and Euro itself tanking.
There are other sources of power and gas... Biden said he will 'surge' supplies to Europe... in the medium term they can just write russia out of the equation and stop bankrolling the war.
They have to recommission gas handling facilities, industrial plant takes months to bring back from mothballing and worldwide gas consumption is longterm contracts. Even just hiring a gas tanker takes months.
If they declare force majure and seized a boat to ship now, there would be hell to pay for some other consumer.
Re: Ask HN: Why can't Germany just go cold turkey and turn off Russian Gas?
#7They have to balance the certainty of russian blackmail over supply with the short and medium-term cost. Only 20% of electricity generation in germany is from gas, even though russia supplies around half that, it's not going to be armageddon. Gas from other sources will take up the slack in the medium term. In the short term gas-specific consumers will have some problems.
All gas worldwide is on multi year forward contract as is the tankers. They have to bring industrial plant back from mothballing at ports, there is no gas inside of 3-4 months and possibly longer.
Re: Ask HN: Why can't Germany just go cold turkey and turn off Russian Gas?
#8At this point 'cold turkey' would be like quitting cigarettes because you have stage 4 lung cancer.
Germany is not special. Every Western country is addicted to fossil fuels, because our economic system is built on unsustainable consumption. We have known for (at least) a generation that we must stop burning fossil fuels to prevent catastrophic climate change. If the system can't manage that, then I am not surprised that it can't turn off Russian gas to prevent genocide.
We could easily reduce our energy requirements (enough to defund Russia, but it's too late on the climate front!) by simply doing less non-essential stuff. Invest in local food security, health care, sustainable housing, and renewable energy ... and starve everything else.
... but since responsible, managed economic degrowth is capitalist heresy, here we are, paying Russia to holocaust* their neighbours while we burn their gas and seal our fate.
(*I first heard 'holocaust' used as a verb by Vitali Klitschko. This guy Englishes.)
Re: Ask HN: Why can't Germany just go cold turkey and turn off Russian Gas?
#9Two days ago on MR: “ That’s why the six nuclear reactors that were operating in Germany in 2021 generated 80% as much power as all the gas power plants…”
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2022/04/ge...
Re: Ask HN: Why can't Germany just go cold turkey and turn off Russian Gas?
#10The vast majority of power usage comes from Industry, not people in their homes, or office lighting left on overnight
Cold turkey would be a literal disaster.