Live data from Hacker News

Analyzing data from Silicon Valley ventures and founders prosecuted for fraud

pubsonline.informs.org

71–80 of 102 posts

Re: Analyzing data from Silicon Valley ventures and founders prosecuted for fraud

#71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is nontraditional? Seems like it could be even more rife with fraud with lower oversight.

Probably a bad qualifier. Maybe non-VC would have been better. Myself and my co-founder are trying to raise via a syndicate of like-minded investors/angels in lieue of the "traditional" VC dance.

This is where PE came from originally, but then scaled to commercial bank / pension fund levels of investment. At least VC and Founders are aligned and honest about their goals (to the moon!); I've seen PE destroy more solid / non-rocketship businesses than VC

Re: Analyzing data from Silicon Valley ventures and founders prosecuted for fraud

#72
post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It wouldn't have worked, period. You can't use capillary blood for the kind of blood tests they were claiming to. It's statistically impossible because the sample isn't big enough and drawing more capillary blood doesn't improve the SNR. Two samples taken at the same time from different spots on the same finger can yield wildly different results. Everyone in diagnostic medicine knows this (they've been dealing with t…

It’s not a lack of due diligence, it’s a lack of prosecution of fraud. They think they can just unload to some sucker for a big payday. See also the entirety of cryptocurrency.

> They think they can just unload to some sucker for a big payday. See also the entirety of cryptocurrency.

That's also the entirety of the biotech VC industry, except even more so.

Biotech startups require far more capital to make it to market than tech startups, so biotech VCs take the role of early stage funding for R&D. Then the startup IPOs (with zero revenue and unlimited scientific risk) and uses that to fund its clinical trials, while the investors dump their stock. Then, because ramping up manufacturing and quality control takes even more money, the biotech startup sells out to a pharmaceutical company once its passed its trials or the results are promising enough to take the risk, closing the financing loop. Most of these startups stop existing before they even earn a single dollar in revenue, either because they fail or they're acquired by someone who can actually manufacture and distribute their product at scale. This has been the way of the industry for at least the last 20-30 years ever since the small molecule cliff hit like a brick wall.

So, the VC industry whose standard operating procedure is to unload companies onto public investors long before anyone even knows whether the drug or device would work, wouldn't touch Theranos with a thirty foot pole.

Re: Analyzing data from Silicon Valley ventures and founders prosecuted for fraud

#73
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right I'm not saying that Zuck's staff doesn't know how to calculate MAU or ARR. I'm saying I'm not sure we can trust the 'median' (median on a scale of super-scrupulous to outright-dishonest) CEO is not counting things like inactive cohorts, newsletter subscribers, website hits when counting 'users'... or being very optimistic about whether a customer will renew when calculating 'recurring revenue' I may be wrong! B…

The “Active” part of “Monthly Active Users” can mean an awful lot of things

For example, at a major social media company I worked at in the early 2010s, bots/spam users were deleted after earnings calls, not before. IIRC an employee had the temerity to ask "Is this honest behavior" in an all hands!??!

Re: Analyzing data from Silicon Valley ventures and founders prosecuted for fraud

#74
I wonder how it compares to small business fraud. I know of multiple frauds in non venture backed ecom and real estate development. In some cases the person involved seems to be a professional fraudster, having had no real employment outside of fraudulent businesses.

Re: Analyzing data from Silicon Valley ventures and founders prosecuted for fraud

#75
post #64
post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seems the current SEC head is a moron. https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/article/sec-chair-defends-...

I am torn on this issue, because I would love to disincentivize short-term thinking at the executive level, and I initially considered this a decent move in that regard.

I mean, maybe a disinterested moron is better for some things? Would be great if companies only had to report once a year.

Re: Analyzing data from Silicon Valley ventures and founders prosecuted for fraud

#76
I once worked at a startup that did this. They raised over $1m+ on a slideshow and a fake mockup while convincing investors they had a working product. This company was eventually acquired and swallowed up. From what I understand it didn't make it to the market they intended.

Re: Analyzing data from Silicon Valley ventures and founders prosecuted for fraud

#77
post #3

A lot of 'numbers' startups cite are basically fake I think. Like if someone says we have this many users as a statement to TechCrunch you have no idea what they are actually calculating But there is a clear line that gets crossed if you start actually making a database of millions of synthetic users and that's what happened with 'Frank' that sold to JP Morgan and eventually the founder was prosecuted

Not just users, but number of companies. So many startups list out all the companies using their products, who also happen to be an army of startups. I doubt they're all using each others products, just doing what they can to juice each companies perceived metrics.

Supposedly B2B SaaS companies in YC have been known to enter into agreements to “buy” each others’ products so they can all book more users and revenue despite a single dollar not changing hands.

Re: Analyzing data from Silicon Valley ventures and founders prosecuted for fraud

#79
post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Was it fudging expected numbers (forecast), or fudging actual numbers (revenue, etc)? VCs are looking for a long-tail, if you have a 1% chance at 5B - 1T market, this is more interesting and impactful than 10% chance at 5M market. And yes, 1% chance of success is considered to be unrealistic by common sense standards.

IME, it's about pushing you to overextend on the forecast, so that when you don't meet it, they get more control or claw back funds promised or given. Fudging actual numbers is a dangerous and illegal game to play and never pays off, except in the edge cases (e.g., Enron... but usually you have to pay the Piper).

Interesting, this presents an meta for an early stage investor. Fund a company with a BS forecast based on your ability to make money on the claw back provisions.

Re: Analyzing data from Silicon Valley ventures and founders prosecuted for fraud

#80
post #79
post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IME, it's about pushing you to overextend on the forecast, so that when you don't meet it, they get more control or claw back funds promised or given. Fudging actual numbers is a dangerous and illegal game to play and never pays off, except in the edge cases (e.g., Enron... but usually you have to pay the Piper).

Interesting, this presents an meta for an early stage investor. Fund a company with a BS forecast based on your ability to make money on the claw back provisions.

You're never going to make money from that. By the time you're presented with the opportunity to use them, you're on the losing end.
Post reply on HN