Live data from Hacker News

Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

news.ycombinator.com

1–10 of 1001 posts

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#7
Chinar:

2022 — the last of political opposition to Xi makes its bid for power, it fails with some noise, and we see a compromise establishment for the rest of Xi's life

2022 — the last of political opposition to Xi makes its bid for power, it fails miserably, and Xi secures claim to absolute power, and reigns Brezhnev style to his last breath

EU:

Coming of Trump alike in Germany, or Austria is not unlikely.

If it comes to that, EU may well be under mortal threat

Russia:

Some orchestrated "transition" to some high profile mayor like Sobanin happens, but nothing really changes.

Alternative? Military insurrection by officers being tired of being sent to god forsaken places on whims of mafia boys.

USA:

Really no idea — your country has been defying common sense for 2 decades straight. Understanding America is beyond me.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#8
I predict Apple/Google/Amazon/Facebook are only going to get more valuable and bigger. The previous idea that there are limits to growth that have already been reached... don't apply anymore.

Not because they're any smarter than anyone else, but they're able to continuing buying and absorbing any and all competitive threats. And that the "moat" of initial costs to compete with them in existing areas is too high. (E.g. try building your own search engine.)

And regulation and antitrust law isn't going to make a dent because any potential legal principles against it won't be convincing enough to the average citizen, so there won't be any particularly convincing legislative proposals for support in Congress to coalesce around. (It's easy to say "break up Facebook!" It's really, really hard to come up with a reasonable generic law that results in breaking up the "too big" companies without harming the "good" companies, and breaking them up in reasonable ways.)

I don't think they're going to get any more "evil". They're just going to keep expanding into more and more valuable products/markets -- like Apple has with wearables, or Google has with Cloud, or Amazon with TV shows.

(I'm not saying whether this is good or bad -- I just think it's what will happen.)

Post reply on HN