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China is now the world's greatest oil power

economist.com

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Re: China is now the world's greatest oil power

#31

Post by nextaccountic »

tristanj wrote: post #10
WarmWash wrote: post #6

The most fascinating thing about this is how oil futures markets were able to capture this while the media was endlessly blasting stories about oil shortages. Anyone paying attention to oil prices since the start of the war has been confused about the total disconnect between oil future and the existential situation on the ground. Even the media seemed mystified by this. Well, now we all know the answer.

No, it's because oil is still transiting the strait. A select group of tankers has been bypassing the Iranian "blockade" and ferrying oil across for months now. > US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Wednesday that the American military continues to escort barrels through Hormuz, and that about 13 million barrels a day are leaving the Gulf — half through the strait and half via bypass pipelines. US Central Command s…

> No, it's because oil is still transiting the strait.

This Youtuber did a napkin math to show this effect, plus the land pipeline and other supply increases can't be the sole explanation https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BkA0bkb6ZO0

There was a sharp decrease in demand too, and China did it without domestic oil shortages

Re: China is now the world's greatest oil power

#32

Post by ApolloFortyNine »

Gys wrote: post #9
ApolloFortyNine wrote: post #5

China = clicks nowadays I guess? The US produces more oil products than anyone else by a large margin [1] and extracts more than anyone else [2]. [1] https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=709&t=6 [2] https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/crude-oil-producti...

> This ability to turn oil demand on and off, ostensibly at low economic cost, allows the world’s biggest oil importer to move prices just as the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (opec) and its allies have long done through their control of half of global output. This is not about production. You should read the article and not only the title.

Maybe you should accept 'greatest oil power' as fact?

It's this one publications opinion. At best.

And it's essentially unheard of.

Re: China is now the world's greatest oil power

#33

Post by tristanj »

nextaccountic wrote: post #31
tristanj wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, it's because oil is still transiting the strait. A select group of tankers has been bypassing the Iranian "blockade" and ferrying oil across for months now. > US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Wednesday that the American military continues to escort barrels through Hormuz, and that about 13 million barrels a day are leaving the Gulf — half through the strait and half via bypass pipelines. US Central Command s…

> No, it's because oil is still transiting the strait. This Youtuber did a napkin math to show this effect, plus the land pipeline and other supply increases can't be the sole explanation https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BkA0bkb6ZO0 There was a sharp decrease in demand too, and China did it without domestic oil shortages

That author greatly overstates China’s role as the single savior and doesn't address the covert fleet of tankers doing daily blockade runs.

He (wrongly) attributes everything to China.

Re: China is now the world's greatest oil power

#34

Post by [deleted] »

edaemon wrote: post #26
tristanj wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, it's because oil is still transiting the strait. A select group of tankers has been bypassing the Iranian "blockade" and ferrying oil across for months now. > US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Wednesday that the American military continues to escort barrels through Hormuz, and that about 13 million barrels a day are leaving the Gulf — half through the strait and half via bypass pipelines. US Central Command s…

That doesn't fully explain it, the amount of oil making it through the strait is a small fraction (less than 25%) of the amount that normally flows through there.

[deleted]

Re: China is now the world's greatest oil power

#35

Post by laughing_man »

jayd16 wrote: post #24
chasil wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It might be said that this article casts China as a "super capacitor" in that it can store and release massive quantities of oil at will. It also has its own domestic oil production of 4.3 million barrels per day.

Is the crux of this article just that the Chinese oil reserve is 2x the capacity of the US oil reserve? Is there anything more to it than that?

Which makes sense. The US is a net oil exporter -- in a strategic emergency the US will still have access to oil. China will want to have a much larger buffer, since its economy requires oil from other countries.

Re: China is now the world's greatest oil power

#36

Post by tristanj »

edaemon wrote: post #26
tristanj wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, it's because oil is still transiting the strait. A select group of tankers has been bypassing the Iranian "blockade" and ferrying oil across for months now. > US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Wednesday that the American military continues to escort barrels through Hormuz, and that about 13 million barrels a day are leaving the Gulf — half through the strait and half via bypass pipelines. US Central Command s…

That doesn't fully explain it, the amount of oil making it through the strait is a small fraction (less than 25%) of the amount that normally flows through there.

Exports from the gulf are only down to 13 million barrels/day from 20 million barrels/day. Gulf exporters are not running at 25% capacity.

Re: China is now the world's greatest oil power

#37

Post by defrost »

tristanj wrote: post #33
nextaccountic wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> No, it's because oil is still transiting the strait. This Youtuber did a napkin math to show this effect, plus the land pipeline and other supply increases can't be the sole explanation https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BkA0bkb6ZO0 There was a sharp decrease in demand too, and China did it without domestic oil shortages

That author greatly overstates China’s role as the single savior and doesn't address the covert fleet of tankers doing daily blockade runs. He (wrongly) attributes everything to China.

> attributes everything to China

aside from:

  petro-monarchs in Abu Dhabi and Riyadh [...] Ministers in Washington and Tokyo [...] state-led rationing in poorer countries
as listed in the first paragraph.

Re: China is now the world's greatest oil power

#38

Post by edaemon »

tristanj wrote: post #36
edaemon wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That doesn't fully explain it, the amount of oil making it through the strait is a small fraction (less than 25%) of the amount that normally flows through there.

Exports from the gulf are only down to 13 million barrels/day from 20 million barrels/day. Gulf exporters are not running at 25% capacity.

Right, but oil transiting the strait is down below 25% of its normal amount.
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