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70% of AI revenue comes from OpenAI and Anthropic [video]

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Re: 70% of AI revenue comes from OpenAI and Anthropic [video]

#11

Post by bvghnnxeyjbx »

doctorpangloss wrote: post #7
vikramkr wrote: post #2

Ai revenue or datacenter/compute revenue? There's a lot of circular financing right now and there's a pretty obvious bubble for sure but I haven't been able to figure out what exactly this guy's argument is after seeing it a few times recently. Like yeah most ai datacenter spend is those two companies - that's pretty standard monopoly (or monopsony for the cloud providers) dynamics. If you're saying some major percen…

One interpretation is that so called profitability is one 15 minute phone call between OpenAI and Anthropic to increase prices. If you think that antitrust is the reason that this won't happen, you've stated a speculation. Not a certainty.

there isn't enough demand to raise prices. OpenAI announced price CUTS recently and they are hilariously unprofitable already. Why would they be cutting prices if they have the ability to raise them? outside of this website and the ownership class everyone hates AI

Re: 70% of AI revenue comes from OpenAI and Anthropic [video]

#12

Post by reilly3000 »

I think this whole premise is ignoring the point that most decently sized companies want to and eventually will be running their own LLM workloads. Currently use cases are limited by scope and imagination, and predominantly focused on cost efficiency. Once a use case becomes a top line revenue driver budgets will become essentially only limited by ROI. There are some inference workloads that are unacceptable to send to the frontier labs for privacy reasons. Most of it will come from firms who want to productionalize their own fine-tunes. In any case, the market for inference is less than 1% of what it will be in 5-10 years. This whole notion that GPUs will be sitting idle en masse is ridiculous. People will just start running GPU databases if it becomes cost efficient.

Re: 70% of AI revenue comes from OpenAI and Anthropic [video]

#13

Post by ElProlactin »

"Because Goldman does this kind of nonsense."

Hilarious. You can agree or disagree with Zitron but he really has no business talking about Goldman Sachs. His posts are littered with evidence he has no ability to perform the type of financial analysis he thinks he does.

Re: 70% of AI revenue comes from OpenAI and Anthropic [video]

#14

Post by grey-area »

TZubiri wrote: post #9
sethops1 wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is no "all", that's the point. There is no pot of gold at the end of the AI rainbow.

There's a lot of money changing hands, at least that's a spoil isn't it? And if the music stops, someone is going to end up holding it.

Well a lot of money is being spent, but is a lot of money being made?

With circular deals it’s hard to tell.

Re: 70% of AI revenue comes from OpenAI and Anthropic [video]

#15

Post by re-thc »

lokar wrote: post #6
vikramkr wrote: post #2

Ai revenue or datacenter/compute revenue? There's a lot of circular financing right now and there's a pretty obvious bubble for sure but I haven't been able to figure out what exactly this guy's argument is after seeing it a few times recently. Like yeah most ai datacenter spend is those two companies - that's pretty standard monopoly (or monopsony for the cloud providers) dynamics. If you're saying some major percen…

The general concern (from him and others) is that the cloud providers are making extremely large capex commitments (borrowing, going cashflow negative) to satisfy demand from a small number of customers who may not be able to pay them.

> to satisfy demand from a small number of customers who may not be able to pay them

Because a lot of isn't real demand, e.g. given away for free or very very cheap.

Re: 70% of AI revenue comes from OpenAI and Anthropic [video]

#16

Post by iwontberude »

reilly3000 wrote: post #12

I think this whole premise is ignoring the point that most decently sized companies want to and eventually will be running their own LLM workloads. Currently use cases are limited by scope and imagination, and predominantly focused on cost efficiency. Once a use case becomes a top line revenue driver budgets will become essentially only limited by ROI. There are some inference workloads that are unacceptable to send…

[dead]

Re: 70% of AI revenue comes from OpenAI and Anthropic [video]

#17

Post by Ekaros »

bvghnnxeyjbx wrote: post #11
doctorpangloss wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One interpretation is that so called profitability is one 15 minute phone call between OpenAI and Anthropic to increase prices. If you think that antitrust is the reason that this won't happen, you've stated a speculation. Not a certainty.

there isn't enough demand to raise prices. OpenAI announced price CUTS recently and they are hilariously unprofitable already. Why would they be cutting prices if they have the ability to raise them? outside of this website and the ownership class everyone hates AI

And I am not even sure ownership class have any real understanding or opinion on AI. Just that it has been sold to them as something that will save wages and make money... If it does not or the narrative turns they will abandon it like any other idea they have been sold.

Re: 70% of AI revenue comes from OpenAI and Anthropic [video]

#18

Post by Reviving1514 »

reilly3000 wrote: post #12

I think this whole premise is ignoring the point that most decently sized companies want to and eventually will be running their own LLM workloads. Currently use cases are limited by scope and imagination, and predominantly focused on cost efficiency. Once a use case becomes a top line revenue driver budgets will become essentially only limited by ROI. There are some inference workloads that are unacceptable to send…

TIL about GPU databases. I did a bit if research but only found this one: https://github.com/bakks/virginian

What are the advantages of a GPU database?

Re: 70% of AI revenue comes from OpenAI and Anthropic [video]

#20

Post by reticulates »

reilly3000 wrote: post #12

I think this whole premise is ignoring the point that most decently sized companies want to and eventually will be running their own LLM workloads. Currently use cases are limited by scope and imagination, and predominantly focused on cost efficiency. Once a use case becomes a top line revenue driver budgets will become essentially only limited by ROI. There are some inference workloads that are unacceptable to send…

but this is just an absolute fantasy, what, exactly, will this compute be doing? Our lives are already deeply entwined with technology and use barely any compute. How could our lives become 100x more dependent on compute?

You can be thrilled by this exciting technology and all the possibilities it brings without thinking it is going to require this huge capital investment in GPUs. You could radically change billions of lives with a few dozen GPUs.

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