70% of AI revenue comes from OpenAI and Anthropic [video]
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Re: 70% of AI revenue comes from OpenAI and Anthropic [video]
#2Ai revenue or datacenter/compute revenue? There's a lot of circular financing right now and there's a pretty obvious bubble for sure but I haven't been able to figure out what exactly this guy's argument is after seeing it a few times recently. Like yeah most ai datacenter spend is those two companies - that's pretty standard monopoly (or monopsony for the cloud providers) dynamics. If you're saying some major percentage of all ai related spending is openai and anthropic spending money on compute - well that's not exactly right because Google etc are also spending money on building datacenters (that's not ai spend in this definition? WTF is ai revenue exactly?) - and that's just pretty much indicating it's a frothy market with two unprofitable companies at the center with huge cogs? We knew that already.
Feels like they want to make a clean headline grabbing argument about how "70% of all the spending is actually just these two companies" and are ending up with a really muddled headline that's just like yeah that's how monopoloies and duopolies work. When there's a lot more insidious circular complicated shenanigans going on that gets collapsed by this framing.
Re: 70% of AI revenue comes from OpenAI and Anthropic [video]
#3Ai revenue or datacenter/compute revenue? There's a lot of circular financing right now and there's a pretty obvious bubble for sure but I haven't been able to figure out what exactly this guy's argument is after seeing it a few times recently. Like yeah most ai datacenter spend is those two companies - that's pretty standard monopoly (or monopsony for the cloud providers) dynamics. If you're saying some major percen…
>> When there's a lot more insidious circular complicated shenanigans going on that gets collapsed by this framing.
All that is discussed in the video, plus those distinctions. And most important, that AI revenue would not exist...if OpenAI and Anthropic would not be funded, by the same Amazon, Google and Microsoft they are buying it from!
We now have several voices saying the same:
"Aswath Damodaran: Big Tech Has No Idea How AI Pays Off" - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49229981
"Why Wall Street Is Ignoring Big Tech's Debt" - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49230630
Re: 70% of AI revenue comes from OpenAI and Anthropic [video]
#4Wasn't it always seen as a "winner takes all" business?
Re: 70% of AI revenue comes from OpenAI and Anthropic [video]
#5Wasn't it always seen as a "winner takes all" business?
There is no "all", that's the point. There is no pot of gold at the end of the AI rainbow.
Re: 70% of AI revenue comes from OpenAI and Anthropic [video]
#6Ai revenue or datacenter/compute revenue? There's a lot of circular financing right now and there's a pretty obvious bubble for sure but I haven't been able to figure out what exactly this guy's argument is after seeing it a few times recently. Like yeah most ai datacenter spend is those two companies - that's pretty standard monopoly (or monopsony for the cloud providers) dynamics. If you're saying some major percen…
The general concern (from him and others) is that the cloud providers are making extremely large capex commitments (borrowing, going cashflow negative) to satisfy demand from a small number of customers who may not be able to pay them.
Re: 70% of AI revenue comes from OpenAI and Anthropic [video]
#7Ai revenue or datacenter/compute revenue? There's a lot of circular financing right now and there's a pretty obvious bubble for sure but I haven't been able to figure out what exactly this guy's argument is after seeing it a few times recently. Like yeah most ai datacenter spend is those two companies - that's pretty standard monopoly (or monopsony for the cloud providers) dynamics. If you're saying some major percen…
One interpretation is that so called profitability is one 15 minute phone call between OpenAI and Anthropic to increase prices. If you think that antitrust is the reason that this won't happen, you've stated a speculation. Not a certainty.
Re: 70% of AI revenue comes from OpenAI and Anthropic [video]
#8I don't know much about this guy other than every time I see him on here he has an axe to grind about AI
Re: 70% of AI revenue comes from OpenAI and Anthropic [video]
#9Re: 70% of AI revenue comes from OpenAI and Anthropic [video]
#10Wasn't it always seen as a "winner takes all" business?
If there was one winner then that would make a lot of people very angry.