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70% of AI revenue comes from OpenAI and Anthropic [video]

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Re: 70% of AI revenue comes from OpenAI and Anthropic [video]

#91

Post by dwohnitmok »

beepbooptheory wrote: post #89
ElProlactin wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is that you can't be considered a credible critic of this stuff when you either don't understand accounting or are dishonest to make a point. Zitron makes too many "mistakes" like this to be taken seriously. In other words, he just isn't the right person to make the "huge AI bubble" argument because he doesn't understand (or he's being dishonest about) the financials. I wouldn't consider OpenAI's financia…

I guess I am just in a different world here... I didn't realize the stakes were about who is the one who is gonna take up the mantle of having the platform and voice to make one argument or another, and I guess there is maybe some cultural context here I am missing. Like I just don't know how to trace this almost moralistic fixation everyone has just about this particular guy.. Everyday we see articles exactly like h…

> Everyday we see articles exactly like his by different people (or at least I do), but none attract the same kind of distinct attention.

Who else does a detailed financial breakdown like Zitron and thinks things are as corrupt/fishy as him (in particular make specific claims about certain unexplained sums of money)? All the articles I see ultimately just trace back to Zitron. Curious who else you've found.

Re: 70% of AI revenue comes from OpenAI and Anthropic [video]

#92

Post by etempleton »

jatins wrote: post #57

Ed wrote a post back in 2024 where he claimed OpenAI would fail in 2 years if they didn’t do the, seemingly impossible at that time, things like raising more money than any company before etc. And OpenAI did all of that and is still alive today. Would be good to know this context because if you are out there boldly making doomer predictions month after month then you should also rate your previous ones. Because one d…

Timing is always next to impossible to predict. Open AI has managed to continue to find investors and as long as they continue to do that they will be around no matter how much money they lose.

Re: 70% of AI revenue comes from OpenAI and Anthropic [video]

#93

Post by ElProlactin »

beepbooptheory wrote: post #89
ElProlactin wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is that you can't be considered a credible critic of this stuff when you either don't understand accounting or are dishonest to make a point. Zitron makes too many "mistakes" like this to be taken seriously. In other words, he just isn't the right person to make the "huge AI bubble" argument because he doesn't understand (or he's being dishonest about) the financials. I wouldn't consider OpenAI's financia…

I guess I am just in a different world here... I didn't realize the stakes were about who is the one who is gonna take up the mantle of having the platform and voice to make one argument or another, and I guess there is maybe some cultural context here I am missing. Like I just don't know how to trace this almost moralistic fixation everyone has just about this particular guy.. Everyday we see articles exactly like h…

I really don't understand your comment.

Zitron has become the poster boy for the "AI bubble". His hyperbolic claims make for good content, which I presume is why he gets such a large platform, but they pollute the dialog and make it harder for people to have meaningful conversations about what's going on.

Many discussions of the AI market largely mirror what he says. People who don't understanding basic accounting and who haven't taken the time to educate themselves making bombastic claims about 2008-style bubbles, fraud, etc.

So we end up with discussions like this: simple basic consolidation accounting is misread as fraud. Malinvestment using little to no leverage is predicted to produce financial crises that were caused by 10x and higher leverage. And so on.

So to answer your question ("why should we think he will be the one conquering the narrative here"): his claims already have.

Re: 70% of AI revenue comes from OpenAI and Anthropic [video]

#94

Post by ElProlactin »

dwohnitmok wrote: post #91
beepbooptheory wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess I am just in a different world here... I didn't realize the stakes were about who is the one who is gonna take up the mantle of having the platform and voice to make one argument or another, and I guess there is maybe some cultural context here I am missing. Like I just don't know how to trace this almost moralistic fixation everyone has just about this particular guy.. Everyday we see articles exactly like h…

> Everyday we see articles exactly like his by different people (or at least I do), but none attract the same kind of distinct attention. Who else does a detailed financial breakdown like Zitron and thinks things are as corrupt/fishy as him (in particular make specific claims about certain unexplained sums of money)? All the articles I see ultimately just trace back to Zitron. Curious who else you've found.

> ... detailed financial breakdown like Zitron...

Except his financial breakdowns almost always get basic points wrong, treat as mysteries things that are clear, cast simple accounting practices in a conspiratorial light, etc.

He's not an accountant or financial analyst and it seems obvious to me that he doesn't even care to educate himself.

Re: 70% of AI revenue comes from OpenAI and Anthropic [video]

#95

Post by etempleton »

dgellow wrote: post #36
grey-area wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They’re also at the centre of a lot of circular deals, nvidia in particular is notorious for it and still doing it. From last month: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-27/nvidia-s-... Or from 2025: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/15/a-guide-to-1-trillion-worth-...

I know, but NVIDIA is also the main beneficiary from that whole scheme, what they get out of it is actual cash. They hyperscalers have a more complicated role though

Nvidia is basically the house loaning money to the gamblers. They don’t care if the gamblers win or lose. They just care that people keep playing.

