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2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

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Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#21

Isn't scalping illegal in some countries?

Isn't scalping a term used for tickets? Also, these companies supposedly intend to actually use the RAM they ordered, not reselling at some inflated price. It's all fair game IMHO, except the elephant in the room which is that the AI company bubble might pop.

Then we'll have a lot of cheap RAM.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#24
Lame: Fight the war on general computation by spending decades pushing elaborate technical standards for locking down bootloaders, try to convince society why we need device attestation and hardware-bound keys, gradually establish devices without root access as the norm, get into constant skirmishes with free software and privacy advocates, get drawn into unpleasant political quagmires, etc etc

Game: Just buy up all the RAM...

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#25
Amazon has implemented a password system for RAM delivery. You're supposed to give a password to the deliverer before taking delivery of the RAM, and you're not supposed to send the password over the phone at all (although the Amazon delivery guy still called me and asked for it over the phone).

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#26
post #7

All those devs who were saying "ram is cheap" BTFO.

That's tech... Moore Law was steadily going until raw CPU got stuck for a few years, switching from single core to multicore then heterogeneous cpus, all those requiring to rewrite software in a scalable manner and then consider newer schedulers switching between performance/efficiency cores and changing CPU freqs. Also, you have Meta and Google investing in simplified performant versions of their stack for developin…

You know that Moore's law is about transistor count? What worked really well for CPU in eg the 1990s was Dennard scaling. That drove the Hz higher. And Dennard scaling is what stopped working.

Moore's law is alive and well.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#28
post #14

This hopefully helps mitigate the risk of putting more production capacity in place, which the Big 3 were not willing to do so far.

At this size, I think we have to start worrying about a 2008-type default risk. AI companies will have ordered all the RAM and paid some kind of deposit for that, but actually taking delivery and paying for it is still in the future and the sums of capital involved are extremely large.

What kind of default risk?

What we got in 2008 was central banks (eg Fed and ECB) willfully collapsing nominal GDP in their economies. Have a look at the dot-com bust or Black Monday for comparison.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#29
post #7

All those devs who were saying "ram is cheap" BTFO.

https://dam.stanford.edu/memory-prices.html

Pretty sure those devs were saying the same thing way before 2017 as well, which seems to be ~ the last time RAM was this expensive.

Now RAM in the cloud, now you're really paying the Java premium.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#30
post #20
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At this size, I think we have to start worrying about a 2008-type default risk. AI companies will have ordered all the RAM and paid some kind of deposit for that, but actually taking delivery and paying for it is still in the future and the sums of capital involved are extremely large.

That's the reason RAM companies aren't expanding. Worst case, they can sell their normal production to gamers.

Fail to deliver, and they get bankrupted...

Do deliver and they don't get paid because the buyer purchased with money that doesn't exist.

Lose-lose situation!

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