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DeepMind's WeatherNext model achieves breakthrough forecasting cyclones

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Re: DeepMind's WeatherNext model achieves breakthrough forecasting cyclones

#41

Post by geertj »

polairscience wrote: post #39
tcumulus wrote: post #32

Everything in AI seems to be focused on LLMs lately. But in my opinion, powerful problem-specific models like this are even more interesting. The SOTA AI models used in weather forecasting are already outperforming the classic NWP models while being orders of magnitude more efficient (inference). Most are based on multi scale (hierarchical) Graph Neural Networks, an architecture which is not often talked about. The o…

You say this as if you don't need he MWP models to train the AI models? The accuracy of the AI Prediction depends entirely on the quality of the training dataset...

I would imagine this would be trained on actual historical weather data instead?

Re: DeepMind's WeatherNext model achieves breakthrough forecasting cyclones

#42

Post by pbronez »

tcumulus wrote: post #32

Everything in AI seems to be focused on LLMs lately. But in my opinion, powerful problem-specific models like this are even more interesting. The SOTA AI models used in weather forecasting are already outperforming the classic NWP models while being orders of magnitude more efficient (inference). Most are based on multi scale (hierarchical) Graph Neural Networks, an architecture which is not often talked about. The o…

Insightful paper, thanks for sharing. Two things stand out to me.

First, it reinforces that you want methods that get better with more data. It emphasizes that the current approach cannot improve based on historic data - that’s the opportunity that ML based approaches exploit.

Second, it highlights that mature legacy solutions are tough competitors. They benefit from extensive tuning and real world feedback. Even when you have a genuinely better approach, it will take meaningful time & effort to achieve the current standard.

Patience and solid long term strategy are needed to make progress in these situations. You need confidence that your approach will win long term, backed by enough money & time to prove yourself correct.

Re: DeepMind's WeatherNext model achieves breakthrough forecasting cyclones

#43

Post by purplemoonx »

Predicting big weather events is not that hard even with 50 year old technology.

What's hard is predicting details, like exactly where it will rain, what the slope of the beach is today (many people don't even know this changes drastically daily and why it is important), wave height, ocean depth today where people swim, water temperature, shorebreak, and knowing with certainty when rain becomes ice/sleet/snow and what routes will be affected, accurate wind speed, accurate temperature throughout different parts of the region, and what the weather next week will be.

We can't do any of those things with conventional equipment, but we can with training data and algorithms. So I'm very excited about the role of algorithmic prediction in weather, but not for the kind we already know how to forecast (without AI) but being able to glean useful insights that matter to people who live, work and play in the weather.

Re: DeepMind's WeatherNext model achieves breakthrough forecasting cyclones

#44

Post by scarmig »

xyzzy123 wrote: post #27
trescenzi wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ironically typhoon forecasting, at this moment, is more valuable. These predictions are matters of life, death, and billions of dollars in damage.

I know this is uncharitable and I am wrong but I am having trouble coming up with concrete scenarios where you die with 2 days notice but survive with 3. I am nonethless a believer that more accurate forecasting has value.

Imagine you've got to evacuate a hundred thousand people. That extra day is incredibly valuable.

Re: DeepMind's WeatherNext model achieves breakthrough forecasting cyclones

#45

Post by purplemoonx »

fcanesin wrote: post #10

Maybe was this that was the last drop for Sundar. Demis: "I have a new amazing breakthrough" Sundar: "Great! We really need a answer to Sol and Fable" Demis: "They are completely owned in typhoon forecasting"

[flagged]

Re: DeepMind's WeatherNext model achieves breakthrough forecasting cyclones

#46

Post by pbronez »

Cool how they integrated both huge machine-scale data and smaller human-curated data for this project.

> The model was co-trained on two distinct data modalities: global weather dynamics and expert-curated historical cyclone observations. By training end-to-end on nearly 20 terabytes of global atmospheric data and the historical IBTrACS database spanning nearly 5,000 historical storms, the model learns complex atmospheric patterns and how to model extreme weather.

Re: DeepMind's WeatherNext model achieves breakthrough forecasting cyclones

#47

Post by MagicMoonlight »

xyzzy123 wrote: post #27
trescenzi wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ironically typhoon forecasting, at this moment, is more valuable. These predictions are matters of life, death, and billions of dollars in damage.

I know this is uncharitable and I am wrong but I am having trouble coming up with concrete scenarios where you die with 2 days notice but survive with 3. I am nonethless a believer that more accurate forecasting has value.

[dead]

Re: DeepMind's WeatherNext model achieves breakthrough forecasting cyclones

#48

Post by [deleted] »

mattlondon wrote: post #9
moktonar wrote: post #4

They should try to forecast earthquakes, that would really be a breakthrough If anything better than random comes out

Google has the early warning system that gives people maybe 20-30s to e.g. turn off gas, stop vehicles, get under something solid. There was a lot of news recently about how this saved many thousands of lives in Venezuela I think it was. But hey let's all keep shitting on Google because their coding agent is slightly worse than SOTA.

[deleted]

Re: DeepMind's WeatherNext model achieves breakthrough forecasting cyclones

#49

Post by plantain »

geertj wrote: post #41
polairscience wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You say this as if you don't need he MWP models to train the AI models? The accuracy of the AI Prediction depends entirely on the quality of the training dataset...

I would imagine this would be trained on actual historical weather data instead?

Historical weather data is discrete. You need continuous state for weather modelling which is currently achieved through conventional reforecasts using those historical observations.

Re: DeepMind's WeatherNext model achieves breakthrough forecasting cyclones

#50

Post by RandomLensman »

geertj wrote: post #41
polairscience wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You say this as if you don't need he MWP models to train the AI models? The accuracy of the AI Prediction depends entirely on the quality of the training dataset...

I would imagine this would be trained on actual historical weather data instead?

From a quick read: ECMWF and IBTrACS data - the former is model based (with measurement data crunched), the latter purely observational.
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