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Analyzing data from Silicon Valley ventures and founders prosecuted for fraud

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Re: Analyzing data from Silicon Valley ventures and founders prosecuted for fraud

#21

Post by qwery »

umpalumpaaa wrote: post #15
Zigurd wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the current environment I doubt Elizabeth Holmes would go to prison. She would be saying the machine would work by early next year. After all a drop of blood is just a smaller quantity. Making the machine work is just an engineering problem. If she were really clever she would recruit a social media army of all the weird conspiracy theorists who think "medbeds" are real. Of course now we know that a drop of capill…

The big difference was that she was in the medical field. She used her machines that worked unreliability on patients and caused actual damage to humans. Then she noticed that this could be a problem and switched to blood analyzer from Siemens. But she still continued to say that the machines do work. She lied to investors. I still feel her case is a lot different to what musk is doing. I think you can definitely say…

> caused actual damage to humans

You might need to qualify that a bit harder or someone could quite easily point out that all of these worthless shitdribblers cause actual damage to humans. They all lie, they all continue to claim that they hold the future in their feeble sticky hands. Just to take, take, take. You seem fixated on lying being a problem but only one of these two liars causes you to feel that her case is different? Maybe the difference between the two is in the lie of the beholder.

Re: Analyzing data from Silicon Valley ventures and founders prosecuted for fraud

#23

Post by aliasxneo »

sjsdaiuasgdia wrote: post #20
aliasxneo wrote: post #19

“Our theoretical framework captures how entrepreneurs facing minor, wide, and extreme expectation-reality gaps engage in evermore sophisticated efforts to detach the venture’s externally projected appearance from its actual operational reality.” Look, I’m not promoting fraud at all, but having been doing seed raising for the last eight months, there have been many times where I thought the only way to compete was by…

Good on you for saying no to committing fraud! It really sucks that this is unusual enough that it warrants a bit of positive feedback!

I’m really not trying to virtue signal. There’s a lot more nuance to my reasoning to leave the traditional VC game. All of them led me to declaring it fundamentally incompatible with my world view. Which then led me to my current path of attempting to form a syndicate of like-minded individuals.

But this study validates a lot of feelings I’ve had over the last several months. There’s a ton of people that never get caught, of course.

Re: Analyzing data from Silicon Valley ventures and founders prosecuted for fraud

#24

Post by sedawkgrep »

aliasxneo wrote: post #19

“Our theoretical framework captures how entrepreneurs facing minor, wide, and extreme expectation-reality gaps engage in evermore sophisticated efforts to detach the venture’s externally projected appearance from its actual operational reality.” Look, I’m not promoting fraud at all, but having been doing seed raising for the last eight months, there have been many times where I thought the only way to compete was by…

Thank you for having an ethical standard and the will to adhere to it.

Re: Analyzing data from Silicon Valley ventures and founders prosecuted for fraud

#25

Post by sjsdaiuasgdia »

aliasxneo wrote: post #23
sjsdaiuasgdia wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good on you for saying no to committing fraud! It really sucks that this is unusual enough that it warrants a bit of positive feedback!

I’m really not trying to virtue signal. There’s a lot more nuance to my reasoning to leave the traditional VC game. All of them led me to declaring it fundamentally incompatible with my world view. Which then led me to my current path of attempting to form a syndicate of like-minded individuals. But this study validates a lot of feelings I’ve had over the last several months. There’s a ton of people that never get ca…

Oh, I did not take it as virtue signaling at all! I do actually admire you for looking at a dirty game and saying "I will not play this, I will find a better way."

If I ever win the lottery, I'm going to create the Joseph Welch Foundation. The foundation will give monetary awards to people who have demonstrably pushed back against corruption, lies, and bullshit.

For those who don't recognize the name, Joseph Welch is who said "Have you no sense of decency, sir, at long last, have you left no sense of decency?" to Joseph McCarthy.

