181–190 of 201 posts
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In the US. With how much they've invested in AI they need the entire planet to pay, and pay lots. What's the capex expenditure of Magnificent 7 just this year? Close to $1tn?
They need it to be roughly as popular as first world cell phone usage for a 5-7yr ROI.
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models are stuck in time. eventually the world moves forward and it is trained on too much obsolete data. training cannot end for LLMs intrinsically. it's not some fixed cost. it's an ongoing one.
> eventually the world moves forward and it is trained on too much obsolete data. This is why LLMs are never going to be AGI. Humans don’t become obsolete just because they age.
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>Anthropic has 80%+ margins on inference. That's like saying my delivery company is profitable because with current gas prices, my margin is 80%. Yea, what about all money you spent to get there? You still profitable then?
Yes, actually. Anthropic has gross margins of 40%+, hit $75B ARR last month, and (as of this quarter) is profitable.
SpaceX also painted a pretty rosey picture of their financials, but when they filed for IPO it became clear they were doing some real cherry picking and in actuality they were losing a ton of money.
If they really were doing so well they would file publicly and be rushing to IPO.
I guarantee they are losing billions per quarter. You can say they make money on inference, but that is irrelevant. That doesn't include all of their overhead and indirect costs let alone model training.
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> the average worker can do most of their tasks with 5% of the api costs using an open source model from China and achieve the same results. Are you also going to tell me that everyone will be switching to their favorite Linux desktop distribution over Mac & Win because it's "free"?
We're talking about corporations here. Of course they use Linux, and of course they'll provide their employees access to the LLMs that cost half the price and are 90% as good.
In case it's the former, nobody in the corporate world is using Linux desktops.
And let me know when your parents start using the Chinese LLMs on their own.
I don't know a single white collar worker who isn't using AI for their job. Not like forced, but like "Oh damn, this bot thing can do a lot of tedious leg work for me". To think that people won't pay $60-$80/mo to continue using it is wild to me. In a white collar environment it pays for itself in a few hours of use. If you focus on how much value AI brings to people (mostly in time saved), the bubble hardly looks bu…
> Did Uber die when a trip across town went from $3 to $13? No. It's giving more rides than ever, 10x more than when it was $3. Uber has a fairly large moat: the regulatory mess they’ve waded through and the collection of drivers willing to drive for them. Sure, it’s probably easier to start a competitor now than 20 years ago, but there’s still a substantial network effect — a transportation service needs a lot of ca…
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1) Ed Zitron has one of the worst track records in the AI space. He's consistently wrong about everything. Every major prediction he has made over the past five years has aged terribly. 2) After calling the doom of OpenAI and Anthropic for half a decade, Zitron pivoted this year into accusing these companies of financial engineering and fraud. I have read the "article" you linked and he makes this accusation with no…
Anthropic has not released an official EBITDA figure.
We knew they were maybe at 30-40% margin a few months ago but now it’s looking like they are operating at more like 70-80% margin.
The new Nvidia chips and the improved inference stack is only making this situation better for them.
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We're talking about corporations here. Of course they use Linux, and of course they'll provide their employees access to the LLMs that cost half the price and are 90% as good.
I can't tell if you're being serious or sarcastic. In case it's the former, nobody in the corporate world is using Linux desktops. And let me know when your parents start using the Chinese LLMs on their own.
This is the wrong comparison. An LLM provider isn't like a desktop OS; it's like a server OS. And everybody is using Linux for their servers.
> And let me know when your parents start using the Chinese LLMs on their own.
That already happened. To be fair, they're Chinese.
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Anthropic has not released an official EBITDA figure.
It’s a not very well kept secret in the industry that Anthropic has been profitable for some time now and there are margins are only getting better. We knew they were maybe at 30-40% margin a few months ago but now it’s looking like they are operating at more like 70-80% margin. The new Nvidia chips and the improved inference stack is only making this situation better for them.
I would rather say it's been a very well kept secret if it's true, which I highly doubt. It also makes absolutely no sense; so far, Anthropic has taken every opportunity they had to release good numbers. Why would they keep it secret if they were wildly profitable?
None of this makes any sense. The only thing that makes sense is that Anthropic isn't profitable at all, and is burning investor money to stay afloat. Else, why keep raising tens of billions and only release vague annualized numbers?
Genuinely, this makes no sense at all. If you want to convince people otherwise, you need more than just "oh, it's a secret, but we all know it."
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Google funds Anthropic | v Anthropic promises to rent Google's TPUs | v Google guarantees the infrastructure needed to fulfil Anthropic's promise | v Wall Street lends against Google's guarantee | v Borrowed money buys Google-designed TPUs | v The TPU purchases "prove" demand for Google TPUs | v Anthropic's compute capacity and valuation rise | v Google's investment in Anthropic rises in value | v Higher valuations j…
Anthropic has 80%+ margins on inference. Google has 30%+ margins on compute. Both parties have discovered a literal money printer. The payback period is At those unit economics, anyone not borrowing aggressively here to create more money printers is a moron.
If you read the interviews where Dario said this closely, you'll find that he's talking in hypothethicals.
We will have to wait for the S-1 to get audited figures, until then, only insiders have any idea (and only the accountants can be sure).
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Because again, we haven't seen further reports. As always, we are debating financials on a company that doesn't have to disclose them regularly.
We most certainly have: https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/anthropics-gross-margin-i... The companies are growing so rapidly that citing their financials from several months ago is practically worthless.
This is all un-audited speculation. Even audited financials often have massive weirdness, but unaudited revenue/margin numbers are basically garbage.
> The companies are growing so rapidly that citing their financials from several months ago is practically worthless.
I wish I lived in a world where this was true. Unless their inference margins are fat enough to pay for training and employees (including SBC) then their historical financials are really important.
Again, I could be wrong here but without the S-1 nobody really knows (unless they work for Anthropic, in which case they should really not be commenting in this thread).