Re: 70% of AI revenue comes from OpenAI and Anthropic [video]

#96

Post by dwohnitmok »

ElProlactin wrote: post #94
dwohnitmok wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Everyday we see articles exactly like his by different people (or at least I do), but none attract the same kind of distinct attention. Who else does a detailed financial breakdown like Zitron and thinks things are as corrupt/fishy as him (in particular make specific claims about certain unexplained sums of money)? All the articles I see ultimately just trace back to Zitron. Curious who else you've found.

> ... detailed financial breakdown like Zitron... Except his financial breakdowns almost always get basic points wrong, treat as mysteries things that are clear, cast simple accounting practices in a conspiratorial light, etc. He's not an accountant or financial analyst and it seems obvious to me that he doesn't even care to educate himself.

Sure. I'm mainly curious who beepbooptheory is thinking of.

Re: 70% of AI revenue comes from OpenAI and Anthropic [video]

#97

Post by jatins »

root-parent wrote: post #69
jatins wrote: post #57

Ed wrote a post back in 2024 where he claimed OpenAI would fail in 2 years if they didn’t do the, seemingly impossible at that time, things like raising more money than any company before etc. And OpenAI did all of that and is still alive today. Would be good to know this context because if you are out there boldly making doomer predictions month after month then you should also rate your previous ones. Because one d…

So the core of your comment is...."the bubble has not burst yet, therefore there is no unsustainable bubble" ?

Core of my comment is 1/ being wrong on timing is being wrong 2/ There is no clear definition of bubble burst. Public markets were down 10% in July and many stocks like SNDK fell 50% -- is this a bubble burst?

Re: 70% of AI revenue comes from OpenAI and Anthropic [video]

#98

Post by gfrecvh »

etempleton wrote: post #90
tim333 wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm with you on Zitron being a bit challenged in the knowing what he's talking about department. I think he's implying the money in AI is all spending from OpenAI+Anthropic who get it from investors. But those two have annualized revenue of about $26bn and $74bn or about $100bn total which presumably represents actual customer demand for the product. That's $100bn revenue on about $1tn capex so far which isn't enough…

Microsoft and others report their stake in Open AI as net income. Open AI and others revenue comes in large part from large customers like Microsoft. Nvidia makes large investments into Open AI, SpaceX, and core weave and in return they buy Nvidia hardware. It is all very circular. And at the same time it appears these companies have near zero moat. I think it is foolish to not question how big this business really i…

> Open AI and others revenue comes in large part from large customers like Microsoft.

Could you provide a citation for this?

Re: 70% of AI revenue comes from OpenAI and Anthropic [video]

#99

Post by gfrecvh »

gfrecvh wrote: post #98
etempleton wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Microsoft and others report their stake in Open AI as net income. Open AI and others revenue comes in large part from large customers like Microsoft. Nvidia makes large investments into Open AI, SpaceX, and core weave and in return they buy Nvidia hardware. It is all very circular. And at the same time it appears these companies have near zero moat. I think it is foolish to not question how big this business really i…

> Open AI and others revenue comes in large part from large customers like Microsoft. Could you provide a citation for this?

I mean obviously everything being equal, a firm with 10x more developers might spend 10x. But why is that noteworthy, and why does that enter the estimation of how large the industry is? It might enter the calculation of how much pricing leverage openAI and anthropic might have, but that's not what he actually said, he talked about the industry size.

Re: 70% of AI revenue comes from OpenAI and Anthropic [video]

#100

Post by beepbooptheory »

dwohnitmok wrote: post #91
beepbooptheory wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess I am just in a different world here... I didn't realize the stakes were about who is the one who is gonna take up the mantle of having the platform and voice to make one argument or another, and I guess there is maybe some cultural context here I am missing. Like I just don't know how to trace this almost moralistic fixation everyone has just about this particular guy.. Everyday we see articles exactly like h…

> Everyday we see articles exactly like his by different people (or at least I do), but none attract the same kind of distinct attention. Who else does a detailed financial breakdown like Zitron and thinks things are as corrupt/fishy as him (in particular make specific claims about certain unexplained sums of money)? All the articles I see ultimately just trace back to Zitron. Curious who else you've found.

Feels maybe a little specific but I have seen a number of pieces just on HN in the past month that feel at least adjacent:

- https://io-fund.com/ai-stocks/nvidia-coreweave-nebius-circul...

- https://archive.ph/kTjLr

- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-05/microsoft...

Cory Doctorow's feed gives me some pretty diverse but certainly Zitron-adjacent articles every week, one example: https://pluralistic.net/2026/08/01/dare-snot

Oh this guy! https://prospect.org/2026/08/03/ai-bailout-could-be-baked-in...

I can hear the response now that these are all not exactly repeating what Zitron is saying, but I will just leave it up to you all to decide if that is a good faith thing to retort here or not :). Godspeed!

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