Too few people remember Welch. McCarthy was the asshole but his name is remembered more. I see this as an error we have made with our societal memory. It would be better to remember Welch, and only remember McCarthy as "that red scare guy".

Re: Analyzing data from Silicon Valley ventures and founders prosecuted for fraud

#26

Post by akiselev »

Zigurd wrote: post #16
umpalumpaaa wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The big difference was that she was in the medical field. She used her machines that worked unreliability on patients and caused actual damage to humans. Then she noticed that this could be a problem and switched to blood analyzer from Siemens. But she still continued to say that the machines do work. She lied to investors. I still feel her case is a lot different to what musk is doing. I think you can definitely say…

Are you a biochemist? Would the Theranos machine have worked with new tests using new reagents? Is the needed blood volume not similar to, for example, payload capacity? Are we discriminating against people who affect an unusual voice?

It wouldn't have worked, period. You can't use capillary blood for the kind of blood tests they were claiming to. It's statistically impossible because the sample isn't big enough and drawing more capillary blood doesn't improve the SNR. Two samples taken at the same time from different spots on the same finger can yield wildly different results.

Everyone in diagnostic medicine knows this (they've been dealing with this problem since the glucose finger prick test). That's why no biotech VC ever invested in Theranos and they had to get tech VCs and fancy board members like Henry Kissinger. A cursory glance at the proposal by someone qualified would have shut that down immediately, but tech VCs don't do due diligence anymore.

Re: Analyzing data from Silicon Valley ventures and founders prosecuted for fraud

#27

Post by throwaway89864 »

aliasxneo wrote: post #19

“Our theoretical framework captures how entrepreneurs facing minor, wide, and extreme expectation-reality gaps engage in evermore sophisticated efforts to detach the venture’s externally projected appearance from its actual operational reality.” Look, I’m not promoting fraud at all, but having been doing seed raising for the last eight months, there have been many times where I thought the only way to compete was by…

Was it fudging expected numbers (forecast), or fudging actual numbers (revenue, etc)?

VCs are looking for a long-tail, if you have a 1% chance at 5B - 1T market, this is more interesting and impactful than 10% chance at 5M market.

And yes, 1% chance of success is considered to be unrealistic by common sense standards.

Re: Analyzing data from Silicon Valley ventures and founders prosecuted for fraud

#28

Post by close04 »

aliasxneo wrote: post #19

“Our theoretical framework captures how entrepreneurs facing minor, wide, and extreme expectation-reality gaps engage in evermore sophisticated efforts to detach the venture’s externally projected appearance from its actual operational reality.” Look, I’m not promoting fraud at all, but having been doing seed raising for the last eight months, there have been many times where I thought the only way to compete was by…

You highlighted the basis for widespread corruption. At some point you no longer do it to get an unfair advantage, you do it because without it you get an unfair disadvantage. Widespread fraud is no different.

Re: Analyzing data from Silicon Valley ventures and founders prosecuted for fraud

#29

Post by satvikpendem »

aliasxneo wrote: post #19

“Our theoretical framework captures how entrepreneurs facing minor, wide, and extreme expectation-reality gaps engage in evermore sophisticated efforts to detach the venture’s externally projected appearance from its actual operational reality.” Look, I’m not promoting fraud at all, but having been doing seed raising for the last eight months, there have been many times where I thought the only way to compete was by…

What is nontraditional? Seems like it could be even more rife with fraud with lower oversight.

Re: Analyzing data from Silicon Valley ventures and founders prosecuted for fraud

#30

Post by giwook »

firasd wrote: post #3

A lot of 'numbers' startups cite are basically fake I think. Like if someone says we have this many users as a statement to TechCrunch you have no idea what they are actually calculating But there is a clear line that gets crossed if you start actually making a database of millions of synthetic users and that's what happened with 'Frank' that sold to JP Morgan and eventually the founder was prosecuted

And then she started paying for facials and stuff as part of her necessary legal fees or something.

"But your honor! I need to look presentable to the jury when they're convicting me of rampant fraud!"

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