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U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

nbcnews.com

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Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

#21

Post by ceejayoz »

jcranmer wrote: post #19
ceejayoz wrote: post #5

Note, also: > In yet another troubling sign for the labor market, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said that it revised down the prior two months by a combined 103,000. May’s jobs total was cut by 66,000 to 129,000 total jobs added, while June’s total was lowered by 37,000 to a total gain of 57,000.

One of the reaction threads I saw elsewhere on social media pointed out the response rates for the surveys that come up with these numbers is plummeting--about a decade ago, we had ~85% response rate, now we're done to ~65% response rate. So the initial quality of these numbers is probably getting a lot worse.

https://xcancel.com/ernietedeschi/status/1951721848393105573 indicates they've been getting better over time.

I'd suspect better computing helps a lot here.

Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

#22

Post by jcranmer »

ceejayoz wrote: post #21
jcranmer wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One of the reaction threads I saw elsewhere on social media pointed out the response rates for the surveys that come up with these numbers is plummeting--about a decade ago, we had ~85% response rate, now we're done to ~65% response rate. So the initial quality of these numbers is probably getting a lot worse.

https://xcancel.com/ernietedeschi/status/1951721848393105573 indicates they've been getting better over time. I'd suspect better computing helps a lot here.

Cut that graph to the last decade, and they don't look like they've been getting better.

Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

#25

Post by jmuguy »

forlorn_mammoth wrote: post #17

What is also interesting is that the only sector thad added jobs was health care.

This has been the case in several recent reports. It really ought to put to bed the idea that Trump was somehow going to be "good for business" and bring back manufacturing. At best all he's done is create a ton of uncertainty, at worst he's actively harmed massive swaths of American businesses with tariffs, war, and gutting the federal workforce and programs that indirectly supported a ton of businesses.

Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

#26

Post by ceejayoz »

jcranmer wrote: post #22
ceejayoz wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://xcancel.com/ernietedeschi/status/1951721848393105573 indicates they've been getting better over time. I'd suspect better computing helps a lot here.

Cut that graph to the last decade, and they don't look like they've been getting better.

The COVID era is likely to be an outlier in many things.

Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

#27

Post by JumpCrisscross »

ceejayoz wrote: post #18
travisgriggs wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honest ask because I’ve not generally paid attention… Is it the case that the numbers always appear more optimistic, and then are revised to be more pessimistic values? Or is it just that the original numbers are off and are revised? Does that make sense?

They move in both directions regularly, typically in the direction the economic situation is moving at the time. Chart: https://xcancel.com/ernietedeschi/status/1951721848393105573

> They move in both directions regularly, typically in the direction the economic situation is moving

And for good reason! These are surveys. The easiest respondents are those saying “no change.” The latest responses, the ones who had the biggest change. In a booming economy, the biggest changes will be hires. In a troubled one, the biggest changes will be those doing lay-offs.

Add to that: the BLS tries to correct for this effect. Which means at the moment the economy turns, its corrections skew the wrong way. (On the whole, per the above chart, the figures are getting better over time.)

Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

#29

Post by eigenspace »

forlorn_mammoth wrote: post #17

What is also interesting is that the only sector thad added jobs was health care.

Healthcare has consistently been one of the biggest drivers of US GDP and job growth numbers for years now.

This is one of the major things that has helped explain why US consumer sentiment has been so out of step with headline numbers like employment, consumer spending, and GDP.

It also helps explain why there's so many economists are saying they see limited evidence of a "K-shaped economy", and say they see positive numbers throughout the distribution. It's very difficult to choose not to buy healthcare.

Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

#30

Post by Jeremy1026 »

1over137 wrote: post #28

Meanwhile Canada added 75,000 new jobs in July. Perhaps Trump's tariff scheme is not working so well after all. https://www.cbc.ca/lite/story/9.7299225

No one with at least two brain cells to rub together thought the tariffs was going to make anything better.
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